Does anyone have color on falling Panerai prices? It seems like a large number of grey market watches have appeared in the U.S.... Is this a time to buy, or a sign of cronic oversupply and brand dilution?
I feel like panerai prices second hand have been falling for a while, not the same demand as the once had 10 years ago. Only certain limited editions have held value that are in demand by panerai collectors.
I think that in general you are seeing second hand prices fall as they have to deal with so much new grey market inventory. For example I saw a nice seamaster pro (bought less than a year ago) for sale on the forum yesterday for $2395. The exact same watch (down to the dial color) can be had on the GM for $2600...and that is before any online coupon codes...so for another $150-200 you can have the same watch brand new out of the box. Now you forgo the warranty going GM but what is the % of watches that truly have a warranty issue within the first 24 months. Typically it is low single digits since most companies employ statisticians to calculate a warranty period that keeps them within what the company considers to be an acceptable warranty replacement cost. That is a trade off most educated consumers are willing to make. That will naturally effect the pre-owned secondary market prices as those price differences continue to compress. But my opinion is the root of the issue is two fold: 1) a massive oversupply vs market demand that drives unsold inventory into the GM and 2) untenable price increases vs what most people will pay for watches at an Corporate owned location or AD...again driving demand to the GM vs the stores. Anyway that's my two cents.
Thanks everyone for the feedback. The below Deloitte report on the Swiss watch industry echoes a lot of what you all mentioned. I also read that Panerai has been having service issues. JKing - seems like your points about the GM (p.11) and falling demand, particularly in Hong Kong (p.4), were spot on. https://www2.deloitte.com/ch/en/pag...cts/articles/swiss-watch-industry-study.html#
Wasn't there any article months ago about how brands had to buy back inventory in HKG? Also was a watch fair where high levels of discounts needed to be given (even on PP) in order to move stock.