The reason they aren't disclosing in europe where you are exactly on the list is because your position likely doesn't matter as much and it would be somewhat revealing to their process. If you are confirmed #3 on their list and somehow find out they handed out 10 watches and you didn't get one, that wouldn't be a great look for them. On the flip side, if you were confirmed #90 on the list, and find out they handed out 10 watches but you got one, that also might not be a great look for the watch.
I would bet that if you made your deposit (US) in a reasonable timeframe, you will get a watch.
For those of us that really want the watch and don't have a lot of pull via other avenues, the deposit can only be a good thing. Not sure why people are upset over it at all. Its on your credit card, you are not giving them a "free loan" unless for some reason you deposit in cash. Even then, you'd lose all of $5 in interest. It's virtually a wash on paper.