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Duckie
路A little bit of envelope math as it gets fuzzy, because Swatch 'charges' eachother for watch dials/etc:
Swatch annual report: https://www.swatchgroup.com/sites/d.../en_swatchgroup_2024_financial_statements.pdf
Shows 2024 had ~ 6.4 BILLION CHF in 'net' WATCH sales. Morgan Stanley estimates (according to this: https://gulfnews.com/business/retai...es-as-other-swatch-brands-struggle-1.96834101) that 1/3 of Swatch profit is from Omega, though everything I see in the annual report shows that each of the swatch watch groups make roughly the same profit margins, so I'm going to consider that they probably get ~1/3 of net sales as well, so ~2.1 Billion CHF in Omega sales.
I know the stores have ~30%+ margin based on discussions with ADs, so I consider an average 'net sale' price of ~$5000 (since that 'net' doesn't include dial cost, which Rubattel makes many of their dials, Universo makes a lot of the hands/etc). I'll bet that this $5000 net-per-watch is high, so this biases my final number low, but again, envelope math.
That makes ~420,000 watches per year by Omega. I've been told by my OB that their store (and most of the OBs in the US) get about 40+% of their sales per-watch from Moonwatches, with ATs, other Speedmasters, and 300m making up the majority of the difference.
That gives ~168k/year. Rounded down for envelope-error-margins, got me to ~150k a year.
THAT SAID: If Omega made 100,000 3861s total in ~7 years (about 1/10th of my estimate), SEVEN of these isn't a blip.
7 definately isn't a definitive number in the real world. There will certainly be others which are not noticed, or perhaps fall into the don't care in the slightest, or something else further across the spectrum; like the owners aren't even on the forum or any other but are engaged with own journey and their watch.
To me.
In the grand scheme of things. At this stage, i'd personally rather be dealing with the random "ting" than the watch stopping at some point after the Chrono function is started.
But it seems Omega can actually offer a conclusive fix for either of the issues.
Which is a quite unlike the Rolex 32xx conundrum i would say.
To Omega's credit.
They worked on the Co-Axial until it was to their satisfaction.
The 3861 is not a basket case but they are seemingly onto it.


