http://www.salonqp.com/features-2/chronograph-collecting-examining-the-biggest-market-boom-in-years/

Quite spot-on from the panel of experts in my view - was at a GTG yesterday where there was nary a non-chrono in sight, with sports chronos from the 60s forming the majority.



I fear though with the broader attention brought to previously low-key brands like Enicar, Angelus and Zenith, prices will skyrocket like how Heuers did over the past 3 years. 50s and 60s dress chronos are definitely still great value but being less versatile, they attract less fierce competition.

What are your views?

 

Great article - thanks M. Personally I think it's a bubble. But hey! What do I know - I'm not much of a chrono kind of guy either.

When "the ugly watches from the lesser known brands seem to rising" (to quote Jeff Stein), I think bubble. When 'rotation' into lesser known brands occurs and they go up, I think bubble. Fortunately, no one is saying "this time it's different" yet.

But like I said, hey what do I know... I'm pretty sure there are many others who feel differently. I'm just glad I'm not chasing any vintage chronos right now!

 

There's two sides to that coin. The prices are high for sure, and (mostly for that reason) one needs to be extra wary of franken/fakes. On the other hand, the awareness (...or perception) that 60s chronos can now yield big bucks brings all kinds of interesting stuff out of the woodwork - stuff that might otherwise have been left in drawers around the world.

 

I find the trend hugely annoying. Whenever someone posts a picture of a chronograph, the first comment from one of the mindless chrono-drones will invaribly be "Nice! What size is it??" - AS IF IT F*****G MATTERED!!! What difference does a bloody milimetre or two do?!?

After dismissing a 34mm chronograph with an interesting movement or history as "Nice, but too small for me", some of the lot will post a wristshot (uploaded with some garish filter) of a pedestrian, no-name "sports" chrono that has laid unsold for years and now sold at an outrageous price to the idiot, and the collective group of halfwits will fap themselves senseless at the mere sight of its manly, beefy lugs and superior, stainless case...

Honestly, these people treat "oversize" as it was a sub-category on pornhub. It has only to do with fashion and testosterone levels and there is a seamless overlap with the sad group of middle age never-has-beens that worship Steve McQueen at the alter of mediocre actors.

Rant over.

 

never buy into a bubble.

 

Bubbles


The challenge isn’t identification, its timing:

• If bubbles are easy to find, the challenge isn’t identifying them: it’s predicting when other factors will force those bubbles to burst. Bubbles can last for years, decades, or in the case of dinosaurs, millennia. So what if you see a bubble: that doesn’t necessarily mean anything.
• Awareness of a growing bubble means little, unless you know when the bubble will end.
• Macro-economics do not define micro-economics: A bubble can burst in an industry, but the strongest players may still do well. A bubble can rise in another, and the weakest players may still struggle.

This is why articles making an argument for the existence of a bubble are empty to me. What do you think?




http://scottberkun.com/2012/everything-is-a-bubble

 

I read it too and it sounds like I´d better offload all my SM 300´s, golden Constellations, 1950´s chronographs and sub 40mm watches then and jump on the 1960´s steel chronograph bandwagon.

Sales Corner here I come.......







......not

I have always bought what I like and who says in a year or two when all the Enicar, Dreffa and Sicura chrono´s have been bought up it won´t be 1970´s chrono´s or anything else that is all the rage?

I understand that social media plays a big part in this, turning the price rises into something of a self fulfilling prophecy due to online imagery, hype and supply issues. That coupled with lots of cheap money sloshing around and all those real big hitters who can´t find any more PN Daytonas and the such like moving into, and hoovering up, all the `lesser`names, and perhaps inadvertently starting this trend.

As stated in the article the upwards price momentum has become something of a tsunami and I too find myself heavily priced out of many, many watches which were once increasing by perhaps 10% a year and have now tripled or quadrupled in 18 months or so. That is a real shame but it also means when I do sometimes strike it lucky and pick up something really nice for a sharp price then it does taste even sweeter than before.

 

Look at the positive side of this - as long as these keep getting dismissed for being too small, they will remain relatively affordable...

