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Hey you 'muricans ... get those Swiss watches pronto [tariffs and international trade]

Dan S
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NGO1 NGO1
I believe automotive from US to VN is somewhere 50-70%, last I heard from a dealer in Saigon.
Thanks, I found an article on that. They were 45%-64% until a couple of weeks ago when they were reduced. Apparently VN reduced tariffs across the board in recent weeks, hoping to soften the blow.
 
Archer
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Saw this last night and thought it was an interesting take to share.

IMG_1382.webp


Since making money from music is not easy these days with streaming often providing very little revenue, many bands rely on touring. For well known brands they can do okay from the ticket revenue, but talking to some of the lesser known bands, they often rely heavily on merchandise sales at concerts. This is why I have more band tee shirts than any other type of shirt, because I always buy a shirt or two at each event, in order to support the bands financially. This is going to be much more difficult for bands in the US now with these tariffs…and if a band from outside the US travels to the US, I guess if they bring merch with them, that may get hit with tariffs also?

Just another way that these will change things, and not in a good way.
 
pdxleaf
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Archer Archer
Since making money from music is not easy these days with streaming often providing very little revenue, many bands rely on touring. For well known brands they can do okay from the ticket revenue, but talking to some of the lesser known bands, they often rely heavily on merchandise sales at concerts. ...

Just another way that these will change things, and not in a good waway.
How bands have changed is a good example in my mind of what's happening now.

Bands used to make money on selling vinyl. Then it evolved until music is given away free and money is from touring.

People used to wonder what the internet would do. Why would anyone invest in a company that didn't make anything?

Today, EV technology and fighting climate change is huge business. But in the USA, our government stopped funding anything to do with these industries.

It's like our government wants to go back to making VHS tapes. Let's mine for coal! 🤪

There's so much that is appalling. Maybe the worst is that it's just so dumb.
Edited:
 
Dan S
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ExpiredWatchdog ExpiredWatchdog
I found the answer:
Bullshit.webp


Pure bullshit, of course.
It's a totally arbitrary formula that is made even sillier by the fact that the values of epsilon and phi were chosen to cancel each other out.
 
adonalsium
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The fact they based the tariff on trade deficit is insane. If we only traded with countries who could match our consumption, we would have zero trade partners.
 
BlackTalon
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pdxleaf pdxleaf
Your's is a wise choice. If a majority of people follow this sensible approach, we have the ingredients of a recession.

If the downturn is long enough and deep enough, it may make people realize that the stock market doesn't always go up, or at least not 100% in 5 years. Then you get back to buying new watches at a discount?
It's not going back to 'buying at a discount' as much as buying at prices that are a bit more palatable. There are a couple '60s Speedmasters I would eventually like to have in the collection, but frankly after the price jumps the last 7 or so years I cannot justify buying them. If they drop 25% or more, it's easier to pick up one or two without compromising spending for the house, etc.

I've lived there several recessions, and been an investor for at least 3, so the realities of the stock market have left a few deep scars on me here and there. Right now the IRA is getting hammered, but I have cash in there from the last 2 years that will be used to buy more funds once the drop gets a bit deeper. I have a 10+ year horizon for it, so hopefully the markets will be back to 'full speed ahead' for a few years before I start making withdrawals.
 
Dsloan
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adonalsium adonalsium
The fact they based the tariff on trade deficit is insane. If we only traded with countries who could match our consumption, we would have zero trade partners.
It's hurting my head. It's like no one in charge understands even the basics of macroeconomics. They put up huge tariffs one Madagascar and Laos because of the trade imbalance, like it was a bad thing they are doing to us... when the imbalance is because the USA just has way more wealth than these smaller nations.
 
Matt-998
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So if all of this is a failure - why have over 50 countries entered discussions with the Orange Man to bring down their national tariffs against the US ?

Including Taiwan that will remove all tariffs ......

1744008445053.webp
 
MRC
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Matt-998 Matt-998
So if all of this is a failure - why have over 50 countries entered discussions with the Orange Man to bring down their national tariffs against the US ?
It's like meeting a dog growling with its teeth bared by saying "Nice doggie."


while quietly picking up a rock.
 
Dan S
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Matt-998 Matt-998
So if all of this is a failure - why have over 50 countries entered discussions with the Orange Man to bring down their national tariffs against the US ?

Including Taiwan that will remove all tariffs ......

