UPDATED with conclusion: Request for determining value of 145.022-68

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I would be grateful to anyone who would like to offer an opinion on the value of the following 145.022-68 transitional Speedmaster. In particular, I am asking for help determining the value (USD).

This is a bit tricky because a friend offered this to me and said to tell him how much I think it's worth. There seem to be two price spectrums, one for the discriminating collector, and the other for the Phillips inspired, money to burn enthusiast. A collector will pay more for condition, and less for an average watch, if buying at all. At auction, money launderers will throw down cash for a good story. The question then is should I buy it as a collector and should he sell it if he can get more from a knucklehead.

The backstory to consider is that the watch came from the estate of the original owner, with box and papers, including sales receipt. In addition, it was purchased at a US military exchange and MAY have been worn by a Navy sailor during service in the Vietnam war. There is no documentation yet but it might be available. This is not included in the price but it’s a factor in my thinking.

Using Sir William’s price categories, these are my thoughts for your consideration.

CASE: Good (-). It has scratches from wear but no nicks or gouges. The edges are generally sharp, and where worn, it is worn from wear as opposed to polishing. A sympathetic light polish by an experienced watchmaker would make the top lug surfaces more attractive and raise this to a Good +, but a polish may stand out against the rest of the watch and detract from the original owner factor. As a collector, leave it alone.

BEZEL: Very Good. No marks, some deterioration around inside near the crystal. Correct DON.

BRACLET: Incorrect, no value. It is possible that I may be able to get a correct 1117/575, but it’s not part of the value now.

DIAL: GOODish. Hard to see under the scratched crystal. It appears undamaged, with no dirt, scratches, and the printing looks good. Also appears correct and original. Not a particularly attractive black, but seems typical of this reference. A bit of a crap shoot at this moment.

LUME: Good (-) . In a reference other than the 145.022-68, this lume would be fair. It appears original, mostly intact on the lower stepped part of the dial, but the markers on the upper part of the dial are largely worn away. This also seems typical of this reference. This impacts the DIAL above, as there is lume dust spread around the dial, which is a negative. It might impact the movement, but the movement will receive a service as part of the sale.

HANDs: Fair. Appear original. Paint is not great but appears intact. Without the history, I would suspect a repaint based only on appearance in the photos. In person, I don’t think they were repainted. But there’s deterioration and the minute hand is kind of nasty.

This is the hard part.

COLLECTOR: 6000 to 8000 for the Head. 1000 to 2000 for box and papers. 7000 to 10000?

ENTHUSIAST: 7500 TO 8500 for the Head. 1500 to 2500 for box and papers. 9000 to 10500?

Hot market, maybe add 2K? Hard to find factor?

QUESTION: Does this seem accurate to you? Too low, too high?


Pictures:


Thanks.

EDIT: This is not a veiled for sale thread.
Edited:
 
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As someone who used to value watches for one of the biggest gray dealers, you are definitely following the right train of thought in your approach to valuing the watch. I have been “out of the game” for several years and will refrain from commenting on the exact dollar figures you’ve thrown out, but it seems to be in the ballpark.

Going to eBay’s “Sold” section and finding comps can help you narrow things down a bit. You can do the same with auction houses and scour their sales, but it used to be difficult determining if the published sales price included the buyers’ premium.

Only other insight I’d add is regarding provenance. If you cannot prove who the watch belonged to, it is hearsay, and theoretically doesn’t affect the watch’s value. If you knew that watch was worn during service in the Vietnam war, the right buyer may find that adds a level of appeal and pay a premium — but anecdotally, it never seemed to add much for run-of-the-mill (non collectors) references.
 
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27,3xx,xxx serial puts it right towards the end of the -68, so that's kind of cool. Your assessment is about right to me. Personally, the lume (missing on the upper part of the step) would probably be enough to put me off. If you're really keen to get one of these, then aim for roughly (ideally a bit less than) the Good price from The Price Chart, given some of the detracting characteristics. The box and papers are a nice add-on, but I wouldn't value them quite as high as your estimate personally. As to the story, it is nice to know something about the watch's history, but unless/until its verified, it's just a nice story and doesn't add any value for me.

I know these are sort of rare, but you could probably find one with a better dial with a little more patience. On the other hand, I'm sure this watch would look great on the wrist for day-to-day wear!
 
