Lol ok no need to flex on us peasants with your snoopy 45 and ability to afford a $7k deposit.

I'm saying that the pre-launch divulging to OB's (who then relay to customers) of certain traits of the watch should not be considered to be "corporate secrets." OB's can't be trusted with corporate secrets, which I agree with. However, I don't consider certain aspects of the launch like LE vs LP to meet that definition, especially if they do decide to disclose on launch. This was a strategic "leak" on behalf of HQ, just like the strategic withholding of pictures, which I would consider to be a secret (and thus no mention of it by OBs). When you say corporate secrets i tend to think in the area of prospective financials, strategy, industry/trade secrets, r&d, product dev/pipeline. Sharing any of these with the public is hardly the same as sharing a minute (and given the demand, frankly inconsequential) detail of a product to a customer, that you're planning on releasing in a week anyways.

In any case, I honestly do hope that I'm totally wrong way on this and that it does in fact come out in LE. Just saying that I'd be way more cautious than optimistic on this happening.

 

Btw, is it known at which time the new modell will be presented?

 

As much as everything else, no

 

There are OBs accepting deposits prior to the announcement? I was offered a slot for the 50th Apollo 11 watch from my OB and they requested a deposit immediately AFTER it was announced...not before. My OB is doing the same again for the 50th Snoopy and will contact me tomorrow right after it's formally announced.

Maybe it's ADs and not OBs taking deposits for those that put money down?

 

I can almost guarantee you that corporate have had several meetings that specifically discussed LE vs LP, so I would hardly consider the topic to be nonsense. Also not getting what you don't understand here, it's pretty straight forward s/d. I'll preface by saying that the importance on production levels discussed here more-so concern valuation rather than actual # of pieces outstanding (aka feeling special / bespoke). Now, if you don't understand why follow-on valuation might be important to some people, then you probably have f you money, or just don't care in general. Personally, I don't fall into this camp and for me, every watch has its price.

It's incorrect to look at gross # pieces outstanding in a vacuum, but rather should be compared with implied demand. Sure, there are watches produced in the double digits, and some of them are even priced lower than Omegas. However, this price reflects the implied demand for the watch in the marketplace. In the context of the snoopy, Omega could make 8,000 units and the price could still be multiples over another LE watch with only 200. You need to consider demand in addition to supply.

You've totally lost me on your last point on how profit seekers are "totally missing the boat." Not sure anyone here is making the suggestion that flipping watches is a foundation for long-term financial wealth lol. At least on a personal level (you could make the case that some AD owners have done pretty well for themselves financially by owning a business that "flips" steel watches). Regardless of LE vs LP, this will be an oversubscribed model and if a flipper can get an early allocation, they certainly will not be missing the boat. Like I mentioned earlier, it depends on your personal financial situation, and sentimental value. I have every intention to keep this watch, but if they're selling for $30k, I'm going to be offer side. For different people, that number could be $12k, $25k, $100k,..., priceless. In my personal situation, it's hard for me to justify choosing ANY $30k watch over its equivalent in cash, even with appreciation potential.

Maybe you're not from the US, and I'm certainly no tax attorney, but what edge exactly are flippers exploiting from a tax standpoint? If anything, it seems like they'd get hit with double-tax (assuming reporting). You'd certainly pay state sales when you purchase (no tax-exempt cert, and no OBs in 0% sales tax states). Then income or cap gains again on the difference when you sell if if it appreciates. Even if you are doing this to report a loss (not sure why you would), your shield is only the marginal tax portion and would still be a net loss on the "strategy."

ADs are reportedly not getting an early allocation, and the US distribution model will go through OB network only for now. Omega corporate are determining "who's who," and that's likely in the scope of VIPs. If they wanted to weed out the flippers, announcing LP would certainly do most that of that legwork for them.

 

No, it’s actual OB’s that we’re accepting deposits in the US. I know this because I went to the only OB in my city to put a deposit down and is listed as such on the Omega website. There’s only one other location in my city that serves as an AD which would never be confused with an OB.