 

Well, as someone with larger wrists, I respectfully disagree. Maybe in this context it doesn't matter, but generally I have a hard time feeling comfortable wearing watches smaller than around 38mm as they make me feel a little ogre-ish. So while I absolutely love the aesthetics of old 321 Seamaster chronographs, or pie-pan Constellations, or the myriad 36mm divers from the 1960s - unless I can try a watch on in person, I still need to make sure it's a good size before buying anything.

 

@ConElPueblo A+ good rant, would read again.

 

@ConElPueblo , come on! tell us how you feel!

 

But noone is talking about buying or selling watches - why has appreciation of watches have to end with the size argument? These people are unable to see the beauty/feel the appeal unless the watch in question has a certain size. Obviously, that's not the case with you and luckily it's rarely seen on OF

Instagram or Facebook groups on the other hand...

 

Ah true true. Missed that bit about appreciation rather than buying. I suppose it also goes without saying that I do not partake in Instagram or Facebook watch groups!

 

I fear though with the broader attention brought to previously low-key brands like Enicar, Angelus and Zenith, prices will skyrocket like how Heuers did over the past 3 years. 50s and 60s dress chronos are definitely still great value but being less versatile, they attract less fierce competition.

Prices WILL skyrocket? I think they already have.

 

I find these to be some of the most ridiculously priced chronographs out there. I mean one (1) jewel? Seriously?
http://www.ebay.com/itm/VINT-HEUER-...s-SUPER-JUMBO-NO-RESERVE-PRICE-/351715755999?Purchases made through these links may earn this site a commission from the eBay Partner Network

 

True. Even if you could reliably spot a bubble (which I know I can't) , it's hard to profit from it. I'm glad that as a community here on OF, we mostly buy what we like, rather than treat watches as investments.

You're right that the market want bigger chronos and not the 34-35mm types. And yes, 'oversized' or 'jumbo' are very loosely used on ebay.

Then again for folks like me with slim wrists, size does matter,especially when the chronograph is too big. I personally prefer 38-39mm myself. Maybe 1mm doesn't make a difference, but 2-3mm sure does (at least to me!). I'd find 42 mm too big - which is why I sold my Speedy.

 

I don't know how to tell a bubble, especially in some exotic like vintage watches. As I see it, there are less good examples every year, so prices should rise.

I'd love it if this was a bubble. I'm new to watch enthusiasm, it would be fantastic if at some point these great watches I want all went down in price.

I'm afraid it isn't a bubble because of scarcity. But what do I know?

 

I think that while it is true that timing is very important, most who fail to recognize bubbles end up suffering financially as a result.

Now, clearly if you buy what you like and hold for long periods of time, bubbles become relatively unimportant. Similarly, those who bought an expensive home as an investment prior to the bursting of the last RE bubble were likely to have been hurt much more badly than those who planned to live in them for many years.

So, within the context of vintage watch collecting, the current bubble (and there certainly is one) shouldn't be of great concern to those who plan to hold their watches for many years, and are unlikely to need to liquidate in order to raise cash. But those who expect values to continue to rise in the way that they have over the past few years are likely to be disappointed, and especially in the case of watches that aren't intrinsically of very high quality, and/or in excellent condition. In fact, a bifurcation has already occurred, and, as I have mentioned previously, the market is in the midst of a "biflationary" period. Certain models continue to increase in value, while many others have been deflating in value for some time now.

There is also another complication that is almost never mentioned, which is the currency in which the watch (or painting, or oz of gold) is valued. Those who bought a desirable vintage watch two years ago, for example, using Brazilian Real or Russian Rubles, have done significantly better than those who paid with U.S. Dollars.

I was acutely aware of the tech bubble, and then the subsequent RE bubble in the U.S. In both cases, I sold well ahead of the bursting of those bubbles. Some might say that I left a good deal of money on the table, but I have no regrets, as timing the market can be treacherous, and I was well satisfied with my profits in both cases.

I will continue to both buy and sell in the current watch market, and attempt to take advantage of both of the above-mentioned aspects of it. But I'm inclined to follow the wisdom of the legendary investor Bernard Baruch, who, when asked to what he owed his fabulous success in the stock market, reportedly replied: "Selling too early."

 

So I guess my 3595 at 33mm won't cut it as wearable with the new collector's then.