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Market effect of trade wars? (Or wars period?)

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Syrte
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Hi everyone,

This is not an inquiry about anything political- however the past month or so has brought many unexpected contingencies in sight, and since this is one of the most mature and rational communities I’m aware of on the web, I’m very curious as to your thoughts on how any of the following might play out on world markets and also impact specific markets such as watches, art and collectibles, real estate, gold, bitcoin:

- tariffs and trade wars between US, Europe; Mexico, Canada, China;

-unauthorized US military troops landing in Greenland;

-unauthorized Russian troop incursion or attack on the territory of an EU member state.

Note I’m not including Taiwan because it seems to me the Chinese will first wait to see how the above plays out before they make a move.

Ready, get set, go- with many thanks for your thoughts.🙏
 
big case
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"... has brought many unexpected ..."

and will bring many more unexpected ...

so no one knows, but there is one thing everyone from us can do:

stay in love with our watches and perhabs they can give us
resistance in times when there is a lot of trouble
 
Fallout Boy
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Nothing is eaten as hot as it is cooked and none of this will happen so extremely.

The EU is attached to the US – and not so much the other way around. And Trump is reshuffling the cards. That was clear to everyone – at least to me. And this has been the case since the summer of 2024.
Russia's army is not in a position to invade another country. That would be suicide. Even Ukraine did not work out as planned.
Taiwan is and remains a plaything – nothing more.
And most of the world wants improvements in life such as freedom, consumption (unfortunately) and a better life for their children.

I keep it with "world history" and invested assets like Kostolany: On the stock market, 2 times 2 are never 4, but 5 minus 1. You just have to have the nerve to endure the minus 1.
 
Canuck
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IMG_2947.webp

My being Canadian, I can see this discussion becoming political in a hurry! Canada is not for sale! Just how two Blackhawk helicopters deployed to protect the longest border in the world separating two countries is gonna help keep the U S military out of our country is going to work, I have no idea! But there are other ways of staying sovereign!
 
river rat
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I think Russia, China, communist Korea will do a tag team all at the same time. Russia attacking NATO, China invading Taiwan, communist Korea going across the DMZ all at the same time and how we are unprepared there will be nothing we can do. It sort of happening communist Korea already helping Russia in Ukraine. America use to be tough we are showing are weakness. When I was in the navy we did not give Russia a inch when on west pac the USS Kitty Hawk got tired of a Russian victor class submarine playing tag with it and ran over the little prick had to be towed back to Russia and part of the sub prop was stuck in the aircraft carrier haul we did not take crap from Russia. But then we had a tougher president who also brought down the Berlin Wall who did not give Russia an inch. To this day I don’t trust Russia. But I grew up in the Cold War another tough president did the Cuba blockade and Russia pulled there nukes out of Cuba you can’t be weak to Russia or they walk all over you like there doing now.
Edited:
 
river rat
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I live in Montana we’re 70% of our oil comes from Canada with the tariffs for the longest our gas was under 3 bucks a gallon now it’s over 3 bucks and still rising.it might hit California gas prices.
 
Ron_W
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river rat river rat
you can’t be weak to Russia or they walk all over you like there doing now
100% 👍

OT ; outright war will mean -30 / -50% on markets, except weapon stock and oil. A lesser conflict is a gamble to predict but it will hurt watches & jewelry and LVMH, Hermes and Rolex in EU. We can expect between 11 and 20 mill Ukranians to flee west if poo collides with the fan, so we all need to worry about water, heating, housing and food first. Not watches.

https://www.nssmag.com/en/fashion/38437/middle-east-luxury-fashion-industry-impact by war

and a Bloomberg study ;
https://www.watchpro.com/what-effect-has-the-russia-ukraine-war-had-on-the-luxury-goods-market/

Canuck Canuck
Just how two Blackhawk helicopters deployed to protect the longest border in the world

You guys have Mounties !! No worries !!
 
Joe_A
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I belong to a forum community where the host has no moderators set up . . . and literally anything goes . . . and that is where a small group of diverse individuals from Cambodia to Finland and all places in between discuss geopolitics. People who are members here would suffer shock if they were to pop in over there. 😉

When it comes to politics, you won't hear a peep out of me either here or on FB or anywhere else where one may easily offend friends and family.

Our other place is a tiny spot on the Internet compared with this place, but the discussions are, shall we say, quite lively. I would not mind seeing an "off-topic" discussion sub-forum attached to this place . . . as the membership is large and diverse, but it would probably get out of hand from the viewpoint of most in here very quickly . . . and management as well as many community members would be unhappy just in knowing it existed. And I respect this . . . This place is what hosts and benefactors want to make it.

All we would have to do here is put a few words next to one another such as Trump; Putin; Zelenskiy; Musk; Ukraine; Russia; Canada; Mexico; Starlink; bullying; ham-handed; Little Marco sells his soul on the cheap . . . possibly to attempt a moderating influence . . .

Trump recently had one of our websites adjusted to reflect that we are now pro Taiwan independence. I bet that was good for a laugh over at the Xi house?

You get the idea . . .

I could put another 250 words together in such a way in a flash, without giving it a thought . . . and it would probably appear as if I did not do much thinking. 😉

And we'd be off and running . . .

But I shall behave myself as I plan on remaining a good, respectful and welcome guest.
 
Dan S
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I don't even want to speculate on black swan events like military incursions, but the consequences of the policies that are already being implemented (and the way they are being implemented) are interesting to consider.

At the moment I think it's fair to say that we are facing significant chaos and uncertainty, which generally makes people spend more conservatively, so I don't see the collectible market strengthening any time soon.