 

In the US at least, OBs started to formally take $5k deposits on a national level a few weeks ago (I forget, maybe 3?). Early indications of strong demand, so some are reporting these deposit lists have now been closed here. Could vary based on location.

 

Good to hear your perspective, I can see where you're coming from. Most of my point was just fueled by self-justification for the purchase, likely doesn't apply to those in higher income brackets haha.

I'm genuinely curious about what this tax strategy is though, hypothetically speaking of course. Where's the tax arb in selling rare alcohols, and watches? I understand some people make money this way, but doesn't that gain mostly just come from the asset itself, not really the tax implications? TTB scrutinizes alcohol sales harder than even the IRS does general income.

Either way, I agree that none of these are great core investments for a variety of reasons. But sometimes, it's just so much fun to play (and hopefully win) the lottery in an "asset" that you're passionate about.

 

It wasn’t a flex. I was pointing out direct facts that I had — a 45 snoopy and a $7k deposit. In hindsight, I had no idea how fortunate I was to get the 45th snoopy. I wanted to share my direct experience with what occurred during that time with deposits, getting the watch, price appreciation, and comments about its appearance with this group. As for the deposit, I wanted to be clear that it was a financial choice I could make given the whole “why would anyone (implying foolish) put down a deposit on a watch they’ve never seen?” comments earlier.

As for strategic leaks, we will find out soon enough whether any of us received any from their OBs. I don’t presume to know what Omega defines as corporate secrets. Companies like Apple consider even the smallest detail a corporate secret. It was that people were so adamant that their information was the right leaked information. Given how inconsistent their deposit policy was in the US and elsewhere, it was clear there wasn’t a lot of information was coming from corporate. Therefore, we should all be suspicious of any product leaks as well.

The whole point is that it’s fun to speculate but we shouldn’t take ourselves too seriously.

 

This is like the 4th time on this thread you've reminded us you have the 45th..just sayin

 

I put my $7k deposit down back in June. I was contacted by my OB, I’m guessing, because I was a prior owner and for VIPs. I happen to know a VIP who was offered a deposit at that time as well. I had a friend who, was on a waitlist with no purchase history, was not contacted to put down a deposit in June. This same friend contacted me a few weeks ago, when the deposit frenzy started, to ask if he should put down a deposit. He also had to put down $7k.

 

its relevant to this conversation since people make a lot of assumptions. Go look me up on OF. I’ve only contributed to a few places here since I don’t own a lot of Omegas. And this is a thread about Snoopy.

 

If you're in new york, I would happily take you up on that offer (although I have a feeling we won't be discussing much tax law)! By the time deliveries roll around, there will hopefully be several things to celebrate.

Agreed that lightning won't strike twice here, it just doesn't make sense financially for Omega to leave so much on the table when there's already so much real demand in the form of deposits alone. They'd have to keep the #'s close to last time for that to happen, and I just don't see them capping production to ~2k units. If it is LE at all it will be closer to 7k+ units, and your upside there as a flipper is much more limited.

 

I was told the # is 2020.

 

I think it really depends on the release schedule. We both agree that Rolex is likely producing far more than 7,000 Submariner units... however the release schedule is doled out in a way that keeps demand high, and most MSRP examples are immediately sold to gray dealers who double the price, which keeps the market strong and demand high through lack of access.

Once this Snoopy release is opened, AD's will receive virtually no allocations, OB's will have full lists. Most units will be purchased by people who want to keep them, remaining units will be flipped for 25-100% markup. Disbursements will happen slowly over 2021.

I do agree, though, this release won't see 45th numbers. It should however, appreciate at least a little.

 

If this does end up being a LE, I think the 7k units makes the most sense based off of the A11 50th. Those are still going for close to MSRP on the grey market which implies Omega produced the right amount to supply the demand.

 

source?

 

if you're wrong, I propose a ban!