Community Stories

Recommended Good Value / Vintage - New Deals On EBAY & other Auctions

COYI
Posts
499
Likes
738
cineaste cineaste
He is asking double of what it is worth...
I bought a similar watch recently for around a third of what he's asking 😉
 
JwRosenthal
Posts
16,306
Likes
44,897
adrian scott adrian scott
Some wealthy fellas on this group
I think it was in one of the skindiver threads a while ago (maybe a year or two ago) I shared my thoughts on the market for skindivers based on a tier system (chrome plated cheapies- quality name brands), and the price brackets I gave were real-time values based on the market at that time. Since then, we have seen an explosion in the market that has trickled all the way down to these fun and “cheap” watches that forces us to look at the value proposition for these pieces.

I still don’t believe chrome plated divers are worth more than $150, but the market has said otherwise. Watches like my Alpha above were $250 all day long 2 years ago (all stainless case, Felsa or FHF movement, attractive dial, recognizable name brand of the time) but I have seen that form factor go upward of $400+ in the last few months. I thought they were flukes, but having just watched a plane Jane Zodiac Seawolf sell for $900 (watch and bracelet were broken up into two auctions by the seller so I am putting the value on both pieces together) and early Bulova 666’s selling regularly above $600 (no bracelet) in fair (not great) shape, I realize that my entire system of value for these skindivers is out the window.

Compared to many of the “homage” or heritage style micro brands out there now, these vintage skindivers are still a good value comparatively. I would rather have my Alpha over a reissued Alsta at thrice the price, or score a vintage green/black Bakelite Zodiac GMT over a Baltic for the same money. But the days of picking up a clean all stainless skindiver in running condition on the cheap may be finally over.

If you really want to see how much the market has shifted in just the last 2 years, go back and read this thread from the beginning (this thread is really a time capsule of the market). There are several I would happily buy now that I balked at then.

Perhaps it’s time we shift our expectations of what the $€£¥ amount of a “bargain” is.
 
COYI
Posts
499
Likes
738
Thank god I've got a watch box full of skin divers. I wouldn't like to have to start a collection from scratch now
 
JwRosenthal
Posts
16,306
Likes
44,897
COYI COYI
Thank god I've got a watch box full of skin divers. I wouldn't like to have to start a collection from scratch now
It’s tough. I still can find a few diamonds in the rough under $250, but they are project watches and I actively hunt for them (and you have to jump fast). The Jubilee (Wittenaur) skindiver @Syzygy picked up was the last one I recall.
About 2 years ago, the Seamaster 120 (dare I say the king of the skindivers) was on the rise and @Shabbaz was saying that a clean all original 120 was a $2k watch. Many bristled at that (myself included), as there were still bargains to be had at the time. But he saw the trend and knew where it was headed. Now most people would break their fingers getting there wallet out to grab a clean all original 120 for $2k.
 
timoss
Posts
970
Likes
1,508
There is inflation to consider, and maybe higher tolerances in the expectations department on the part of buyers today. Regardless of what you “could have gotten it for” X years ago, for many people dropping a couple hundred bucks for a nice skin diver is not a big deal. I believe it was you, JW, who used “the price of a nice dinner out” or some such to justify a pickup. Well, the price of a nice dinner out could easily be $250 nowadays. Whatever the analogy, everyone has their comfort levels, and probably as a rule people with less history collecting are more comfortable dropping bigger dollars on watches that to them may still feel like a pretty good value.
 
Anthony Lane
Posts
391
Likes
968
cineaste cineaste
He is asking double of what it is worth...

What makes you say that? Not sure I totally agree. Not based on where the market has been in the last 3-4 years. Additionally, there has been a fair amount of press on vintage dive watches. That certainly isn’t helping.

For what it’s worth, I was implying that one probably could have made an offer on it…as that was an option.
Edited:
 
Anthony Lane
Posts
391
Likes
968
JwRosenthal JwRosenthal
It’s tough. I still can find a few diamonds in the rough under $250, but they are project watches and I actively hunt for them (and you have to jump fast). The Jubilee (Wittenaur) skindiver @Syzygy picked up was the last one I recall.
About 2 years ago, the Seamaster 120 (dare I say the king of the skindivers) was on the rise and @Shabbaz was saying that a clean all original 120 was a $2k watch. Many bristled at that (myself included), as there were still bargains to be had at the time. But he saw the trend and knew where it was headed. Now most people would break their fingers getting there wallet out to grab a clean all original 120 for $2k.

Well said. All things vintage (especially clothing, cars and watches) are on a seemingly linear trajectory. It’s not just watches.
 
Anthony Lane
Posts
391
Likes
968
COYI COYI
Thank god I've got a watch box full of skin divers. I wouldn't like to have to start a collection from scratch now

Ugh. After offloading my small collection I’ve got the itch again, and it’s tough.
 
JwRosenthal
Posts
16,306
Likes
44,897
Anthony Lane Anthony Lane
What makes you say that? Not sure I totally agree. Not based on where the market has been in the last 3-4 years. Additionally, there has been a fair amount of press on vintage dive watches. That certainly isn’t helping.

