Poor quality, high prices, few or no pre-certification on fleabay

[PatinaPete]

I'm seeing more and more low quality pieces go for higher and higher prices on eBay than ever before. I don't know if they've done something to their price algorithm, or if something else is going on. I'm also seeing a lot of last minute nutso bidding on stuff that is absolute trash. When I say trash, I mean, non-working, not even good for parts rusty water damaged JUNK. All brands. What is going on with eBay? I have stopped buying watches there for now, and prior to June I was picking up at least 1 timepiece eery other month. Now I'm strictly working with outlets where authenticity guarantees are paid for by the SELLER before the sale. Why the heck would I want to deal with that noise after, and have it be my responsibility?

That is all.

 

[sheepdoll]

I tend to go for rusty rat watches.

Could be all the you tube fixit videos. Those really seem to have taken off in the last year or two. I thought about making some myself, but there are so many.

It really is a chance as to what will sell, and for how much. In the last few months I got 6 or so 55x/56x movements. Mostly as bulk assortments.

Of the 6 only one was a complete watch. (which is sort of boring) 200 or so seems to be about what completed junkers are going for.

I underbid some parts today. Sat all week at 5 I only went to 36 and someone got them for 37. I did not bother bidding on more rust rats. These went for the usual 60 to just under 200 range.

The problem is that many of these are incomplete. I seem to go through phases of what is missing. Now it is setting wheels. I should have at least two, but can only find one. I needed some setting works, and one of those came with a bonus balance, which is always nice. Auction photos can be blurry and often they include non omega junk.

Balance jewels seems to often be missing and incabloc spring broken. Years ago I got an assortment of this material. Which I add to from time to time. Sometimes one can go through the junk watches and find something close.

Screws are also problematic. I seem to have become a collecting house for all those missing case clamp screws.

Eventually I will need to source winding rotors.

Cases are where the real insanity is. I missed out on the whole watchco thing. It frustrates me to see what 'generic' cases sell for. Often more than poor to fair 'genuine' examples.


Thanks to these forums I discovered Evap-O-Rust and alum. I suspect others have as well.

This of course does not say why there is so much activity on certain brands.

I have pretty much given up on shopGoodwill. One gets the feeling there are shill bidders bidding early to drive prices up.

In theory the supply of post wwii to 1980s vintage should be dwindling. Although the number here is quite high (probably billions) With many watch styles produced in the millions or at least 6 digit runs. Stuff with productions in the 5 digits probably retains value a bit better. It really becomes about perception. None of this is being made new. That probably feeds some of the feeding frenzy mystique. Heard behavior and FOMO.

A lot of the junk I get seems to come from Florida and Texas. I figure some of this stuff is storm and flood salvage. Even the Sealed NOS parts can be rusty.

 

[redpcar]

Low end junker lots are bringing too much right now. I'm guessing for the potential of gold content ☕

 

[STANDY]

With the cost of living biting many, the lower end is doing better.

Look how many new to vintage are popping up here lately, priced out of New and have the disease so it’s vintage.

Same happened in the GFC, all of a sudden the lower end was propping up whilst the top end was trending down as sellers flooded the market with FS watches.

 

[kaplan]

Also shill bidding, some stuff shows up again and again, not fun being the 2nd highest bid each time

 

[drose224]

P.T. Barnum said it best.

 

[BrokenSkunk]

The whole market is over priced at the moment and has been for a couple of years. I think buyers are still under the impression that vintage watches are an investment. I think that this has brought many sellers to ebay and most of them are punting tarted up garbage for top dollar. Or at least attempting to.

Hopefully normality will return when the buyers start realisng that their cobbled together watches need an expensive list of parts to keep them running, or are just unservicable. But sadly it's not going to happen overnight.

 

[PatinaPete]

kaplan

Also shill bidding, some stuff shows up again and again, not fun being the 2nd highest bid each time

I feel like this is a lot of it also. Maybe scripts or something that are nudging bids using AI to determine what the most profitable moves would be. I see emails every week of re-listed items.

What really caused me to double-take several times this week were a number of 5200.50 watches up for bid, that regularly exceeded the price of buy-now watches. These were buy-now, 100% seller rating, at $1000 and then no-reserve same model, same condition watches would within a day or two (of a 5 or 7 day auction) reach, then exceed $1000 and sell for maybe $1150-1200. That kind of price action makes no sense.

Of course, there could be minuscule differences that make one vs the other more desirable that my eye might not pick out. That could be true here or there, but I'm seeing that type of price action occur pretty regularly. Makes me wonder about some type of money laundering.

 

[Dan S]

From what I see, prices are still down from 2-3 years ago, but starting to turn around, with occasional strong auction lots.

 

[PatinaPete]

The more I think about it, the "market" is acting like strong inflation is coming back, the "people will buy anything" times.
The latest vintage in the ebay thread is described as "near mint" by the seller, auction price is $511. Looks like a watch kept inside my front tire WHILE I was driving.

 

[DrSpock]

B BrokenSkunk

The whole market is over priced at the moment and has been for a couple of years. I think buyers are still under the impression that vintage watches are an investment. I think that this has brought many sellers to ebay and most of them are punting tarted up garbage for top dollar. Or at least attempting to.

Hopefully normality will return when the buyers start realisng that their cobbled together watches need an expensive list of parts to keep them running, or are just unservicable. But sadly it's not going to happen overnight.

Sorry, but I would disagree here, imho the market is currently and for some time now pretty down ( you can get great watches for reasonable money at the moment)

 

[PatinaPete]

To DrSpock's point, the larger trend has been downward. Recently there has been a spike upward, but nothing goes straight up or straight down, it's always zig zag. Probably not a V-bottom more just a short spike up.

 

[apsm100]

eBay is funny. I bought my near mint c-shape connnie with bracelet for $750usd. Only 11 watchers though so a bit strange.
On the flip side, I have spent $1000usd on the most basic meh Seamasters.
Guess it evens out. 😜

 

[theluckyluke]

There is a ton of crap for sure… but many do get relisted all the time despite someone (sometimes several people) supposedly fighting for it. Feels like sellers get it up for appraisal, then relist with auction starting at 20% more than the outcome of the auction.

People also have really high BIN prices, because it only takes an idiot to make a profit. But three seconds after following the item, you get a double digit discount - on every single one - so of course prices look inflated.

 

[redpcar]

I hate it when one seller finds a way to get his crap into my searches day after day after day after day........ They never sell for years. How is this worth it?

 

[DON]

I bought loads of watches early on when little forums and eBay buyers. Watchco 300 case for $350 etc. loads of parts and crowns. As prices went up with more forums and buyers. I stopped. Watches I bought for $75 selling for $350 and higher. SM300 I bought cheap selling for $1100 8 years later. Today. 10x+

I bought many junkers that others voided

also. My watchmaker passed away and others asking 6x his price to repair.

only bought one item a few years ago. Money pit, so placed away