More broadly, in the US, we are obviously seeing mass government layoffs, which will cause some economic hardship, likely spreading throughout the economy to government contractors, research hospitals, universities, etc. Less certain (but already baked into the market) are some price increases from tariffs and perhaps an actual uptick in inflation and interest rates staying higher for longer, which will be a continued drag on many sectors of the economy (residential real estate, etc). The deportation of immigrants seems to be going extremely slowly at the moment, but if that picks up, it could be another drag on the economy. In principle, these factors could lead to a stagflationary environment. Again, I'd expect people to move away from risk investments and purchase conservatively.

If they are pursued consistently, these policies, combined with reduced investment in research and training of scientists/engineers, will ultimately cede economic/technological/military dominance to China. Many people in the US have their heads in the sand about this, but if one looks back on the trajectory of the last 30 years, it starts to look almost inevitable. In that scenario, we will have a new world order, and collectible prices may well be determined by tastes in that country.

However, I also have little confidence that the US government will exhibit discipline and consistency with respect to any of these policies, which makes any prediction extremely uncertain. At any moment, if public sentiment swings strongly negative, I would not be surprised to see an abrupt about-face, with various appointees fired and scape-goated.
Edited:
 
pdxleaf
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Very little about what is happening in the USA right now is logical, so trying to use logic to predict the future won't work.

Regarding a future war, shooting wars are often kicked off by a spark that is unforeseen. However, the environment for a war is often predictable and similar. Nationalist fervor, identification of a scapegoat, economic collapse, a generation of citizens who have not experienced war, self-serving leaders. Personally, I think the chances of a war involving multiple first world nations within the next four years is greater than 50%.
 
Syrte
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Fallout Boy Fallout Boy
Nothing is eaten as hot as it is cooked and none of this will happen so extremely.

The EU is attached to the US – and not so much the other way around.
Perhaps- but to think it will take time is an optimistic view. I guess indeed the US is calculating trade wars will be more damaging for China and EU than for the US, but as far as I know there are US companies making a lot of money from EU citizens. Be it only the big tech companies. If all starts getting taxed, I have to believe a lot of people are going to be impacted.
 
Fallout Boy
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Syrte, Germany (and probably most Europe) is down if e.g. ORACLE or microsoft pull the plug. In a few minutes. my2cents
 
DaveK
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I’ve been typing and editing for half an hour. I have no idea what to say.
 
Stini
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There is SO much to be said. Or can be. It's possible accuracy at the moment can only be guessed at given the chaotic turn of one of the principle provocateurs right now. On the one hand as regards the collectible front, there is a certain amount of drunken self-satisfaction among some in the tech lord class such that, if you hit things just right for timing and taste, you might be able to direct a few baubles their way. On the other, I know I am pulling in my horns and working to adjust my physical environment where I can to emphasize (absolute best case scenario) restoration projects and optimizing more self-sufficiency where possible.

Pretty much everything is currently just whistling past the graveyard right now.
 
kippyk
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The pushback in America to policies will happen soon enough. Inflation, long lines and the airport, and dropping stock mareket will create dissatisfaction. Blaming the last guy for TSA lines when you fired people probably will not go over well. They are talking about messing with the post office. Old people love the post office! Wait until it costs $5 to send a letter. I already bought my tequila to avoid the tariffs.
 
Dan S
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kippyk kippyk
The pushback in America to policies will happen soon enough. Inflation, long lines and the airport, and dropping stock mareket will create dissatisfaction. Blaming the last guy for TSA lines when you fired people probably will not go over well. They are talking about messing with the post office. Old people love the post office! Wait until it costs $5 to send a letter. I already bought my tequila to avoid the tariffs.
My gut feeling is that you're right about the pushback. Everyone will be seeing some noticeable effects, regardless of what state they live in and who they voted for.

And while you're stocking up, don't forget the whiskey, although bourbon is a viable alternative. Unfortunately, we are doing some remodeling, and I think construction materials might see a spike.
Edited:
 
Larry S
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Dan S Dan S
I don't even want to speculate on black swan events like military incursions, but the consequences of the policies that are already being implemented (and the way they are being implemented) are interesting to consider.

At the moment I think it's fair to say that we are facing significant chaos and uncertainty, which generally makes people spend more conservatively, so I don't see the collectible market strengthening any time soon.

More broadly, in the US, we are obviously seeing mass government layoffs, which will cause some economic hardship, likely spreading throughout the economy to government contractors, research hospitals, universities, etc. Less certain (but already baked into the market) are some price increases from tariffs and perhaps an actual uptick in inflation and interest rates staying higher for longer, which will be a continued drag on many sectors of the economy (residential real estate, etc). The deportation of immigrants seems to be going extremely slowly at the moment, but if that picks up, it could be another drag on the economy. In principle, these factors could lead to a stagflationary environment. Again, I'd expect people to move away from risk investments and purchase conservatively.

If they are pursued consistently, these policies, combined with reduced investment in research and training of scientists/engineers, will ultimately cede economic/technological/military dominance to China. Many people in the US have their heads in the sand about this, but if one looks back on the trajectory of the last 30 years, it starts to look almost inevitable. In that scenario, we will have a new world order, and collectible prices may well be determined by tastes in that country.

However, I also have little confidence that the US government will exhibit discipline and consistency with respect to any of these policies, which makes any prediction extremely uncertain. At any moment, if public sentiment swings strongly negative, I would not be surprised to see an abrupt about-face, with various appointees fired and scape-goated.
+1 …Blow back already in progress.
 
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