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Hey you 'muricans ... get those Swiss watches pronto [tariffs and international trade]

pdxleaf
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Mtek Mtek
I read the article. Honestly, I could care less what the elite, who own like 90% of the stock market, have to say about government. I hope they continue to exit the market, find safety in bonds and hopefully lower the 10yr yield. It was going lower but today it looks like China is selling off billions of US debt and reversed.

I also read the article. The conclusion tripped me up. I go on alert when there is a sentiment that free markets are superior to government planning. There is of course a wide spectrum of variations between the two extremes. In my mind, a well-functioning and thoughtful government will lead to conditions that produce a middle-class, whereas an unbridled free market will lead to extreme wealth alongside extreme poverty. But I am probably thinking of the worst the free market could do whereas free market advocates look at the worst that government can produce.

At the moment, it's like we have the worst of both, free market ideals wrapped up in draconian government regulations? I'm struggling to understand the real goals with this administration's policy.
 
ErichPryde
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arturo7 arturo7
I'm a big fan of free trade, but this is a horrible analogy.

In your opinion, what makes it so bad?
 
Porteroso
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pdxleaf pdxleaf
I also read the article. The conclusion tripped me up. I go on alert when there is a sentiment that free markets are superior to government planning. There is of course a wide spectrum of variations between the two extremes. In my mind, a well-functioning and thoughtful government will lead to conditions that produce a middle-class, whereas an unbridled free market will lead to extreme wealth alongside extreme poverty. But I am probably thinking of the worst the free market could do whereas free market advocates look at the worst that government can produce.

At the moment, it's like we have the worst of both, free market ideals wrapped up in draconian government regulations? I'm struggling to understand the real goals with this administration's policy.
That's the thing, nobody knows how to interpret it, because nobody understands the end goal.

If the goal is to remove restrictions to free trade, like tariffs and non tariff barriers, Trump floated the idea in his first term and world leaders laughed at him. It could be this is what Trump thinks it takes to get world leaders to agree to it.

If it is really about trade deficits, we are in for a rough ride. But removing barriers to free trade, most countries might actually do it if tariff war is the alternativve.
 
ErichPryde
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Porteroso Porteroso
That's the thing, nobody knows how to interpret it, because nobody understands the end goal.

If the goal is to remove restrictions to free trade, like tariffs and non tariff barriers, Trump floated the idea in his first term and world leaders laughed at him. It could be this is what Trump thinks it takes to get world leaders to agree to it.

If it is really about trade deficits, we are in for a rough ride. But removing barriers to free trade, most countries might actually do it if tariff war is the alternativve.

There is a saying about attempting to apply logic to dissect and find meaning in a decision made in the absence of logic.
 
gatorcpa
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Mark020 Mark020
I think this is indeed the main reason why there are hardly any US made cars imported in Europe
There are hardly any U.S. made cars sold in America any more. Only trucks and SUV’s, most of which are too big for most local roads in Europe.

Basically, it’s Tesla, Corvette and Mustang for cars and that’s it for now. Although some would count all the Toyotas, Hondas, and Hyundai/Kia’s built here mostly with imported parts.
gatorcpa
 
Mark020
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Interesting. Was not aware of that. So where does (for instance) a Ram come from? Mexico?
 
ErichPryde
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Mark020 Mark020
Interesting. Was not aware of that. So where does (for instance) a Ram come from? Mexico?

Could be. I think the VIN number would start with a 3. Most of my cars have been built in Canada.

Edit: on the ram I'm getting mixed results from Google but it looks like many are made in Saltillo, Mexico and others might be built in michigan.
 
watchyouwant
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There is a different scenario ... If you poke the Panda Bear too much , they will, in one go
, sell their US Bonds . (Even a good business with rising Yields ... ) And then the USA will default . Which will trigger many unpleasant decisions Worldwide. Like replacing the US $ as the leading currency. And that effect will be like the Fall of the Roman Empire ... Interesting times ahead.
 
kfranzk
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@poteroso... "If the goal is to remove restrictions to free trade, like tariffs and non tariff barriers, Trump floated the idea..."
I would like tariff free economics, but how about non tariff barriers?
  • The European published majority and so the regulations do not like gen-manipulated food.
  • Electrical goods in Europe have to have be CE proven for safety reasons.
  • I think European cars directly imported to the US have to get a few technical changes and vice versa.
  • The US lawyer industry may accuse products, that are approved by the official authorities (e.g. Glyphosat by Monsanto).
  • European authorities do not allow Chlorine for chicken desinfection.
....
=> I doubt that all this can be harmonized? So concentrating on tariffs has better chances to get real.
Konrad
 
pdxleaf
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kfranzk kfranzk
[
[*]I think European cars directly imported to the US have to get a few technical changes and vice versa.
[
[*]European authorities do not allow Chlorine for chicken desinfection.
[/LIST]
....