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27,3xx,xxx serial puts it right towards the end of the -68, so that's kind of cool. Your assessment is about right to me. Personally, the lume (missing on the upper part of the step) would probably be enough to put me off. If you're really keen to get one of these, then aim for roughly (ideally a bit less than) the Good price from The Price Chart, given some of the detracting characteristics. The box and papers are a nice add-on, but I wouldn't value them quite as high as your estimate personally. As to the story, it is nice to know something about the watch's history, but unless/until its verified, it's just a nice story and doesn't add any value for me.

I know these are sort of rare, but you could probably find one with a better dial with a little more patience. On the other hand, I'm sure this watch would look great on the wrist for day-to-day wear!

Thanks, this is helpful and not unexpected. Another friend here said something similar. He summed it up, condition over set.

I really, really want to like this and recognize the fever. It's hard to be rational. Am I right, am I wrong?

Thanks for taking the time to provide a candid and thoughtful response.
 
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We've all been there... I know I certainly have. When I look back, the ones I had to force myself to like are the ones I wouldn't buy again on a do-over.

I will say though that some of these buys were very good lessons that I wouldn't have learned without handling them...

If the price is really good (around $5k at the very most), it might be worth it, but if it's being listed as Very Good, then, for me, it's a no.
 
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I think you’re overthinking it. Id assess it as good overall (or possibly slightly less than good), plus 500-1000 for box and papers.

Also it seems like you’re the one doing the work and if so you should be rewarded with a fair, private sale price. If the seller wants top dollar they should be doing the research and setting the price.

The backstory adds zero monetary value to me, it’s simply interesting. I’m also not sure why your randomly adding 2k??
 
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I agree with what's been said, I wouldn't try to force yourself to fall in love with it just b/c it has papers etc. I do however think it will look nice once cleaned up, a new crystal will make this watch come to life. The bezel is in excellent condition and adds quite a bit of value. The dial is not terrible, but there is missing lume which detracts from overall condition and valuation. The case can be refinished at reasonable cost as well, so there is a lot to like. This could be a nice daily watch, it all comes down to price....$5K seems to be reasonable.
 
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Something is funny about the sweep hand, in particular the shape of the lume plot. Maybe it was sloppily repainted and some of the paint spilled over onto the lume? Anyway, I agree that the missing lume on the dial is a fairly major issue, I don't like it TBH.
 
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The backstory adds zero monetary value to me, it’s simply interesting. I’m also not sure why your randomly adding 2k??

That's the potential irrational exuberance effect of an auction. Doesn't make it worth 2k more, just that it might bring more. Which impacts me if I wanted to buy it on the open market, it might cost me more to find another one.

Probably over thinking it 👍
 
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Something is funny about the sweep hand, in particular the shape of the lume plot. Maybe it was sloppily repainted and some of the paint spilled over onto the lume? Anyway, I agree that the missing lume on the dial is a fairly major issue, I don't like it TBH.

The paint does look off, right? Nothing else in the watch looks touched so it's a little strange to think just the hands were touched up. But the paint seems a little lumpy.

Is it possible the tritium ate into the paint, or lifted it some? Could the hands have had less than perfect paint when it left the factory?

The sweep lume is darker, which I have seen on other -68s. Guessing, it seems it could be original. But it's a smaller open area, like you said. Certainly less than perfect.
 
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Very thoughtful write up on your assessment. I may be in the minority but I disagree with your assessment of the case. I would take a worn but unpolished case over a "brand new" looking polished example any day of the week. Taking it to a watchmaker for a careful, sympathetic polish would be a downgrade for me in category not upgrade.
 
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That's the potential irrational exuberance effect of an auction. Doesn't make it worth 2k more, just that it might bring more. Which impacts me if I wanted to buy it on the open market, it might cost me more to find another one.

Probably over thinking it 👍

There’s a few points for me there though;

1. An auction result isn’t guaranteed. There’s the pain/gain of it possibly going high due to emotional over exuberance or two bidders who simply must have it, but there’s also the possibility of it being a quiet day for buyers, competition from other lots etc that means it falls under market.
2. To my earlier point, if the seller wants to put in the hard yards or take a gamble at auction, more power to them. In this case it seems they’re sitting back while you’re doing the research to determine how correct the watch is and what a fair value is. If you’re doing this why would you then pay a premium?
2. With an auction the seller is potentially waiting months to be paid and will then pay a significant percentage to the auction house, eating into the final bid. In a private sale, the seller receives the whole amount immediately.
 