For what it’s worth, I was implying that one probably could have made an offer on it…as that was an option.
I think the issue is that is has changed so rapidly. 2 years ago, I wouldn’t have fathomed paying more than $3k for a nice 1600 series Datejust…wow has that changed quickly! Adjusting for inflation is thinking in terms of 3-5% per year, but we are talking 50-100% per year!
 
JamesTYO
Posts
81
Likes
139
JwRosenthal JwRosenthal
I think the issue is that is has changed so rapidly. 2 years ago, I wouldn’t have fathomed paying more than $3k for a nice 1600 series Datejust…wow has that changed quickly! Adjusting for inflation is thinking in terms of 3-5% per year, but we are talking 50-100% per year!

It is an interesting thing to watch overall, I think Rolex is a specific market unto itself that I have no idea about myself so I can't comment.

Speaking of the overall market, how much of these higher prices are froth, people entering the market flush with cash and a collectors bug, and meeting increasingly "aspirational" BIN pricing by sellers? At what point (if at all) will the greater fool theory kick in?
How much of it is genuine scarcity? I am not sure, but anything with a black dial seems to sell for quite a lot of money - is this just fashion and might it change?
How much is these buyers having nothing else concrete to be able to put money into, the lack of value in saving cash against a spiraling inflation rate when keeping it in the bank will see it decline in value year on year?
I personally doubt there is much thought of investment going on but I am usually comforted when I have paid a bit too much for something that somewhere down the road it will probably be worth something similar to what I paid.

I am not sure how sustainable it all is. I expect there will be a limit to it as the number of new participants even out and more and more watches go out of peoples reach, or heritage reissues of the interesting models dilute interest in the vintage stuff.

I have watched vintage vinyl records that were once discarded en masse once again become valuable commodities that can command ridiculous prices and not just genuine rarities which always commanded big money, but less interesting and poorer condition stuff. As in watch buying, caveat emptor, and all that.
Personally I only do CD's as they are convenient, and are currently unloved and discarded in the same way that vinyl was so I can pick up what I want for peanuts and if you know what to look for you can get the best sounding version of many titles.
 
Anthony Lane
Posts
391
Likes
968
JwRosenthal JwRosenthal
I think the issue is that is has changed so rapidly. 2 years ago, I wouldn’t have fathomed paying more than $3k for a nice 1600 series Datejust…wow has that changed quickly! Adjusting for inflation is thinking in terms of 3-5% per year, but we are talking 50-100% per year!

I know this. It's crazy. I picked up my 1990 Tudor Sub some 7 years ago for around $3000, and I thought that was the peak. Now these are listing for 2-3x what I paid. Which is what a matte dial 5513 could have been purchased for when I bought my Tudor. Most of that rise has happened, as you say, in the last two years.

I don't have much to add, but I do think that dealers are part to blame for this inflation. There's a greediness to seeing how far the consumer will go. I mean, Hodinkee has sold some plated-case department store skin divers for 4 figures. Crazy. Which echos to the private sellers. I do think there are private sellers that are willing to sell pieces for digestible prices, but they seem to be harder to find unless you're "in" with the community. For those who have to rely on eBay or dealer's there is a premium to pay.

Ten years ago the supply of vintage skin divers was higher in comparison to the demand, that is not the case today. I do think there's a rarity to these pieces, and that rarity is increasing as time goes on.

Funny story, I acquired a half dozen World Cup soccer balls which I almost let my children play with, but did some research and discovered that these are highly sought after and have sold all but on on eBay for numbers that I could not believe. Don't worry, I bought them new balls from Target!

It seems like everyone has money these days to spend on what they deem collectible.
 
Syzygy
Posts
1,200
Likes
3,883
Nepomuceño Nepomuceño
Good price for an oceanographer if you're into this case design. https://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-Bu...p2349624.m46890.l6249&mkrid=711-127632-2357-0
This seller has a hand full of other Bulova pieces that seem to be in nice condition and pricing seems reasonable as well. The only thing that has me doubting some of them is the case finish. Not sure if they've been polished, or it's just the lighting in the photos. Unfortunately I just don't know these well enough to feel comfortable pulling the trigger. This c.1974 piece caught my eye because of the year and interesting dial.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/224825476387?hash=item3458a48523:g:3swAAOSwqudh~8xj
A Capture.JPG
 
This website may earn commission from Ebay sales.
JwRosenthal
Posts
16,306
Likes
44,897
Syzygy Syzygy
This seller has a hand full of other Bulova pieces that seem to be in nice condition and pricing seems reasonable as well. The only thing that has me doubting some of them is the case finish. Not sure if they've been polished, or it's just the lighting in the photos. Unfortunately I just don't know these well enough to feel comfortable pulling the trigger. This c.1974 piece caught my eye because of the year and interesting dial.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/224825476387?hash=item3458a48523:g:3swAAOSwqudh~8xj
A Capture.JPG
That’s the ABC guy, he seems to have a never ending supply of vintage Bulova and boxes to match. Many of them show some wear and some have been polished but his prices seem fair for what he is offering. I know some members have bought his pieces- maybe they can chime in on what their experience was.
 
This website may earn commission from Ebay sales.
1511 More Posts...
Sign up or log in to reply...

Similar threads

parkjam1

First Post - views on ebay/other listings/recommendations

parkjam1 Vintage Omega Watches Help, Discussion and Advice
Sa Calobra
Sa Calobra
Posts
27
Views
5K