There is a well known anecdote in the vintage VW community. The reason we don't have VW trucks in the USA is because of the chicken tax. Supposedly, Germany taxed chickens from the USA at 25%, so to retaliate the USA taxes German trucks at 25%. Germany then decided to not export trucks to the US.

VW trucks like this one,
IMG_20230603_175502_490.webp

Were still imported to Canada, but not to the US.

However, vehicles older than 25 years are permitted to enter the US if they were never imported. This 25 year rule is eagerly followed for some vehicles from Japan.

The US requires safety standards that includes crash testing and anti-theft of including the VIN on body parts. If a vehicle has never been imported and made within the last 25 years, you can import it if you first crash test it and prove it performs well. This of course is not economical.

I don't know how up to date this is for current models. Older models certainly had different safety standards. But there's got to be other reasons why certain models are not in the ISA but are in other countries. Duty and consumer taste are likely both factors. There are several small camper vehicles that are available in Europe only that many US citizens would love to buy, such as the VW California camper van. One good outcome of all this tariff policy would be the ability to import VW camper vans, but that is the opposite of what Trump is working towards. Say it with me, "I want my German Camper Van!"
 
Mtek
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gatorcpa gatorcpa
There are hardly any U.S. made cars sold in America any more. Only trucks and SUV’s, most of which are too big for most local roads in Europe.

Just an FYI, BMW is the top exported brand in the US, beating Ford and Chevy. The large X5, X6, X7 are made in South Carolina and are totally Americanized German cars. X5 pretty much started the luxury/performance suv craze. I think this is more of a quality issue, or perceived quality issue, with US domestic brands rather than size. I could be wrong.
 
pdxleaf
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Mtek Mtek
Just an FYI, BMW is the top exported brand in the US, beating Ford and Chevy. The large X5, X6, X7 are made in South Carolina and are totally Americanized German cars. X5 pretty much started the luxury/performance suv craze. I think this is more of a quality issue, or perceived quality issue, with US domestic brands rather than size. I could be wrong.
Ford Broncos are having a moment. Are they imported to Europe?
 
Archer
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Porteroso Porteroso
That's the thing, nobody knows how to interpret it, because nobody understands the end goal.

If the goal is to remove restrictions to free trade, like tariffs and non tariff barriers, Trump floated the idea in his first term and world leaders laughed at him. It could be this is what Trump thinks it takes to get world leaders to agree to it.

If it is really about trade deficits, we are in for a rough ride. But removing barriers to free trade, most countries might actually do it if tariff war is the alternativve.
It is clearly about trade deficits (if it is in fact about trade at all). The calculation is about trade deficits, what Trump talks about all the time is trade deficits. He says he has been doing so for 30 years.

I'm not sure how other places are reacting, but Canada being an early target for these tariffs, there is a massive movement to not only buy Canadian here as much as possible, but even more so to not buy American. Even if these tariffs go away tomorrow, I can assure you that sentiment is going to linger for a very long time here.

The amount that Canadians buy from the US is going down, and will stay down for a very long time I suspect, meaning that the likely outcome is that the trade deficit that the US has (in goods) will continue, despite of, and ironically partially because of the tariffs. Trump has already said that he wants to force the EU to take US energy exports. He's trying to negotiate outcomes, and that is not going to end well.
 
Mtek
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pdxleaf pdxleaf
Ford Broncos are having a moment. Are they imported to Europe?

I’m not sure. I don’t really follow these things other than BMW as I worked for the company for 12 yrs here in the US. I was in sales, but I always followed what was going on.
 
Mtek
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Archer Archer
Trump has already said that he wants to force the EU to take US energy exports. He's trying to negotiate outcomes, and that is not going to end well.

Trump was saying this in his first term, and he was 100% spot on. I remember Germany basically laughing at him at one of the meetings. The EU spends more on Russian energy now, than they do for aide to Ukraine. Trump deserves a lot of flak, but on this I agree with him.
 
Davidt
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Mtek Mtek
Trump was saying this in his first term, and he was 100% spot on. I remember Germany basically laughing at him at one of the meetings. The EU spends more on Russian energy now, than they do for aide to Ukraine. Trump deserves a lot of flak, but on this I agree with him.

That the EU should be forced to buy US energy?
 
Archer
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Davidt Davidt
That the EU should be forced to buy US energy?
Make extortion great again...
 
Mtek
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Davidt Davidt
That the EU should be forced to buy US energy?

Of course not, but now look at their alternative. They got it wrong,
 
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