Is watchmaking really a dying skill?

I’ve been collecting mechanical watches for nearly 25 years now. A lack of qualified watchmakers being an existential threat to our hobby is something I’ve heard regularly throughout that time. I see a reference to it on this forum almost weekly and I’ve never really questioned it until recently.
Given the massive increase in sales of new mechanical watches this century (Omega and Rolex supposedly sell about 1.5 million watches/year and maybe 20 million for Switzerland alone) surely the number of qualified watchmakers must have increased significantly at the same time. Of course most of those watchmakers might be working for the big Swiss brands but they’re still out there and newly qualified watchmakers must be coming through on a reasonably large scale to support the industry.
Certainly there’s no longer a watchmaker in every small town like there might have been in the 1950’s, but I can send my Speedmaster to one of the worlds leading specialist watchmakers and have it back in two or three months, so I wonder - is watchmaking really a dying skill?

I don't think so. My go to independent watchmaker is by no means approaching retirement age and he has three watchmakers on staff who are all under 40. I know of other independents who are of similar age. IMO, the fear is overblown. The real threat to independents in my view is the move by some brands to restrict OEM parts availability and to keep the servicing revenue to themselves (yes, I'm talking about you, Rolex, but you're not alone in this).

If you want a watchmaker in your current town…well probably yes…if your happy to ship No

Someone says it on the internet and all of a sudden….
“I think it’s more a phenomenon where a flipper/pseudo dealer isn’t prepared to pay a watchmaker that it leads to the “no watchmakers” myth.”

Given the costly investment in equipment and the decrease in desire to do skilled manual labor I think it is a dying profession.

I found this video on the topic pretty insightful, it's from a watchmaker in the Netherlands:

Well… since I live in Sweden,
we only have a few options here with independent watchmakers that can work with Omega vintagewatches that have the 321 movement.
The few that I have spoken with have told me that they have done this before, but having problems with spare parts etc.
And I have read about some services done by these, and it ended with replacement parts etc…
The same goes with Breitling and Heuer watches, nobody really wants to work with these here..
861 movements and other "easier" movements have not been a problem.

Since I do like to have my Speedys (and other vintage watches) as original as possible, my solution has been to visit Simon Freese.
There are of course other independent watchmakers in Europe, but I do love London!

We have a couple of schools (university) that focus on watchmakers, and it takes 3 years!
Hopefully, these students would continue and take on the demand??

Google translate from their website:
WOSTEP
The watchmaking school is one of thirteen schools in the world that has a collaboration with the organization WOSTEP through the Swiss watch industry. WOSTEP stands for Watchmakers Of Switzerland Training and Educational Program and as a partner school the education is quality assured and standardized.

WOSTEP is the world's most famous and sought-after watch certificate. The certificate is issued by the Swiss Horological Institute and is valid worldwide. If you want to work internationally after your studies, the certificate is meritorious/a requirement for many employers.

The larger makers all have schools that they either run directly or sponsor. But a typical class size is 12 watchmakers, and they are not graduating watchmakers at a rate that is replacing those that are retiring or dying off. So even with all the new watchmakers being turned out, there is a net loss every year.

Brands have adjusted for this by moving more and more of the work watchmakers did in the past, to unskilled labour that are trained in a very specific portion of the job. They are also replacing whole movements instead of servicing them - for that a watchmaker never touches the watch and it's all done by people hired off the street and trained. Despite all this, service times have gone from typically a few weeks, to more commonly several months. The idea that the brands are still keeping up really isn't true.

Here are US Bureau of Labour stats on the number of watchmakers in the US:



So they estimate that there are 1880 watchmakers in the US. Given the market that the US is for luxury watches, this is not a big number. It used to be in the tens of thousands.

The Swiss industry recognizes that there is a shortage of watchmakers, and that this is a very large problem, for them:

Can’t Buy the Watch You Want? It’s Partly a Lack of Watchmakers. - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

So is it dying? Well if you mean that there will be no watchmakers in the future, then certainly not. Is there a huge shortage? Yes, absolutely.

The last report I read was that SWITZERLAND alone needs 1,000 watchmakers a year for the next 4 years to make up for increased demand and retirement. That's not the RoW.

Not counting the work that will eventually need to be performed on your ever increasing collection, Erric. That's at least another 500 watchmakers. 😁

Ugh, that's a reason I started tinkering and realized it was a huge endeavor. Not having any kind of schooling nearby makes it tough.

I have been collecting for over 30 years. I have been hearing this cry for that time and again. It was why I took the time to learn some basics from friends so I could self service.

I know of at least 3 watchmakers within 15 miles (or a few kilometers.) None though are Omega certified, They are however as busy as ever when I stop by. Some of it is appraisal. Others seem to want to show off their Rollex. They must be competent or else the business would not survive. At least two of them seem to be multi generational.

If I widen the net to 60 miles or so which covers the South San Francisco bay area, there are even more options. That includes the whole of the Silicon valley, which has over 100 years of watchmaking industry which is not well known.

I did get the feeling that watchmakers are somewhat territorial. This based on old trade journals. I have been informed that the good ones do network with each other.

The market is over saturated and has been for decades probably going back to the late 1960s.

Then there are all those You Tube videos. What only show the 'fun' parts. @RevZMan123 was inspired for a while by these. Hopefully he can find the time for some in person instruction.

