market value vs real value

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I've just had this conversation with ChatGPT, do you think it is true? It just gives me additional feelings about how much the watch market is broken and how much watches are depreciating quickly.

How many watches Longines was making a year in the 40s?

ChatGPT said:​


In the 1940s, Longines was producing approximately 100,000 watches annually. The exact number varied depending on the year and circumstances, particularly because production was influenced by World War II. During this time, Longines was a key supplier of watches for military use, including aviation and navigation timepieces, which contributed to their output levels.

By comparison, production had steadily increased after the war as the demand for quality Swiss watches grew globally.

You said:​

How many watches a year Rolex is currently producing?

ChatGPT said:​


Searched 2 sites
Rolex is estimated to produce around 1 million to 1.25 million watches annually. Despite being a private company that doesn’t disclose exact production figures, analysts use industry trends, dealer activities, and supply chain data to approximate this number. The figure reflects Rolex's effort to balance meeting global demand while maintaining the exclusivity and prestige of its brand

You said:​

How much a Longines watch from the 40s would cost today considering the inflation?

ChatGPT said:​


To estimate the cost of a Longines watch from the 1940s in today's terms, we can apply the cumulative inflation rate.

In the 1940s, a high-quality Swiss watch like a Longines might have cost around $100 (a rough approximation based on historical luxury watch prices). Using the U.S. dollar as an example, cumulative inflation from 1940 to 2024 is approximately 1,800%.

Calculation:​

  • Original price: $100
  • Inflation-adjusted price: $100 × (1 + 18) = $1,900 in 2024 dollars.

Additional Considerations:​

However, vintage Longines watches can command significantly higher prices due to their collector value, rarity, and historical significance, especially for specific models like the chronographs or military-issued pieces. Depending on the condition, provenance, and model, the market price can range from $2,000 to $10,000 or more today.
 
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So what exactly is your question?
 
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So what exactly is your question?

I got to the end of the post and was thinking the same.
 
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I'm new here and everywhere, my question is does anyone have any understanding of why it happens? I can't we can't only blame marketing.
But no real questions I agree. I just wanted to share a naive feeling.
 
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It would help if you briefly summarise your point. Your first paragraph talks about “watches depreciating quickly” then you point to once adjusted for inflation, vintage Longines have outperformed the dollar.

I think the issue here is people are struggling to add their opinion as they’re not sure what point you’re making.
 
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It would help if you briefly summarise your point. Your first paragraph talks about “watches depreciating quickly” then you point to once adjusted for inflation, vintage Longines have outperformed the dollar.

I think the issue here is people are struggling to add their opinion as they’re not sure what point you’re making.
No worries. Sorry to people; happy to delete my post.
 
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Not at all. We like discussions but I don’t understand what the point/question is
 
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I've just had this conversation with ChatGPT, do you think it is true? It just gives me additional feelings about how much the watch market is broken and how much watches are depreciating quickly.

How many watches Longines was making a year in the 40s?

ChatGPT said:​


In the 1940s, Longines was producing approximately 100,000 watches annually. The exact number varied depending on the year and circumstances, particularly because production was influenced by World War II. During this time, Longines was a key supplier of watches for military use, including aviation and navigation timepieces, which contributed to their output levels.

By comparison, production had steadily increased after the war as the demand for quality Swiss watches grew globally.

You said:​

How many watches a year Rolex is currently producing?

ChatGPT said:​


Searched 2 sites
Rolex is estimated to produce around 1 million to 1.25 million watches annually. Despite being a private company that doesn’t disclose exact production figures, analysts use industry trends, dealer activities, and supply chain data to approximate this number. The figure reflects Rolex's effort to balance meeting global demand while maintaining the exclusivity and prestige of its brand

You said:​

How much a Longines watch from the 40s would cost today considering the inflation?

ChatGPT said:​


To estimate the cost of a Longines watch from the 1940s in today's terms, we can apply the cumulative inflation rate.

In the 1940s, a high-quality Swiss watch like a Longines might have cost around $100 (a rough approximation based on historical luxury watch prices). Using the U.S. dollar as an example, cumulative inflation from 1940 to 2024 is approximately 1,800%.

Calculation:​

  • Original price: $100
  • Inflation-adjusted price: $100 × (1 + 18) = $1,900 in 2024 dollars.

Additional Considerations:​

However, vintage Longines watches can command significantly higher prices due to their collector value, rarity, and historical significance, especially for specific models like the chronographs or military-issued pieces. Depending on the condition, provenance, and model, the market price can range from $2,000 to $10,000 or more today.
For posteriority..
 
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Welcome to the forum!

my question is does anyone have any understanding of why it happens?
I think everyone loves discussion here, but you probably want to clarify your question. “Why it happens?” … why what happens?

Not all Longines are outperforming the dollar, clearly. Some will be, because they are rare and in collector condition (but often they were already “pricey” back then), or because they have acquired some prestige over the years for any reason (iconic model, famous people wearing them, associated with a major event, whatever)

There are also other watches to be found still cheap these days, and likely below past retail adjusted for inflation.
 
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Things are worth what people are willing to pay. Watches are tools. Over time they succumb to life, financial pressures if gold etc, so the survivors are not necessarily ubiquitous, or pretty or prized. Those that are will sell for what the market will bear.
 
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In general, consumer goods do depreciate and their value goes to zero pretty rapidly. Collectible items are the exception, and their values fluctuate at the whims of collectors.

I would say that most Longines watches from the 1940s are worth substantially less than $1900, we just tend to focus on the desirable examples. Moreover, the price of vintage watches is not necessarily correlated with how many were produced. There's no reason to assume that the value of a watch should increase at all over time.

I don't think I understand the connection with modern Rolex production numbers in the post or how the data illuminate the way in which the watch market is broken. No criticism, but like others, I am struggling to understand the topic being discussed.
 
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I find it's very weird having to respond to something chatgpt has come up with, this is a discussion forum to get other people's thoughts not what AI thinks.