Significance of the Dial

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My Invicta is a unique and beautiful snowflake.
No other watch on Earth is exactly the same as it is.
Therefore: it is of incomparable value

You said snowflake?

They say no two are alike indeed. But need a microscope to see.
 
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Comparing across brands have many variables. Difficult to analyze.

What is interesting about the speedmasters subject of this post is that the variants are essentially the same save for the dials. So only one variable. Yet different valuations. So it really is the dial and its provenance that drive the value.
 
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Simply rarity

You don’t even need appeal. What were the most unpopular watches in the 60s 70s and even 80s are now the most valuable

6239-6269 Daytona’s
Gold Daytona’s
Pulsation dial Daytona’s
Oyster cosmogtaph Daytona’s
Root beer GMT’s
Tv Pateks

All of these never sold well at all. Not compared to dress watches and datejusts.

I don’t think today’s watches are any different.
I think the limited edition ones are valuable immediately and will always be.

But the models nobody buys are where the future
values are.

This is a CLASSIC example of confirmation bias. We could come up with a list 10x longer of unpopular watches that are not valuable. And I can practically guarantee that these were not the "most" unpopular watches of the time.

And the issue of appeal isn't related to appeal at that time, but the appeal currently. Tastes change.

If anything, RB GMTs are a counter-example to your point. They still do not have wide-spread appeal, and their prices lag the full SS GMTs significantly. (And I say this sadly as an owner of one.) If you are predicting that they will rise in value ... then I hope you're right. 👍
Edited:
 
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^ my comment on the above will be off topic but i personally prefer the RB GMT to the SS versions.

Well if youre right, then we are in the minority it seems.
 
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^ to bring it back to topic, in the case of the GMTs, the metal used is the variable and it does have direct impact on the value. In addition to the colors of the bezel.

Whereas the thesis i was putting forward concerns the value driven by just the difference in the dial.
 
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^ to bring it back to topic, in the case of the GMTs, the metal used is the variable and it does have direct impact on the value. In addition to the colors of the bezel.

Whereas the thesis i was putting forward concerns the value driven by just the difference in the dial.

I agree completely. The two-tone versions of every reference are not as desirable in the current market. It's not mainly the dial. My comment was more in response to the post I was quoting, which was more generally about rarity and value. So maybe my post was a bit off-topic, but in this case I think the issues are related. After all, gold is actually more valuable than SS, so the reason the two-tone GMTs cost less than SS is due to collectibility, not metal value, which is similar to the reasons that dials affect value. If you see what I mean.
 
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I do often wonder if many of the Speedmaster LEs of the last decade would have the value they currently do (despite their rarer dials) had the snoopy not been so in demand and command such a high value on the secondary market. I think this was one of a number of events and other factors around the mid 10’s which led to this idea of watches being investments and there being the potential for large returns for picking rare examples, and thus helping some watches to increase or hold value (many overvalued in my opinion) in a way they would have unlikely done before.

I always think back to the Alaska project LE, they could be had for £3,000 back in 2012, there was one sold on this forum for $4,000. Looking at the changes in prices on the sales here and on chrono 24 (as a broad metric of sold prices), the values shot up not long after the snoopy started commanding such high prices. I can’t think of many reasons why this would be the case (although I’m sure that isn’t the only one)

But then again, I remember turning down a snoopy offered to me when they were £10k saying “no one can be buying it at that price, it’ll be worth half as much in a year”, so what do I know!