1744008445053.webp
I'm skeptical that it was necessary to crash the stock market and cause widespread chaos just to get other countries to the bargaining table. But TBH, if he is willing to pivot to mutual tariff reduction as a goal, that would be fantastic. Maybe if other countries lower their tariffs, it would allow him to save face and call it a win.
 
redzer007
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Not sure there are widespread significant tarrifs in place that grossly negative impact the US. Think most countries would eliminate tariffs to placate this nonsense. However even if they do, impact won't resolve trade imbalance, might even make it worse, probably make it more likely the US is flooded with more cheap crap they don't really need.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/h...ith-trumps-reciprocal-rates-for-them-67ba6d03


Regardless, no one wants instability, will however be interesting to see who shorted the market last week, if there is anyone still working in the SEC
 
Evitzee
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Dan S Dan S
I'm skeptical that it was necessary to crash the stock market and cause widespread chaos just to get other countries to the bargaining table. But TBH, if he is willing to pivot to mutual tariff reduction as a goal, that would be fantastic. Maybe if other countries lower their tariffs, it would allow him to save face and call it a win.
If that is the goal it might work, but if the goal is to use these very high tariffs to generate permanent income it will do real damage to the economy. Listening to the Prez I feel the latter. He's always liked tariffs as a permanent feature.
 
Archer
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Matt-998 Matt-998
So if all of this is a failure - why have over 50 countries entered discussions with the Orange Man to bring down their national tariffs against the US ?

Including Taiwan that will remove all tariffs ......

1744008445053.webp
You can get money from the bank by making out a withdrawal slip, or by bringing a gun. They are very different, but both are effective.
 
paddymoran
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A secondary consideration here is the impact on exchange rates. Granted they are volatile but in the last week the Swiss Franc has gained 5% against the US$ - a further tick up in Swiss watch prices.
Matt-998 Matt-998
So if all of this is a failure - why have over 50 countries entered discussions with the Orange Man to bring down their national tariffs against the US ?

Including Taiwan that will remove all tariffs ......

1744008445053.webp
That may be true but China is targeting 34% retaliatory tariffs on the US while EU leaders are considering what countermeasures to apply. There’s a long way to go yet so I wouldn’t pop the Champagne (California sparking wine) just yet.
 
Archer
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Evitzee Evitzee
If that is the goal it might work, but if the goal is to use these very high tariffs to generate permanent income it will do real damage to the economy. Listening to the Prez I feel the latter. He's always liked tariffs as a permanent feature.
He clearly didn't pay attention when watching Ferris Bueller's Day Off...

 
vintage hab
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Matt-998 Matt-998
So if all of this is a failure - why have over 50 countries entered discussions with the Orange Man to bring down their national tariffs against the US ?

Including Taiwan that will remove all tariffs ......

1744008445053.webp
The point is that trade balance has nothing to do with “ripping America off”:
1. Madagascar is considered the poorest country in the world. We buy coffee, chocolate and vanilla from them. Why would you want to pay more for these products? There is almost nothing made in the US that a Malagasy can afford.
2. Most American shoe and clothing companies have their manufacturing in Vietnam. The average salary there is less than $5K per year. How many American made F-150s do you think they can buy?
3. And of course there are population differences. The trade deficit with Canada keeps getting brought up. But there are 10 times more Americans than Canadians. How could they possibly buy as much? On a per capita basis, the US actually has a trade surplus.
4. All these trade deficit numbers are based on the trading of goods. But the US went to a services economy decades ago and export a lot of services (business consulting, engineering, finance, cloud computing, etc.). The US actually has a trade surplus with many countries if you consider both goods AND services.
 
Dan S
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vintage hab vintage hab
3. And of course there are population differences. The trade deficit with Canada keeps getting brought up. But there are 10 times more Americans than Canadians. How could they possibly buy as much? On a per capita basis, the US actually has a trade surplus.
I agree with the other points, but I'm not sure about this one because production also depends on population. All things being equal, it's not crazy to think that trade (goods and services both) could be balanced between countries of similar economic status, regardless of population differences. I suspect that the main reason for the imbalance with Canada isn't population, but the natural resources that Canada has. However, I don't think it's a terribly important metric, and there are many valid reasons for imbalances, as you mentioned.
 
Archer
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Dan S Dan S
I agree with the other points, but I'm not sure about this one because production also depends on population. All things being equal, it's not crazy to think that trade (goods and services both) could be balanced between countries of similar economic status, regardless of population differences. I suspect that the main reason for the imbalance with Canada isn't population, but the natural resources that Canada has. However, I don't think it's a terribly important metric, and there are many valid reasons for imbalances, as you mentioned.
Yes, of course it's because we sell you a shit ton of raw materials, and you sell us finished goods for the most part.

Production only depends on population with similar goods.
 
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