October 5th 2020 - Snoopy Celebration

Archer · Oct 6, 2020

A Arctic228
Anyone know of if the movement is a vertical or horizontal clutch? I'm asking because I like the running seconds hand

It's a horizontal clutch...

Archer · Oct 6, 2020

jzra
Sorry if someone have already commented here about it but why Omega named this caliber as 3861 if clearly this one have extra parts to allow the ship and erth moves? Shouldn't it have another variation number for this caliber?

I have been puzzled by this also. Even if the mechanism in the case back is separate from the movement, there would have to be some way of triggering it, winding it, etc. So how this can be a "standard" 3861 is a question that I cannot answer.

I looked the reference up on the Omega Extranet yesterday, and no case parts are shown, and no movement listed. The only information on display is about the straps and manuals.

hb8745 · Oct 6, 2020

What are you guys being told for est delivery? I am projected early 21

midimanwatch · Oct 6, 2020

Check out this video

Boutique only item!!!

No ADs.

Therefore deposits are meaningless.

First come first serve basis after registering your interest with Omega.

No guarantee of getting one like I was saying from the start and this is coming from an OB.

midimanwatch · Oct 6, 2020

Martin_J_N
In theory yes, in reality probably no. Stores will look after their VIP's first. Why upset the VIP to give you a walk-in the first watch?

Going back to the deposit bit.

It's a Boutique only item!!!
No ADs.
Therefore deposits are meaningless.
First come first serve basis after registering your interest with Omega.
No guarantee of getting one.
Kind of like what I was saying from the start and this is coming from an OB.

They emailed me to say I am now on the list after officially registering my interest.

I'm not even sure if they were taking official lists before it came out. i.e "Please don't call before the lines are open"

But they can't say nothing now because I have confirmation of the date and time of when I submitted my interest and it was about 3 minutes after it officially came out on their website.

It's First come, first serve according to them.

People are already complaining about the price and other things about it. So I just hope that all of this helps to make things a bit easier.

griffith_500 · Oct 6, 2020

Archer
I looked the reference up on the Omega Extranet yesterday, and no case parts are shown, and no movement listed. The only information on display is about the straps and manuals.

Archer, would you be so kind to check if a size small band is already available? Thanks!
I‘m asking because I‘m still waiting for availability of this size for my Alinghi Speedmaster...

Caliber561 · Oct 6, 2020

M midimanwatch
Check out this video

Boutique only item!!!

No ADs.

Therefore deposits are meaningless.

First come first serve basis after registering your interest with Omega.

No guarantee of getting one like I was saying from the start and this is coming from an OB.

What does the video have to do with anything in your post? I have no idea where you're getting your information, and I'm not keen on taking your word over my OB's. It's already been established that if you are in the US, you are guaranteed a watch if you have made a deposit already.

dstfno · Oct 6, 2020

Archer
I have been puzzled by this also. Even if the mechanism in the case back is separate from the movement, there would have to be some way of triggering it, winding it, etc. So how this can be a "standard" 3861 is a question that I cannot answer.

I looked the reference up on the Omega Extranet yesterday, and no case parts are shown, and no movement listed. The only information on display is about the straps and manuals.

Maybe there are some extra gears on the inside of the caseback? That connect with one of the wheels of the movement to get them spinning and do not require the movement to be modified?

Anyway, I’m purely speculating 😗

Caliber561 · Oct 6, 2020

dstfno
Maybe there are some extra gears on the inside of the caseback? That connect with one of the wheels of the movement to get them spinning and do not require the movement to be modified?

Anyway, I’m purely speculating 😗

Also speculating here, but I suspect the animation might be simpler than one would initially think.
The earth is almost definitely affixed to an extended pivot on the 3861's fourth wheel. The snoopy CSM is probably a "hand" of sorts mounted on an extended pivot for the chronograph runner. If this is how the animation is accomplished, I don't think any additional parts are required, as the only thing really needed is the lengthening of the pivots for the mentioned parts.

pauly · Oct 6, 2020

G GT3
If so, next time neither loyal nor new customer will take the chance. Many of you didn’t.... until maybe now you saw the watch.

I just effectively signed up to say that you are the most arrogant and condescending person I have ever read comments from on this forum. I am normally a reader but today you have made me a contributor due to your truly repugnant attitude.

