Start selling pieces from my collection now, or wait a while?

lindo · Dec 5, 2023

I am getting on in life and a series of illnesses have pointed out to me that I do not have many years left.

So for most of this year I have been thinking about selling off my collection of vintage and modern watches. Most are Omega Constellations, Seamasters and Speedmasters, but there are other good pieces.

I do not need to sell, so there is no hurry. And I am NOT looking for offers from members now.

What I am looking for from OF members reading this is a collective view of the current market for vintage watches.

Mine are all in nice condition, no redials, nearly all with original boxes and some with papers, so I know there will be interest, but my reading of the online market, auctions and specialist sellers of vintage watches is that things have gone very quiet.

In Australia for example, over the past year or so our Reserve Bank's constant increasing of the bank rate to try to stop inflation has led to increased prices of goods and services across the board, and growing mortgage stress. My friends selling high quality secondhand jewellery and watches say that the effect of falling disposable incomes has been quite marked on their sales. It does not worry the wealthy, but everyone else has been pulling in their horns.

I am therefore inclined to wait until mid next year, when I hope there will be more collector confidence.

Has anyone else been thinking on these lines?

Evitzee · Dec 6, 2023

50:50 chance of recession next year despite the continuous happy talk of a soft landing. If you can hold out I'd wait until that plays out. But quality merchandise is always in demand if you really need to sell. The bubble in the last couple of years was an anomally, those prices won't be tested for quite awhile, imo.

pdxleaf · Dec 6, 2023

Short answer, yes, always thinking about it. Even though I have purchased a few nice pieces lately, I am mindful that I can't take them with me.

One option, leave them for relatives to dispose as they see fit. The downside is that selling can be difficult and a novice will likely not get full value. The other is do as you are thinking, sell them yourself.

Just thinking about when to sell, it does seem slow, but it also seems that nice condition pieces still hold up. The current economy in the states is in limbo, but some hope we will avoid a recession, which will keep equities stronger and more disposable cash. Another group believes a recession is likely by mid-year. So waiting has risks. It may get better, it may not.

You asked about when, the other question is where. If you have personal relationships with forum members (anyone who have ever called dibs on any of your watches), it might make sense to sell those pieces. It could make the overall task more manageable.

You could think of selling the same as investing. You can try to time the market, but it's not possible. If you sell a few at a time, you will be spreading your risks and rewards. It depends on your timeline too. But if your choices are between selling now or in six months, you may want to start now.

We haven't spoken before but still sorry to hear about your health issues. Thankfully, it sounds like you are able to have some control over these decisions. A lot to be said for that.

cristos71 · Dec 6, 2023

I'd say it all depends on your entry price. If you bought well then it's never a bad time to sell.

JimInOz · Dec 6, 2023

lindo
I am getting on in life .....................

Like you, I'm approaching "Octagenerianism" (only four years away) and have had a couple of health scares.

I was in the garage a few weeks ago looking for something (probably a bloody 10mm socket, still haunt found it) and it suddenly dawned on me how much unused shit I have in crates and boxes. Thing I haven't used for twenty or thirty years and newer things I've used once and decided they were crap so I bought a better version. WTF am I going to do with all of this crap I thought.

Coincidentally, a few days later I saw an article about "Swedish Death Cleaning". It's not as morbid as it sounds and it made me get off my arse and start cleaning.

The main benefits are reduction of clutter, more space to store essential stuff, and the knowledge that my OH or my kids won't be left with the burden of trying to deal with a mountain of stuff they know bugger all about.

So, end of Part 1, Google Swedish Death Cleaning.

Part 2.

Watches. I think they fall into the same category as the stuff in Part 1.
Waiting for the best time to sell is only procrastination, so I think you should look at some of your pieces and test the market.
As @Evitzee noted, good examples will always command good returns.
Trying to get into the peak of the seller market is a bit like waiting for a politician to say something sensible.

After my garage and undies/sock drawer stocktake, I realised I also had many watches that, while they appealed to me at the time, no longer have that attraction so I'll be doing what you're considering.

Whatever way you decide to go, all the best.

Cheers
Jim

Geme81 · Dec 6, 2023

I'm am buying... 😉

omegastar · Dec 6, 2023

What will you do with the money ?

Davidt · Dec 6, 2023

I don’t particularly see the market improving in 2024. In fact I think there’s a reasonable chance of it getting worse. I’d try the market with a few pieces now and simply dollar cost average it over a period of a few months.
I think you’ll tie yourself in knots trying to time the watch market over the next couple of years. If you know you’re going to sell some, I’d just do it when you’re ready and if that’s now, get listing them now.

gbesq · Dec 6, 2023

If you don't need to sell now, and you believe that your family members would rather have cash than the watches, why not consider having another collector whom you trust (perhaps a friend who is also a member of OF) designated to sell your collection after you are gone and remit the funds to your estate? That way you continue to enjoy your collection, but you have assurance that someone you trust, who has knowledge of the market and experience buying and selling, will liquidate your collection after you're gone and get maximum value for your loved ones. You could easily provide for a scenario like this in your will.

Maganator · Dec 6, 2023

I am sorry to hear about your health issues.

