Couple things I would like to (very humbly!) add to your (excellent) post sir - one, the Sotheby's watch has a 220 bezel. Not sure what premium over a regular DN90 these are fetching these days, but a 30.5M movement is close enough to the correct range for this, so I think it might add value.
Two, the $2650 watch that sold, for reference, was a 145.022-76 Moonwatch, which was right in line with what those seem to be bringing nowadays. If this Sotherby's watch has a pre-moon caseback, it'll bring a premium over that one for sure.
(Further, and possibly stupid question: Why the hell won't auction houses post more photos than just one low-res head-on dial photo? In this internet age, I can't imagine I'd want to purchase from an auction house unless I was local to the sale, and could view the preview in person)
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