My suggestion, why not go to a more 'prestigious' brand forum ... or maybe just maybe you don't actually have a patek or rolex and have never put a deposit down on any omega ever ... just saying 😀

Evitzee · Oct 6, 2020

I don't think there is any separate mechanism on the back, just a hand with the Snoopy capsule that is on the central chrono shaft, and an earth disc on the seconds sub-dial shaft. Those shafts would have to be a little longer to accept the hand and disc so their part numbers are probably unique, but everything else in the movement should be standard 3861, wouldn't it? People are oohing and ahhing over the back but there is no magic or special automaton mechanism here. It's novel, but many watches have had two faces driven by the same movement, plenty of Reversos have mechanisms on the back side.

As far as availability is concerned, just do a little math. Omega churned out 8,000 pieces of the two Apollo 11 versions with the 3861 movement in about a year. Even if Omega limits this one to only a two year run (and I would bet it will be much longer) they can make at least 16,000 examples, far more than any previous LE. This will not be that hard to score after the initial frenzy is satisfied unless Omega purposely throttles back production, and their revenue. Not likely.

Arctic228 · Oct 6, 2020

H hb8745
What are you guys being told for est delivery? I am projected early 21

I put down a full deposit yesterday over the phone at OB on 5th Ave NYC, they told me delivery would be 2021 (not sure when). Are there people who will be receiving it this month or during the holidays?

hb8745 · Oct 6, 2020

Even if you love the watch, there are only 3 scenarios where this watch should be considered fairly priced:
1. You believe that the production will indeed be limited, even while the Omega official release has specifically stated otherwise
2. You are price inelastic (read extremely wealthy) and/or detached from the value of money
3. Omega is your employer

The watch may be fairly priced to some on a personal level, but objectively, it's high and Omega knows it high. It's $2400 (33%) higher than the last snoopy. If you had the option today to choose either one (ignoring scarcity and resale values), would you rather spend the extra $2400 for the 50th? The A11 50th is also virtually the same price with more and LE.

Now if they are truly limiting the supply to where a lot of people can't acquire one, then I agree maybe it's fairly priced.

Archer · Oct 6, 2020

Caliber561
Also speculating here, but I suspect the animation might be simpler than one would initially think.
The earth is almost definitely affixed to an extended pivot on the 3861's fourth wheel. The snoopy CSM is probably a "hand" of sorts mounted on an extended pivot for the chronograph runner. If this is how the animation is accomplished, I don't think any additional parts are required, as the only thing really needed is the lengthening of the pivots for the mentioned parts.

Here is the movement, and I've indicated the fourth wheel (which already has the chronograph drive wheel attached), and the chronograph runner.

While it certainly could be as simple as you are suggesting, even with just these 2 changes, I would be surprised that Omega would not create a new caliber number for this movement. They change caliber numbers for very small changes, like decorative work as seen on the 1869, and the 1865. Even the change from 861 to 1861 was not terribly substantial in the movement itself...add one more jewel and change the finish essentially, so at the very least this doesn't fit the typical pattern.

But I have to say, if this is indeed all they have done, that would raise a number of technical concerns for me personally. My understanding is that the "earth" on the case back rotates all the time, and if so there is an added load here. Similar concern with the flying command module, as if this is simply an extension of the chronograph wheel back pivot, there is an added load to be taken into account, and also added forces on reset that need to be dealt with...if in fact this module "resets" with the chronograph hand - I'm not clear if any video shows that.

Both of these issues would lead me to believe that there is more to this than simple extensions of posts, and sticking things on those extensions...

Karusel · Oct 6, 2020

Sounds like the deposit list is closed, at least in the US. OBs calling partial depositors now for updates.

Nyrmala · Oct 6, 2020

H hb8745
Even if you love the watch, there are only 3 scenarios where this watch should be considered fairly priced:
1. You believe that the production will indeed be limited, even while the Omega official release has specifically stated otherwise
2. You are price inelastic (read extremely wealthy) and/or detached from the value of money
3. Omega is your employer

The watch may be fairly priced to some on a personal level, but objectively, it's high and Omega knows it high. It's $2400 (33%) higher than the last snoopy. If you had the option today to choose either one (ignoring scarcity and resale values), would you rather spend the extra $2400 for the 50th? The A11 50th is also virtually the same price with more and LE.

Now if they are truly limiting the supply to where a lot of people can't acquire one, then I agree maybe it's fairly priced.

