Speedmaster Tokyo 2020 panda vs. Apollo 35th Anniversary Panda

I found some threads discussing each of these watches individually, but no threads comparing the two, especially their relative long-term collectability and appreciation potential. I am looking for a white/black panda dial Speedmaster and these two are the two obvious candidates. An unworn Tokyo 2020 (522.30.42.30.04.001) is roughly about the same price as a second hand 35th anniversary edition (3569.31.00) in very good condition with box and papers and I like them about equally, so I am torn between the two. The cost is not an insignificant amount of money for me and considering I like both about same, an important deciding factor is the chance of the watch at least retaining current value adjusted for inflation and preferably appreciating over time. Any thoughts on the relative desirability and values of these two say 20 years down the road? I would assume that the Apollo Anniversary editions are generally more sought after than the Olympic editions? Also, I am concerned that the Tokyo 2020 is just really hyped up right now with the Olympics taking place later in the year and could depreciation at least temporarily after the Olympics are over. Or should I just wait and hope to get a better deal relative to MSRP (maybe even MSRP during pre-sale) on some future panda LE that will also probably have the new movement. If I wait for a future panda, I would probably buy one of the few remaining hesalite 1861s currently still in stock now. The Omega boutique in town still has some. Thanks for the advice.

For investment 20 years from now?..... 1099-R is your best friend....😀

For fun and enjoyment? get the one you like the best,

For crystal ball? best bet is the editorial from HooDinKey...if they will decide the Tokyo is a winner, sky is the limit for it. just check TinTin before and after the Hodinkee pumping..

Thanks for the responses. Not buying the watch as an investment, but ability to retain value or even appreciate is a deciding factor for me personally because I like both watches about the same, so all other things being equal why not pick the one that has a higher chance to appreciate the most? If I preferred one much more than the other it would be an easy choice. I disagree that no one can predict values. Sure, no one can predict with "certainty," but those close to the watch industry and especially knowledgeable about speed masters (not me) have a good fundamental understanding of what historically has worked and what has not. That said, I get that the watches being so similar, it might truly be an unpredictable coin flip, or maybe they rise or fall together, so that it makes no difference which I pick. The option of buying a current 1861 and changing out the dial is very interesting. I saw a thread here about someone who did that and the watch looks amazing! Thanks again!

I would purchase both tomorrow, if you can't get it done tonight then do it tonight. the 3569.31.00 is already 4 times it's retail price. But you have to be certain you are getting clean example with complete box and papers, preferably an unworn example. Since white dial Speedmasters are unique , and if this is a category you wish to collect then you buy the current Tokyo 2020 white dial panda as well as the 3569.31.00. I believe sold separately, The Tokyo 2020 watch Is limited to 2020 pieces. These are two watches that would go in my unworn watch collection to be traded later.

- MISTAKE! (IMO) . lets take it off the table. bad option IMO, it will never be a watch desired by collector. see the asking for converted Snoopy's or for the Australian made vintage SM300.

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If you approach it from that angle, here's my take:

There are models that were kind of "sleepers" (un wanted) like the 3569.31.00, (lets call it Apollo11 from now), and the recent rise of the "limited" models is due to the hype by "market makers" and people trying to hit the next jackpot, that is supported by the overall not to many watches in the market.

If that situation remains, the Apollo11 has the advantage as it is older and fewer available.

In the history of the long run (I'm into watches and Omega's for too long 😀 ), those with unique visible features (colors/print) win as long as they are nice!. Take the Apollo 17 LE for example (the Medal dial), no one really wants it and the high asking price is due to hot market and as said, people trying to make money...
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Having said the above, in the long run, the Olympic has a chance to appreciate more in %wise comparing to the Apollo11 as it is now cheaper (if found NOS compared to NEW) and it is bold compared to the 3569.31.00 due to the colors that makes it a great looking Insragram item with its colors.

Last , bare in mind that Omega (like Panerai and many other) makes a limited, and then makes another similar limited (with a dot, an unseen twist etc), so wouldn't bet we won't see similar models in the future...😀.

All that being said? I personally would get the Apollo11 . If people will change their taste, interest etc, the true collectors will always opt for the Apollo11 as it is 1. beautiful, 2. older and harder to find 3. a real Apollo limited , "before" the hype era..
Just my 2c.
Good luck
Tzachi

Or get the original, the Mitsukoshi. Only 300 made...

No one has the crystal ball to predict these things and people look at everything these days with future values in mind. Personally I wouldn't pay a dime more for anything from older Olympic games and I wouldn't for Tokyo 2020 either. You should buy watches you like to wear and enjoy or don't buy any at all!

Thanks for the input. To explain a little more, I think the mod option is interesting because it would achieve the look I want for significantly less money, even after purchasing and installing the panda dial. And worst case, if modified speedmasters don't sell well, I can always sell it as a regular 1861 speedy with the original black dial reinstalled and also sell the panda dial separately. Also, I would like to wear the watch as part of a rotation and would feel much better about potentially scuffing up a regular 1861 than a more expensive limited edition. Now, the practical problem will be getting my hands on an authentic panda dial, which I understand can be difficult, especially given my nonexistent network in the watch industry. Thanks again for all the advice.