I was going to suggest Swedish Death Cleaning but @JimInOz beat me to it.

If none of your family members have shown any interest in watches I would start selling sooner rather than later. Very hard to predict the market and as other have pointed out - quality will always sell.

If you start to sell now you will have more control over what they sell for - rather than leaving it to a family member who may feel guilt for selling and/or have no idea what they are selling.

theluckyluke · Dec 6, 2023

Is there anything you would like to pass down to other family members who would enjoy it? Or could benefit from selling it later on if they need money? Once sold, forever gone. Worth thinking twice.

Then, who knows if the market strengthens or softens further? If you view your watches like investments, the rule would be to sell progressively, assuming you’re making a profit, so you capture the market at various times. It’s also important to consider that you might be the most capable person to get the highest value for these watches, even in the current market, rather than a third-party who isn’t familiar with vintage watches at a later point.

And lastly, from the perspective of « leaving things behind »… having dealt with this situation recently where someone passed away and left lots of things because he didn’t want to sell them. I personally think it’s always better to leave as little as possible, but choose carefully what to pass down. Leaving too many objects behind made it overwhelming and psychologically difficult for us, when it came to deciding what to do with these. We ended up disposing lots of things or giving them to charities, not having the willingness, mental space and time to sell them.

Dan S · Dec 6, 2023

As we all know, the overall market for vintage watches is low at the moment, but truly excellent watches will always sell for a good price. You don't need to sell everything at once. Maybe you can start to thin the herd by offering some top-notch examples to the collectors you know. If you have maintained a "dibs" list, that would be an easy way to begin. It would be a lot easier than listing watches in the for-sale section and responding to a bunch of tire-kickers.

kippyk · Dec 6, 2023

I would recommend to sell now but very slowly. Realistically, your heirs will know nothing about watches and will not enjoy the process of selling them. If they have no interest or would not appreciate owning the watches, I would just sell them. You will be able o reclaim the best value for them, and you will get some pleasure in interfacing with other like-minded collectors who will cherish your prized possessions.

Selling watches takes some time and some effort. Sell one at a time and maybe go from least favorite to most favorite. Once one is sold, shipped, and the transaction is completed, move on to the next watch. Maybe leave a few as heirlooms, but I would provide explicit documentation about the history, value, and expected care of the watches.

SoyuzPilot · Dec 6, 2023

I don't have much of a perspective on the Aus market specifically, but I would guess that it's not too different from the global situation. High interest rates in key markets where debt has been freely available to watch collectors has meant a significant increase in supply. This is mirrored in the classic car market too. I see both markets reacting the same - lower quality pieces are not selling at all, at any price level. Mid-tier pieces, i.e. top quality generics (non-limited editions), mid-tier precious metal (gold), and mid-quality limited edition watches are selling but with discounts in the region of 15%-20% off the top. At the top end, the picture is mixed but in general there are some rare watches from forced-sellers coming to the market and these are still getting good money, but only for the best quality. The US is probably ahead of the curve, and stronger, but has more debt so supply is strong, prices weak. The UK is behind time-wise due to its mortgage market structure (with multi-year discounts), but it's likely about to get a lot worse here (where I am!).

With respect to Swedish Death Cleaning, etc. that's a whole different question of course, and I'm not sure you asked about that. Anyway, I would talk to those who may inherit your collection and ask them what they'd like to inherit. You may get a surprise!

So in summary, I'm expecting it to get a little worse. I'm buying right now - filling holes in my collection and upgrading certain models where I see value - and there is plenty of availability at 20% less than 24 months ago. I feel it will get worse before improving in mid 2025-26.

lindo · Dec 6, 2023

JimInOz
Like you, I'm approaching "Octagenerianism" (only four years away) and have had a couple of health scares.

I was in the garage a few weeks ago looking for something (probably a bloody 10mm socket, still haunt found it) and it suddenly dawned on me how much unused shit I have in crates and boxes. Thing I haven't used for twenty or thirty years and newer things I've used once and decided they were crap so I bought a better version. WTF am I going to do with all of this crap I thought.

Coincidentally, a few days later I saw an article about "Swedish Death Cleaning". It's not as morbid as it sounds and it made me get off my arse and start cleaning.

The main benefits are reduction of clutter, more space to store essential stuff, and the knowledge that my OH or my kids won't be left with the burden of trying to deal with a mountain of stuff they know bugger all about.

So, end of Part 1, Google Swedish Death Cleaning.

Part 2.

Watches. I think they fall into the same category as the stuff in Part 1.
Waiting for the best time to sell is only procrastination, so I think you should look at some of your pieces and test the market.
As @Evitzee noted, good examples will always command good returns.
Trying to get into the peak of the seller market is a bit like waiting for a politician to say something sensible.

After my garage and undies/sock drawer stocktake, I realised I also had many watches that, while they appealed to me at the time, no longer have that attraction so I'll be doing what you're considering.

Whatever way you decide to go, all the best.

Cheers
Jim

Thanks Jim - and everyone else who has given such sound advice.