+1

TokenMao · Oct 6, 2020

Evitzee
I don't think there is any separate mechanism on the back, just a hand with the Snoopy capsule that is on the central chrono shaft, and an earth disc on the seconds sub-dial shaft. Those shafts would have to be a little longer to accept the hand and disc so their part numbers are probably unique, but everything else in the movement should be standard 3861, wouldn't it? People are oohing and ahhing over the back but there is no magic or special automaton mechanism here. It's novel, but many watches have had two faces driven by the same movement, plenty of Reversos have mechanisms on the back side.

As far as availability is concerned, just do a little math. Omega churned out 8,000 pieces of the two Apollo 11 versions with the 3861 movement in about a year. Even if Omega limits this one to only a two year run (and I would bet it will be much longer) they can make at least 16,000 examples, far more than any previous LE. This will not be that hard to score after the initial frenzy is satisfied unless Omega purposely throttles back production, and their revenue. Not likely.

I agree with you that production capacity likely won't be the limiting factor (although who knows with the pandemic and potential shutdowns), the bigger deal is how Omega will play this. While they could make 16,000 units across two years, I don't see there being demand for 16,000 units... the blue spectre LE had 15k units and didn't sell well.

The question of supply and impacting revenue, I don't think it's a given conclusion that Omega won't constrain supply in some way. If they're trying to move upmarket, increase the prestige of the brand, and profitability long term, then some sort of perceived exclusivity or scarcity goes a long way. Whether it's Rolex, Patek, or AP, my guess is a decent chunk of their revenue is driven by people who want the "unobtainable" pieces like Daytona, Nautilus, RO, and instead settle for something else in the lineup instead. I don't think this snoopy is going to be even close to that degree of supply demand imbalance, but it's probably not the other extreme either where Omega floods the market with all it can handle and more. A reasonable middle ground to me is make the Snoopy scarce enough that the majority of people who want one can get one after some waiting, that creates a perceived exclusivity with Omega coming through in terms of delivering the watch, and probably lets it retain its value decently. If Omega produces so many that you can walk into an OB and out with it on your wrist same day then they probably increase their short term revenue slightly but risks pissing off customers who care about value retention. For the people buying the snoopy this time round, would you do it again if you knew hypothetically that the value would drop 50%, and how would that impact your future purchasing decision with Omega special edition watches? I think Omega has to be considering that as well. Only time will tell though, even right now it's hard to tell if the people putting down deposits now and getting a end of year 2021 estimate, is that 1 year wait due to actual or artificial constraints?

Capt Cave Man · Oct 6, 2020

Evitzee
As far as availability is concerned, just do a little math. Omega churned out 8,000 pieces of the two Apollo 11 versions with the 3861 movement in about a year. Even if Omega limits this one to only a two year run (and I would bet it will be much longer) they can make at least 16,000 examples, far more than any previous LE. This will not be that hard to score after the initial frenzy is satisfied unless Omega purposely throttles back production, and their revenue. Not likely.

Agreed, it's not an LE so overall numbers will be based on # years it will be in production. IMHO this is pretty much following the A11 release.

Will they produce these at capacity like the A11 products, I suspect not. Omega, off the success of the A11 # pieces sold and the value of the last Snoopy have created a luxury in-demand item based on perceived availability vs. desirability vs. cost.

Let's estimate 6k per year, that's still ~12k pieces in two years @ £8,250 and a limited production meeting demand based on the last Snoopy and pushing the envelope regarding prices on last years A11. It sounds like initially OB sales only, maintaining the lions share for Omega during initial demand and then opened up to ADs at a later date, again similar to the A11.

If we are also correct in that the A11 bracelet fits the case, this maintains a revenue stream based on the product, I suspect reaching an overall target. I suspect Omega HQ are considering ~2 years with option to extend.

My theory is based on that they wouldn't want to continue a Snoopy Anniversary for too long with a cal. 3861 in the standard Speedmaster Professional at some point in the near future which will increase overall revenue from a base product.

AllHerMovements · Oct 6, 2020

Hi folks, There is so much information in this thread. And so much speculation. It’s hard to keep track! But does anyone know for a fact that it is OB only? I’m not seeing that and my local AD has said he will get an allocation of this watch in 2021. I see that some other folks are talking to ADs about it too. It would be great to see that as another avenue to acquire one.

weimi1 · Oct 6, 2020

My AD confirmed to me today that he would only be able to get watches in the first or second quarter of 2021. The OB will be supplied first.
Should Omega deliver like the caliber 321, I am assuming 2022.