I have also been experimenting with modern maker space stuff. There is some real potential for AI in the sorting of parts. I have a lot of books and ephemera. Much of what is now available online. This could be trained to recognize parts. Watch manufacturing is a statistical process. So is the repair. @Archer pointed out that much of the factory work is semi skilled trained to do a single task. This is the result of the efficiency experts of the 1920s. like the Galbreths who wrote the book "Cheaper by the dozen." This mass marketing statistics is what drives the big box stores. So there is a lot of AI research happening in this area.

A Co2 Laser cutter what can cut acrylic, can make all sorts of fixtures and such. I only just started working with the fiber laser what is best at engraving metal. There is a lot of lens distortion in the fiber laser. That could be compensated for. I have spent just as many decades exploring photogramertry and the images of the mechanical dolls I wanted to replicate when I was 12 years old.

I have this old book on grinding parts (ironically called 21st century watchmaking.) The problem with this tech and CNC type tech is that one needs the patterns (programs to work with.) I actually constructed an EDM machine. (which may still be in a back shelf at the maker space.) They just got the frame of a plasma cutter. That could have some real potential, As I could use it to cut some heavy metal fixtures for making my own specialized tools.

George Daniels asked me when I was going to make my watch? An idea I have toyed with from time to time. But I would not make one watch I would make say 10 watches, seven which to sell and keep the other three for parts. I could have done this any time in the last 30 years, but I did not do such as there are too many distractions (like pipe organs.) Sometimes it seems like the days are not long enough, so by the time I have booted the CAD program and re learned the settings it is time to do something else. Then the 7 friends I would have sold the watches to are all dead. So what is the point?

It is much easier to simply hit command-R for refresh than to take the time to actually program in any of this. And that is much of the reason why there is limited cheap labor. As this same labor force has been taught to keep swiping left to see what comes next.

For watchmakers? Yes, there was a time when you couldn't throw a rock without hitting one, but those days are long gone. Keep in mind that watchmakers are not evenly sprinkled around the US, or around the world. I would expect larger population centers like California and others to have plenty - in fact the bureau of labour stats prove that out. Overall there is a massive shortage, of that there is no debate.


It was Frank Jr. and his sister that wrote the book. Saw the 1950 movie version of this back in school in my motion study class - Therbligs and all that. Would love to see it again.

I mean watch production. There are billions of watches in this world. The watchmaker shortage has been going on since Timex started selling watches in 5 and dime stores. (If one believes the old trade magazines.)

Division of labor affected the film idustry a lot. Especially the Disneys. I can not remember if they made that film or not. These ideas affected labor issues a lot. And still do. - just look at the actors strike.

I do not think watchmakers ever unionized. Probably as it was simply cheaper to move production to another country. Many people like my dad think Rollexes are made in china. Or at least the component parts are. They were on every street corner he said when the cruse ship docked. It is all about the brand naming and marketing.

I think watchmaking has gone the same way. I is no longer a personal walk in. Now one has to send the watch off. And likely to a foreign country. That may be the elephant in the room. Last spring I read that book on the Japanese watch industry. Watch trade is highly regulated and taxed. (which is a complaint heard here often.) Access to parts borders on illegal business practice. Which would not be tolerated in other industries. Or even some countries. Of course parts access does lead to abuse and the creations of frakens and fantasy watches. Something I myself, guilty of in my own collection of rat and mod watches, which are not really salable as anything other than an "Art project." or "parts."

I think the days of flipping watches, buying such and getting a cheap repair and sell the result are numbered. Which is what I mean my the market is saturated. Too many at the moment want to sell (to pay for inflation.) and not enough want to buy at unsustainable prices. The whole point of getting a cheap watchmaker seems to be to get a watch that can be flipped for another when the novelty of the watch wears off. And what does one do with the profits? Re invest them, or squander them on a consumable that is fun and satisfies the moment.

There is also the issue of liability. And people who are good at jumping through bureaucratic hoops, probably do not have the mental wherewithal for watchmaking. It really does take a network of friends and acquaintances to do proper. Yet the myth is of the lone watchmaker, who is not all that much different than a fairy godmother working alone in an attic somewhere high on top of a mountain. I have poor time management and often to the one thing I should not be doing instead to the project that someone else wants me to do even when both are equally beneficial.

On the other hand I do not see watch repair going away. If the markets correct and watches are dumped for pennies on the dollar, young people will pick them up and figure out something to do with the parts. Note how popular steampunk was 20 years ago. I keep getting told I should make you tube videos (like the market is not already saturated.) If something is perceived as easy, then there will be many who practice that industry. It the fad gets out of hand, then there will be those who come along and regulate it or find other ways to profit from it.

Sure a lot of stuff will wind up in the landfill. Other stuff will be botched and badly repaired. And of course there will be a few who can do the work. But it will not be cheap.

I guess if it does we will just get Apple Watches which is what everyone seems to be doing.
https://stocks.apple.com/Ao5gtTz8XSBGkwE_gnHXxQg

Speaking only for myself: “When hell freezes over.”

Ah but they are so seductive. Especially when one gets one for less than a fast food meal.

I also take it that you have not read Dante. The inner circles of hell are the coldest. Hell has been frozen a long time.

I have read the Inferno, but stand by my opinion. I have an iPhone, but don’t need another one strapped to my wrist. I have no desire to be connected 24/7.