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Very thoughtful write up on your assessment. I may be in the minority but I disagree with your assessment of the case. I would take a worn but unpolished case over a "brand new" looking polished example any day of the week. Taking it to a watchmaker for a careful, sympathetic polish would be a downgrade for me in category not upgrade.

Completely agree and that’s why Good is a fair assessment in my view. It’s relatively unpolished but has certainly seen significant use and has surface scratches and knocks that prevent it being Very Good or Excellent
 
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Completely agree and that’s why Good is a fair assessment in my view. It’s relatively unpolished but has certainly seen significant use and has surface scratches and knocks that prevent it being Very Good or Excellent

Cant argue with you there. The only rebuttal I have to offer is vintage watch collecting, at least in its current state with all the shenanigans that including laser welding, it is so rare to find a watch case in truly unpolished condition that to me it warrants placement in the highest category possible.
 
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LUME: Good (-) ... but the movement will receive a service as part of the sale.
...
COLLECTOR: 6000 to 8000 for the Head. 1000 to 2000 for box and papers. 7000 to 10000?
7,000 USD including a service by a qualified watchmaker - resulting in a likely nice Transitional 68' daily wearer - seems reasonable to me.
 
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The paint does look off, right? Nothing else in the watch looks touched so it's a little strange to think just the hands were touched up. But the paint seems a little lumpy.

Is it possible the tritium ate into the paint, or lifted it some? Could the hands have had less than perfect paint when it left the factory?

The sweep lume is darker, which I have seen on other -68s. Guessing, it seems it could be original. But it's a smaller open area, like you said. Certainly less than perfect.

TBH, I just mentioned the hand issue because I happened to see it, but I think I would get used to the hands. The dial bothers me more.
 
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D, As we know, William's criterion/descriptions are to be applied very strictly and I will give my thoughts here basis my conversations when I'd shown him your other watch.

CASE: Good (-)...I agree this is less than Good, probably Fair since the caseback is weak, and the step is definitely not crisp. Otherwise nothing much to add.

BEZEL: Very Good. ...Disagree, this is definitely worse, hardly catching up to Good because of the light erosions/ light scrapes around the top inner upper half. Under a loupe or even simply in the hand the rim will show dings - I can see one in pics.

BRACLET: Incorrect, no value. ...Yup

DIAL: GOODish....Again I disagree. This dial is far from approaching Good. With that amount of lume loss, I would put it at Fair or Fair+ at best.

LUME: Good (-) . In a reference other than the 145.022-68, this lume would be fair. This also seems typical of this reference. ...I am not sure why if at all the lume on the -68 should be considered any different than 012-67, but it still keep the dial at Fair/Fair+.

HANDs: Fair....Agree.

Net-net, it's a massive stretch to call this a Good, I would put it at a solid Fair condition, and hence value it at 4.5-5K for the head. You may add 1.5-2K. Overall not more than 6-7K if doing the match coldly. Enthusiasm/eagerness to add it to your pile should not cost more than a 1K more.

If I were in your position, I would apply the William test 😉 before pulling the trigger - Sleep over it, look at it 2-3 times, if you like it more and more, go for it. If you like it less and less, let it go. Easier said than done, but it works.
 
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I’d place it at good or slightly better… as well, as cleaning the crystal up would make a massive difference. The DON is in good shape and the dial/hands are attractive and matching.
 
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I owe you all an update. Unusual for me, I took your collective advice and bought a different watch. This was made easier for me because my friend had another -68, but without the set, as well as a DNN.

I am pretty excited, needless to say. This dial set is very nice. The lume and hands are so much better. I think the hands on the other watch would have bothered me, like Dan S said, and perhaps others. The case is similar, and it doesn't have the flat foot crown, but it is still an era crown. There are several watchmaker marks so it received past servicing. The screw heads look okay, so no hacks. The movement is clean, although the gasket had turned to tar so its been awhile since it ran.

This was also a one owner watch, having come from the man who received it as a gift from his parents.

It's being serviced now. I will get a new Omega crystal but keep the crown and no polish on the lugs.

Thanks to all for your advice. Hopefully if this thread gets dug up in the future it will help others with their own difficult decisions.

No more delay, here are the pics: