Someone posted on rolexforums this today
"Just got in touch with a friend that was trying to place a deposit today, apparently the lists have been officially closed by Omega for all US.
I'm not sure how to interpret this, but it seems that the rate of production will be indeed limited. For now whoever is in... is in. That might be it for a while."
Anyone in the US still trying to put down a deposit may want to ring up the local OB sooner rather than later if this is true.

 

Great color. Looks like I'm totally overthinking this haha.

 

Nailed it On the other hand buying it BNIB for less than MSRP could be a good move to extend a Speedy collection. Hence it’s ugly I believe most of these watches were sold to ordinary customers (nonOmega freaks) and in 5-10 years not so many of them will be available in full set condition. But true is the watch will be still ugly AF

 

Surprisingly, people on Chrono24 are listing this above MSRP. I don't think too many are going to sell at listed price though.

 

There is still one at an AD in Belgium at listprice €6.2K so the sellers on chrono24 are.

 

In the future, no one knows when, these dogs will suddenly become very collectible. It has happened before. back in the late 1950's one of Patek Philippe's young designers, Gilbert Albert, came up with some very futuristic designs, and they bombed big time in the market. I remember talking to one large Swiss retailer 30 years ago and he said they couldn't give them away, everyone thought they were goofy and ugly. Well, try getting one of Albert's Patek Philippe watches today, extremely expensive and they seldom come on the market. Other examples also exist, something considered unacceptable will suddenly become 'interesting and collectible'. It will happen with this Speedmaster, too, we just don't know when.

 

the best example of all time is the Paul Newman Daytona. No one wanted that watch for so long but look where it is today. You will never know what the future may bring. Just buy what you like/love... you might get lucky!

 

Didn't this apply to Daytona's in general for many a year until all of a sudden they were the watch to have? If I have understood correctly AD's couldn't give the Daytona away at one point.

So, no matter what you wish for today there's no guarantee that it will still apply tomorrow.

 

Pricing on the 2015 snoopy was right for its time. It was a premium above a standard speedy but not out of line with any other speedy LE. Also, the first snoopy wasn’t a big hit. It was selling at list or slightly above. I was looking at the time. There was no way Omega knew when they made the 2015 watch that it would take off.

Once the pictures of the 2015 came out, that’s when the consumers went crazy. Omega knew they had a hit but by then it was too late.

 

I’m not that old to say. I’ve been trying to buy a SS Daytona at retail since the 90s and it has been impossible without a history. But the Paul Newman history is well documented.

 

The issue is, if Omega does not reveal how many will be made than you are taking the risk on not getting one at all if you wait to get one 2nd hand. You only knew you could get a quattroporte for 80K after the fact, not when it was first launched. What if Maserati (Omega) decided to stop production after 2 years. Now the car is not 120K but 175K. My guess is Omega won't say when they'll stop producing it. I say if you're willing to take the chance of not getting one at all pass on a new one and wait and see. I would rather pay a discounted price but not at the risk of not getting one.

 

It tells you the price elasticity of the brand. People find it hard justifying paying over $10k for a speedmaster even if it is worth it. Just look at the noise around the 321. For people who know movements, they feel that the 321 is a very good price. But people are use to paying less for a SS speedy and many times at a discount. That premium is a hard mental chasm to cross.

 

True you always run the risk of not getting one at all if you wait, and it's even tougher to estimate the true demand. However, I think if they don't announce a production level, that would indicate to me that the supply numbers will skew high and it may not be too difficult to obtain in the future. If Omega's strategy is for a low production level, I think it'd be wise to announce that and use it as a justification for a higher price point.

My point with the car example was to illustrate why follow on pricing of depreciable assets might matter to some people, who aren't looking at it in terms of appreciation or upside. In the case of the quattroporte, i don't think the price action would play out as you describe if they produced in decently large numbers and then just cut off production. If it was announced tomorrow that quattroporte production would stop after 2 years, the value would barely move imo. I admit its not totally apples to apples as quattroporte demand and sedans in general have cratered, but the timeline of supply announcement is what matters here. Now if they had announced limited production numbers at model launch, that might be a different story...

 

Well Omega could announce final production #'s on October 5th. So far the only thing they've announced is that there will be an announcement on October 5th.

 

As I am moving house watch buying is on hold, so it would suit me if Omega kept production running for a while, didn't make the watch limited and had a production run that lasted a few years, at least I could look at picking the watch up after we had moved and funds were available, but I think that this is going to be unlikely.

 

There is no issue, since the watch isn't released yet. So everything is all speculation. When the watch is released in 6 days and there is no info on quantity, then there is an issue. Do I see a problem with a refundable deposit sight unseen? No, not at all. Three weeks from release date isn't going to break the bank if most people were going to buy the watch anyways. Imagine if they allowed deposits back when the teasers came out in April? We don't know the outcome and value of every single item. Lets look back to the Speedmaster Tintin. Flew in under the radar. Discontinued after a couple of years. Sold for under MSRP and was even seen at Costco. Now look at it. Everything can be looked at in hindsight. I should have bought that watch, I should have bought those stocks.

This watch will be like the Ed White 321. Omega will make X amount in Y amount of years.

 

Word.

 

I know this is starting to go into semantics, but why is X amount In Y years not considered effectively just LE, and instead LP? Is it because LE definitively ties them down to a hard stop at X units, while LP give them the optionality to restart production sometime in the future if they really wanted to?

 

exactly

 

LE is a set number like the 45th snoopy at 1970. LP is more ambiguous. One way is the 321 which is limited pieces made per year. Another is to keep making them for until demand dries up. What’s confusing are the numbered editions? It’s like LP but with numbers...