October 5th 2020 - Snoopy Celebration

phooi

It’s obvious I wasn’t clear. Since you’ve pointed out how OBs aren’t privy to corporate secrets, why would anyone believe what an OB tells you besides that you have to put down a deposit and your place on a waitlist? why would omega corporate tell an OB or someone on this forum something that is tied to an NDA regarding a design of a watch no one has seen? Is someone willing to divulge their source to prove how right they are and potentially get them in trouble?

The fact that people here are saying that it’s a LE and a LP tells you that no one really knows since Omega hasn’t said anything. Is someone likely to be correct??? Hmmm... pretty sure someone is right.

My point is that it’s been fun to speculate and guess what Omega may or may not be doing. I’ve enjoyed the speculation as much as the next person but I don’t pretend to know anything other than I’ve put a $7k deposit (that I can afford) and that I own a 45th snoopy. I take whatever the OB tells me with a grain of salt because, as you say, why would corporate share secrets with an OB.

We will ALL find out what Omega is planning for this snoopy release on 10/5. I’m looking forward to it!

raltobelli

Btw, is it known at which time the new modell will be presented?

pw92676

I think this watch appeals to:
1) Speedmaster enthusiasts
2) Enthusiasts of the underlying historical signifance
3) Snoopy enthusiasts
4) Those with large collections where this will be another feather in ones cap
5) Those who are looking for a profit

I frankly never understood the limited edition vs production nonsense. For anyone who wants something truly limited, go bespoke. It exists in haute horology. But the discussion goes around and around because only so many watches can be supplied to the above 5. I am number 3. I hope enough float around for 1,2,3 and maybe 4. Number 4s can find many other pieces that would fit the bill so if they miss out it’s not the end of the world. Number 5s are just plain missing the boat. Other than for tax implications, flipping steel watches (yes, even the 45 snoopy and even a 5711) is not the foundation for long term financial wealth.

The hard part for ADs is figuring out who’s who.

H hb8745

Not sure what you don't understand here, it's pretty straight forward s/d. I'll preface by saying that the importance on production levels discussed here more-so concern valuation rather than actual # of pieces outstanding (aka feeling special / bespoke). Now, if you don't understand why follow-on valuation might be important to some people, then you probably have f you money, or just don't care in general. Personally, I don't fall into this camp and for me, every watch has its price.

A bit of both. Everything (watches and other items) has its price for me as well.


It's incorrect to look at gross # pieces outstanding in a vacuum, but rather should be compared with implied demand. Sure, there are watches produced in the double digits, and some of them are even priced lower than Omegas. However, this price reflects the implied demand for the watch in the marketplace. In the context of the snoopy, Omega could make 8,000 units and the price could still be multiples over another LE watch with only 200. You need to consider demand in addition to supply.

I’m fairly new to Omega and this forum, my watch circle is also not very omega heavy so I’m learning (in large part due to this thread) how attractive the Snoopy is within the Omega marketplace/world. Still think that outside the Omega world it’s a bit different story/demand.

Not sure anyone here is making the suggestion that flipping watches is a foundation for long-term financial wealth lol.

A lot of folks do. I’m not one of them and I am glad you are not either. I incorrectly assumed that mentality may exist here. Thanks for clarifying.

At least on a personal level (you could make the case that some AD owners have done pretty well for themselves financially by owning a business that "flips" steel watches). Regardless of LE vs LP, this will be an oversubscribed model and if a flipper can get an early allocation, they certainly will not be missing the boat. Like I mentioned earlier, it depends on your personal financial situation, and sentimental value. I have every intention to keep this watch, but if they're selling for $30k, I'm going to be offer side. For different people, that number could be $12k, $25k, $100k,..., priceless. In my personal situation, it's hard for me to justify choosing ANY $30k watch over its equivalent in cash, even with appreciation potential.

I also plan to keep. Everyone’s sell threshold is different. I don’t anticipate mine will ever materialize so I consider that decision moot. But makes sense.

Maybe you're not from the US, and I'm certainly no tax attorney, but what edge exactly are flippers exploiting from a tax standpoint? If anything, it seems like they'd get hit with double-tax (assuming reporting).

Again, my incorrect assumption. I know a great deal of folks (who share the same tax attorney as me) who take an alternative mindset regarding this when it comes to sale of consumer goods (watches, scotches, wines). One watch sale won’t get you rich but add up a tally and the number can get quite large. Again I don’t recommend or advocate this and neither does my tax attorney.

nismo

There are OBs accepting deposits prior to the announcement? I was offered a slot for the 50th Apollo 11 watch from my OB and they requested a deposit immediately AFTER it was announced...not before. My OB is doing the same again for the 50th Snoopy and will contact me tomorrow right after it's formally announced.

Maybe it's ADs and not OBs taking deposits for those that put money down?

nismo

There are OBs accepting deposits prior to the announcement? I was offered a slot for the 50th Apollo 11 watch from my OB and they requested a deposit immediately AFTER it was announced...not before. My OB is doing the same again for the 50th Snoopy and will contact me tomorrow right after it's formally announced.

