This kind of proves a point though, and is a point I am quite glad can still be proven (although probably much harder to prove vis a vis 5 years ago). Hard work pays and also this forum really helps a lot with the leg work already. Thanks a lot Lou and all other major contributors.

Eric

 

On the flip side, the internet also helps the seller......they have a bigger pool of idiots to draw from.

 

Good post, Lou, though I will make one qualification. The vintage watch market, like other collectors markets, always reflects the broader economy to some extent. "Biflation" has appeared in certain segments of the broader economy, and I would argue that the same is apparent in collectors markets.

So, for example, while it is undoubtedly true that the best and most sought-after watches (cars, works of art, etc.) have shot up in value over the past few years, and continue rise, the less desirable examples have gone down in value in many cases. That is because those who collect the mid-range (or lower) watches have, as a group, been hit hard by the ongoing crisis (excuse me, "recovery"), and so demand has been reduced while supply has increased.

The supply of high-class examples has also increased (as people are forced to turn assets into cash), but demand – especially for the most coveted models – has largely continued to outpace the supply. Oh, and the higher up the food-chain, the bigger the bubble.

I will add one other nuanced point. There are examples of high-class vintage watches that have slipped through the cracks, in that they have not been caught up in the bubble mania, have come well down from previous high values, and arguably represent terrific value at the moment. Broadly speaking, I would include Vacheron & Constantin in this category. While there are some V&C models that bring big money, there are plenty that are among the best watches ever made, in very good or better condition, that bring remarkably low prices relative to certain other vintages classes, and certainly relative to many contemporary watches.

 

I actually don't like the way how things are moving. Rolex guys are pricing themselves out and branching out to other brands. A few of these dealers are playing the tropical or military cards on watches and it seems that their intended crowd is willing to throw big money into those watches than most of us regular folks. Not good for the majority of us but I guess you can't argue with the market forces. Only time will tell.

 

The same can be said about "values" for many collectible items, including art, cars, etc. It just takes one buyer who fancies an item and the entire concept of a market price is out the window. I recognize that the cognoscenti here are less likely to be those buyers, and it certainly has become far more difficult to get a decent deal on good vintage pieces.

 

Lou, you can use watchcount.com to find out prices for this and other outrageous examples of "more money than sense..."
In this case:

 

I agree. Vintage Rolex prices have (IMO) moved into bubble-ish territory, and it's getting to a point where every single minute detail gets over-hyped into a unique feature that inflates value by a fair amount. That has spilled over into other brands, though VC seems to have been less affected as Tony has mentioned. Vintage UG has really been affected by this.

 

The usual driver of a significant bubble burst is speculation. The market is inundated with new players only with the hopes of selling for more than they paid, with little or no interest in the actual item they are buying. So although there are some of those people who are entering the market, it doesn't haven't the same feel as the collapse of the sports card market in the 90's, for example. So probably a levelling or modest correction to be expected at some point, but probably not a massive downward adjustment in prices. Just my opinion of course.

 

I should add that Hodinkee featured (as a negative example) a website where you could "build your own vintage watch" , which in this case was a fake Rolex Comex Submariner. Another example of how the Rolex bubble is fueling all sorts of craziness, and all sorts of opportunities for the unscrupulous.

 

All true Lou, every word of it, even the bubble part,
but bubbles always last longer than anyone thinks,
and prices always go higher than anyone thinks.
To play devil's advocate for a minute, the second seller
would say, I saw an opportunity there, why didn't you buy it?
In a true secular bull market, paying what seems too high
in the present, will, in the retrospect of time, look like a bargain.
We have a euphemism in my business, "Sold out Bull"
Which of course means they recognized the opportunity
correctly, but sold out way too early and missed the exponential
rise. This kind of markup is sort of an outlier, but it could also portend
of the coming secular bull market in Zenith, couldn't it? In other word's
the beginning, not the top.

 

My feelings to a "T", Tony!(pun intended)
Excellent synopsis! Bravo.
Except the VC part, haven't looked at them

 

Its a shame that speculators are swarming like buzzards onto the classic/vintage market, which leaves the genuine enthusiasts on a limb, i cannot compete with mega bucks dealers hoping to turn a quick buck (pound) with a Rolex/Omega etc, but i suppose its been like this for decades, unfortunately for the real person thats actually likes wearing these timepieces for there own pleasure, its getting beyond there finances.

 

I've been purchasing vintage watches for about a year - ever since my first one was gifted to me and I found this forum. I've always liked watches, without really knowing too much about them. Before enjoying vintage, I owned Cartier, Omega, Rolex, and a JLC. I was always scared of buying vintage ( or even non vintage 'used' ) as all I'd heard about were the stories of fakes and duds, and that you had to be an expert not to get ripped off. But the proliferation of information and knowledge sharing that technology has enabled has changed all of that - as long as you do your homework! I am far from an expert on any aspect if this 'hobby' but I know where to go to get the right info to make a good purchase, and at a reasonable price. I was actually totting up the 'value' of all of mine yesterday, as I was sorting out some insurance, and I was actually a little surprised at the total figure. I'm sure at some point I will sell watches, but I didn't buy them to sell them, I bought them because I think they are wonderful objects that I treasure. But more than that - they are useful to me because I enjoy wearing them. They are as essential to me as a pair of shoes or a belt or something. In that regard, I'm not worried about them being part of a bubble, and I expect not many of us here are...

 

Hadn't seen your post before I posted mine - and I guess I take your point here - of course it would be better if I could afford every watch I wanted, but again, it's a natural consequence of more people with means having access to the 'right' information, and having their eyes opened to what is actually out there.

 

I think the key is stay true to your enthusiasm and not going with the herd mentality. There are many very good underestimated brand that still obscure to those trader (there is thread discussing that now.....talking about helvetia, eterna, rado, alpina even lemania).
We should not let brand blind us into what in essence really make a vintage watch great.

 

Feel your pain guys. Our small dedicated omega vintage lover in here has been joined by few ex vintage rolex collectors. Those wishful thinking vintage Omega sellers found a good market. What we see as ridiculous mark up is still considered cheap by those vintage Rolex collectors.

 

With the rising prices, I think that this highlights the need for focused collections. Like all noobs, when I started, it was all about quantity but as that novelty wore off and I realised which way my interest truly lay, it has become about quality. Other than for fuelling my secondary hobby of watch tinkering, I only bought three watches last year (and one of those was because of that bloody squirrel) so, in fact only two that were on my specific target list. Three months into this year and I am yet to score from the primary list although the tree rat has struck twice with minor purchases.

All the time it remains about the pleasure of owning these watches, I'm not too fussed about the potential of the bubble bursting but if it ever became solely about the investment potential, I think that is the time that I would give up collecting.

 

For me, owning them is secondary, as is the
investment potential. The glorious part is the hunt
and the knowledge gained during the hunt.
I am completely unfocused as a collector, I am
drawn to the iconic, across the spectrum.