Your basically trying to turn emotion into math. It's not gonna happen. Buy what you like at a price you can afford and can live with. I'm sure someone at some point had a chart like this for Beanie Babies.
@Foo2rama I am pretty sure they have, they are simply waiting for the 'peak' to cash in on their watch collections (not gonna mention any names)...
You're really trying to anticipate fashions years or decades in advance and you'd have better luck nailing jelly to the ceiling. I only collect vintage watches and, though the math tells me I should part with some of them, I have never sold anything from my collection. I have bought and flipped a few modern watches along with a few ladies' watches. This is a conversation I have had a few times with collectors in other areas (ie pocket watch or coin collectors) and the example I give is, if you took yourself back 40 years, which of these would you truthfully have chosen yourself as a future investment?
Regardless of what the market is or will be, I buy what I like that isn't hyped too much and typically only precious metal watches as close to spot as possible. Thereby I feel that I am protected from the whims of fashion world and I have a foot in the precious metal investment world. This is only my opinion and not advice.
Hi everyone.... a thought In most of the graphs and models mentioned... The Currency scale is static... but its not the value of what ever currency you use will also fluctuate.. so the axis of currency is not fixed... so that will mess with your modeling... I have always bought watches liked when I can find them over the years.... Heck I remember buying a Zenith 135 for 350$ and another one for 600$ ... I asked a seller how much he wanted... he told me its a special watch and he wanted like 1000$ I told him I can offer 600$ and he said that was twice as much as anyone else ever offered... and he accepted it... Yes this was years ago.... like 1995. But no one but me like them.... everyone wanted a 5512 sub and wanted to pay 1200- 2000 for one... Even today you can find stuff... maybe not as easy but there are alot of really cool watches out there that get overlooked..... I have had very long conversations with individuals over the years @Tony C. , @msnw , Chuck Maddox (RIP) , @hockey , jimb+ ( RIP) and lots of others new collectors at the time ..... I look at a watch on three vectors... 1) dial design 2) case design ( form and function ) 3) movement design and I find a balance between those areas .... and when you look at any of the timepieces I post I think you will see that.... Now I am not a condition snob... they are out there .... with comments like " On that is a nice watch too bad it has a xxxx " ... My reply is do you have one? and by the way its a nice watch. Good Hunting Bill