Your garage sounds just like mine - lots of tools and other stuff I have hung onto for more years than makes sense. And because I still have special projects that need some almost forgotten piece, I can't help feeling that as soon as I have a big clean out I will regret it. My sons have their own garage tools and equipment ( and my daughters could not care less), so I doubt they will want anything from mine. I guess most of it will end up at the recycling shop at our local tip.

You are absolutely right about procrastinating on selling my watches. So in the new year you will see my stuff coming out in OF. I used to sell stuff on eBay, but in recent years it has changed so much that I no longer view it as a safe sales platform.

Cheers to all who responded to my question.

Spacefruit · Dec 6, 2023

I can only speak for Speedmasters. Good ones still sell and in spite of Phillips / Omega taking a dump in everyone's speedmaster collections, I think that's only temporary, and is only affection very high value Speedmasters which were not going to run of the mill collectors like us.

I have noticed that a top Ed white is still $25,000 +. However a shagged Ed White is no longer $12,000-14000 it is $6,000 - $7,000. Lower prices for lower quality.

I recently bought a project 861 Speedmaster for $1500. I was recently offered a top 69 for $12,000 and my counter was refused, citing other offers. So weak for weak, strong for strong. The difference between top and fair has expanded.

The nearly new Rolex market has quite rightly corrected, and may (should?) have further to go. The vintage speedmaster market is not the Rolex market and there are still strong buyers out there, for the good quality.

I have known several collectors of various things (watches, horses, gemstones, paintings) dispose of their entire collections. I have two strong ideas from watching them.

1. Those who sent everything to auction (either all at once or staggered in short space of time), are much happier than those who try to negotiate piece by piece. Any short fall in valuation is more than compensated with piece of mind and not having to deal with individual buyers, and the time it took.

2. Almost without fail, the collectors go back in, albeit in a much reduced way, after a few years, when they realize they are not dead.

To sum up, I will sell them all at once, either to a dealer or an auction house, and enjoy the freedom.(When the time comes).

I might add, that in the UK, selling an entire collection of watches, is tax free, as they are wasting assets. Selling and entire collection bit by bit to different buyers is deemed trading and subject to tax on profit.

Harbormaster · Jan 12, 2024

Spacefruit
I can only speak for Speedmasters. Good ones still sell and in spite of Phillips / Omega taking a dump in everyone's speedmaster collections, I think that's only temporary, and is only affection very high value Speedmasters which were not going to run of the mill collectors like us.

I have noticed that a top Ed white is still $25,000 +. However a shagged Ed White is no longer $12,000-14000 it is $6,000 - $7,000. Lower prices for lower quality.

I recently bought a project 861 Speedmaster for $1500. I was recently offered a top 69 for $12,000 and my counter was refused, citing other offers. So weak for weak, strong for strong. The difference between top and fair has expanded.

The nearly new Rolex market has quite rightly corrected, and may (should?) have further to go. The vintage speedmaster market is not the Rolex market and there are still strong buyers out there, for the good quality.

I have known several collectors of various things (watches, horses, gemstones, paintings) dispose of their entire collections. I have two strong ideas from watching them.

1. Those who sent everything to auction (either all at once or staggered in short space of time), are much happier than those who try to negotiate piece by piece. Any short fall in valuation is more than compensated with piece of mind and not having to deal with individual buyers, and the time it took.

2. Almost without fail, the collectors go back in, albeit in a much reduced way, after a few years, when they realize they are not dead.

To sum up, I will sell them all at once, either to a dealer or an auction house, and enjoy the freedom.(When the time comes).

I might add, that in the UK, selling an entire collection of watches, is tax free, as they are wasting assets. Selling and entire collection bit by bit to different buyers is deemed trading and subject to tax on profit.

lindo · Jan 12, 2024

Thanks again to all who responded to my post. @pdxleaf and @Spacefruit in particular made excellent points. I would have taken the road of an auction sale of the lot, but in Australia there is no auction house I know of that would give the watches the attention (eg good photographs) that they deserve.

So the process begins. I have listed in our private watch sales forum the first one - a Constellation Calendar from 1958 that I think any aspiring vintage Omega collector should consider. If it does not sell here I will go to eBay. I will go on offering the others here in succession, as I want to give my fellow OF acquaintances first dibs.

BlackTalon · Jan 12, 2024

I hope the selloff goes smoothly for you, and you are able to get out from the financial burdens.

Walrus · Jan 12, 2024

Dan S
As we all know, the overall market for vintage watches is low at the moment, but truly excellent watches will always sell for a good price. You don't need to sell everything at once. Maybe you can start to thin the herd by offering some top-notch examples to the collectors you know. If you have maintained a "dibs" list, that would be an easy way to begin. It would be a lot easier than listing watches in the for-sale section and responding to a bunch of tire-kickers.

We prefer bezel kickers thank you.

Start selling pieces from my collection now, or wait a while?

lindo

Evitzee

pdxleaf

cristos71

JimInOz

Geme81

omegastar

Davidt

gbesq

Maganator

theluckyluke

Dan S

kippyk

SoyuzPilot

lindo

Spacefruit

Harbormaster

lindo

BlackTalon

Walrus

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