I would like to purchase a Speedmaster. I am considering a lot of different references including the Speedmaster Professional either hesalite or sapphire version. However, I am really interested in purchasing something slightly less common including the Speedy Tuesday or the Soyuz 35 Anniversary.

My favorite Speedmaster is actually the Silver Snoopy 45th Anniversary, however, this is way over my desired price range. Which brings me to my question - how do you determine value?

Not current retail value - but what the watches are actually selling for. The Speedy Tuesday is usually listed for $9 to $10K. This is for a watch that sold for $6,500. How do you go about determining what you are willing to pay for a limited edition? Is the ST worth a 50% premium? I understand the Soyuz was selling for $5 to $6K a few years ago, but is now commanding over $10K. How do you determine value?

I should mention that I am purchasing for my own enjoyment with no intention of selling. For what it's worth, my only current watch is a Rolex Sub that I purchased new 30 years ago. However, I have trouble reconciling buying a watch at a huge premium over retail, and then seeing it significantly fall in price.

Thoughts and opinions are welcome. Thank you for listening.

 

Only you can decide what you feel a watch is worth, pick the Speedy you like and make an offer. Personally there's nothing wrong with a bread and butter hesalite Speedy.

 

You determine value by deciding what you are willing to pay for it.

 

I'm in exactly the same camp as you -- loved a lot of these releases, missed out on all of them, and am now trying to figure out whether I want to pay the premium.

Grey market value is determined almost entirely by supply and demand, whereas pricing from the manufacturer is more of an estimate. Demand right now is very high, as the economy has been good, allowing more buyers to enter the market for luxury goods like watches, as well as increasing the buying power of buyers that were already in the market. Additionally, it seems that watches, for whatever reason, have really taken off in the last year or two.

About a week ago, I compared grey market prices from 18 months ago to the current ones for a lot of references from various brands, and found increases that were often close to 50% and occasionally up to/in excess of 100%! I think it's fair to say that, at the moment, we're in a watch bubble, and that prices will fall at some point in the next couple of years when that bubble pops (likely due to an economic downturn, which is almost assured to happen within the next 24 months, IMO).

At the same time, though, prices for some of these references, especially limited editions like the Silver Snoopy and Speedy Tuesday, still have a good chance of going up in price from current levels over the longer term, and may or may not be affected when the "bubble" pops. To me, when these limited editions sell out immediately, that's a sign that they were priced artificially low by Omega on release, and the prices in the secondary market are really the "true" prices that are determined by supply and demand. As such, I don't necessarily think it's such a big deal to pay these "premiums," as they aren't really premiums -- it's more that those who bought at MSRP effectively got a discount.

If you like these watches, I think you should feel fine buying them for prices more than MSRP -- as long as what you're paying seems in line with what others have paid in recent sales of the same watch, you won't likely won't take a big loss if you ever decide to sell. For example, I paid above MSRP for a new Rolex Sea-Dweller last December because ADs were quoting me ridiculous wait times. I decided it was too big for me after 9 months of wearing it and sold it for a $500 loss, and I could have done better had I been more patient. That's really not bad at all -- $500 of depreciation on a watch that I bought brand new and sold in clearly used (was still in good condition, but nobody would have mistaken it for a new watch) condition 9 months later. Similarly, I bought a Planet Ocean at a 30% discount to MSRP, barely wore it, recently tried to sell it and I would have only gotten about 60% of what I paid. Conventional wisdom would have said that I would've done better on the watch I got a discount on than the one I paid a premium for, but that wasn't at all the case.

Hope that helps!

 

and for what the Seller is willing to let it go..

 

Yes, yes, yes - I understand that selling price is determined by what a seller is willing to sell for, and what a buyer is willing to pay. This is obvious. However, what I am asking is how have folks that paid over retail determined that the price was reasonable and realistic?

Is it as simple as saying I want to buy a Speed Tuesday (for example) and the watch sites and forums are selling it for $10K so that is a good price? Yes - that is the current market price as defined by a willing seller and buyer. However, is that a reasonable and realistic price? Let's say the market was getting $20K - would you pay that? How does one determine how much over retail is a reasonable and realistic price?

 

check Watch Patrol. They have pricing graphs for many models

 

Everyone is different, but I wouldn't pay over the retail price for any watch, but others will pay the market price to get the latest hot watch.

 

In most Omegas you can buy under MSRP, (even new); used pieces you can do even better. I like a lot the Apollo Soyuz but prices for them are too high in my opinion, the same applies to the Speedy Tuesday 1 and 2, where basically you are just getting a regular 3570 Speedy with just a different dial.

Here is my 3572 besides an ST2: Is the ST2 worth a $4k premium (at list price) over the older piece? I don't think so

 

Different people has different price preferences. But what I've found to be a great influencer are auctions. Both on eBay and large auction houses. If a certain highly publiticed Speedmaster (Snoopy or exotic dial or vintage) reaches a new price point, usually sellers will try to ask more for the other similar models too. And if it sells then a new higher price has been reached. But then following the new higher price, the pool of buyers also decreases.

 

Exactly my point. How does the different dial justify that premium?

By the way - love that strap on your speedy. It looks nicer than the ST2 sitting next to it.

 

I think you're missing the point though. One person might be totally happy to pay 2x retail because they really, really, really want the watch. Others may prefer to hunt high and low until they find that awesome deal and 30% off in some backwater AD. For modern, there isn't really a benchmark other than MSRP. Once the watch is in the wild, it's highly variable and somewhat volatile.

If you're talking value, consider the cost of manufacturing one of these watches. While it's not $20 in material and time, it's also not $6000 worth of material and time, so really, even MSRP is somewhat arbitrary. I'm sure Swatch Group has some science behind their price modeling and basically try to price them at the point at which they can sell as many as possible for the highest amount they can.

What's really more important, as a buyer, is don't extend yourself too far for a luxury item (i.e. don't go into debt for a watch). Set your budget and find something you love within the price range you're able to spend without getting uncomfortable.

 

Thanks. It is a "snoopy" band made by Jean Rousseau, who happens to make the one sold by Omega

 

Want to trade that Sub for a Speedy Tuesday? Then you won’t have paid much for the Speedy at all

 

http://speedmaster101.com/

 

Actually I would make that trade if not for the sentimental value of my Sub. A sub reference 16610 is currently selling for much less (around $6K) versus a Speedy Tuesday.

 

If it’s a 5513 and you change your mind give me a shout