Maybe it's ADs and not OBs taking deposits for those that put money down?

H hb8745

Good to hear your perspective, I can see where you're coming from. Most of my point was just fueled by self-justification for the purchase, likely doesn't apply to those in higher income brackets haha.

I usually think hard and try to self-justify purchases as well. That’s my nature and I think it’s a good thing. Hope we both end up with this watch, I wanted a Snoopy since the Eyes on the Stars. Excited to know I finally have a legit chance to obtain one.

I'm genuinely curious about what this tax strategy is though, hypothetically speaking of course. Where's the tax arb in selling rare alcohols, and watches? I understand some people make money this way, but doesn't that gain mostly just come from the asset itself, not really the tax implications? TTB scrutinizes alcohol sales harder than even the IRS does general income.

We should take this conversation off line. Would be best while enjoying some of the aforementioned beverages whilst cheersing with our Snoopys on.

Either way, I agree that none of these are great core investments for a variety of reasons. But sometimes, it's just so much fun to play (and hopefully win) the lottery in an "asset" that you're passionate about.

Nothing wrong with that. I something I own doesn’t have a sentimental value and the price is right, I’m down with viewing it as a lottery ticket 😀 I don’t realistically think this applies to this Snoopy though. At least for me. I personally don’t think it will ever get someone a 25k profit and realistically would advise anyone who is hoping to make 4-5k off it to instead just put the deposit money into an index fund as long as their IRA is maxed. Yeah I’m a boring guy at the end of the day lol.

H hb8745

Lol ok no need to flex on us peasants with your snoopy 45 and ability to afford a $7k deposit.

I'm saying that the pre-launch divulging to OB's (who then relay to customers) of certain traits of the watch should not be considered to be "corporate secrets." OB's can't be trusted with corporate secrets, which I agree with. However, I don't consider certain aspects of the launch like LE vs LP to meet that definition, especially if they do decide to disclose on launch. This was a strategic "leak" on behalf of HQ, just like the strategic withholding of pictures, which I would consider to be a secret (and thus no mention of it by OBs). When you say corporate secrets i tend to think in the area of prospective financials, strategy, industry/trade secrets, r&d, product dev/pipeline. Sharing any of these with the public is hardly the same as sharing a minute (and given the demand, frankly inconsequential) detail of a product to a customer, that you're planning on releasing in a week anyways.

In any case, I honestly do hope that I'm totally wrong way on this and that it does in fact come out in LE. Just saying that I'd be way more cautious than optimistic on this happening.

phooi

It wasn’t a flex. I was pointing out direct facts that I had — a 45 snoopy and a $7k deposit. In hindsight, I had no idea how fortunate I was to get the 45th snoopy. I wanted to share my direct experience with what occurred during that time with deposits, getting the watch, price appreciation, and comments about its appearance with this group. As for the deposit, I wanted to be clear that it was a financial choice I could make given the whole “why would anyone (implying foolish) put down a deposit on a watch they’ve never seen?” comments earlier.

As for strategic leaks, we will find out soon enough whether any of us received any from their OBs. I don’t presume to know what Omega defines as corporate secrets. Companies like Apple consider even the smallest detail a corporate secret. It was that people were so adamant that their information was the right leaked information. Given how inconsistent their deposit policy was in the US and elsewhere, it was clear there wasn’t a lot of information was coming from corporate. Therefore, we should all be suspicious of any product leaks as well.

The whole point is that it’s fun to speculate but we shouldn’t take ourselves too seriously.

H hb8745

In the US at least, OBs started to formally take $5k deposits on a national level a few weeks ago (I forget, maybe 3?). Early indications of strong demand, so some are reporting these deposit lists have now been closed here. Could vary based on location.

taz101

This is like the 4th time on this thread you've reminded us you have the 45th..just sayin

H hb8745

If you're in new york, I would happily take you up on that offer (although I have a feeling we won't be discussing much tax law)! By the time deliveries roll around, there will hopefully be several things to celebrate.

Agreed that lightning won't strike twice here, it just doesn't make sense financially for Omega to leave so much on the table when there's already so much real demand in the form of deposits alone. They'd have to keep the #'s close to last time for that to happen, and I just don't see them capping production to ~2k units. If it is LE at all it will be closer to 7k+ units, and your upside there as a flipper is much more limited.

H hb8745

If you're in new york, I would happily take you up on that offer (although I have a feeling we won't be discussing much tax law)! By the time deliveries roll around, there will hopefully be several things to celebrate.

Agreed that lightning won't strike twice here, it just doesn't make sense financially for Omega to leave so much on the table when there's already so much real demand in the form of deposits alone. They'd have to keep the #'s close to last time for that to happen, and I just don't see them capping production to ~2k units. If it is LE at all it will be closer to 7k+ units, and your upside there as a flipper is much more limited.

A asedfasdfawsdf

I was told the # is 2020.