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Hey you 'muricans ... get those Swiss watches pronto [tariffs and international trade]

ghce
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padders padders
Flip that on its head. Any US collector now has to pay 10-31% more for his buys out of his domestic market does he not?

Supply and demand, as there will be much less sales of new imported Swiss ( or other ) watches the value of the vintage market will outstrip that of the new as it's likely that new watches are those most often purchased so you may well see an upsurge in people who don't usually buy in the used or vintage market this pushing the used prices beyond what's been previously seen.

Now maybe the time to start downsizing your vintage or other watches!
 
Dsloan
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ghce ghce
Supply and demand, as there will be much less sales of new imported Swiss ( or other ) watches the value of the vintage market will outstrip that of the new as it's likely that new watches are those most often purchased so you may well see an upsurge in people who don't usually buy in the used or vintage market this pushing the used prices beyond what's been previously seen.
Wait, was I right all those years I told my wife my watch collection was really just the inflation hedge in our household asset allocation?
 
Dsloan
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Walrus Walrus
So, how bout them egg prices?
Hey, do you have a better plan for combating the totally real and not at all made up 61% tarif that the Swiss put on American imports?
 
Walrus
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Dsloan Dsloan
Hey, do you have a better plan for combating the totally real and not at all made up 61% tarif that the Swiss put on American imports?
I have some thoughts but I refuse to get political. I see the “evil orange one” and other such quotes I can’t be bothered. Four years and change ago we got hit with a round of covid, it was a big rebound and all the hospitals and rehabs we used to trade masks and tests etc with went into survival mode and we were left completely hanging. We had several clients get very ill, I got hit again and unfortunately two deaths. I got very mad of the dudes running the country at the time. I calmed down after the storm blew over and promised myself I would never waste my emotions on people in politics as I knew I went overboard, I was mad for like a month.

Sure some policy may impact you but when have we not gotten through? 4-8 years seems to go quick these days then some other idiot comes in rinse and repeat. Well 4-8 years unless your in senate or such then it’s lifetime. So my big plan is wait cause this will come to pass like everything else them we find something else to complain about. Think I’ll start a religion thread now really stir things up because the no politics rule is only enforced if it were to be in favor of or understand the reasons for tariffs. I’m not saying I do just making a point.
IMG_1693.webp
I’m just dropping this here to make a point. I dislike all politicians these days I just give to Rome what belongs to Rome.
 
texasmade
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Walrus Walrus
So, how bout them egg prices?
I'm still waiting for that cheap $1.50 gas that was promised on day 1.
 
Dan S
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It looks like I was wrong with my "effective immediately" comment, there may still be a few days to stock up. Just sayin' ...

And Japanese watches will be a bargain ... only 24%.
 
Walrus
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Dan S Dan S
It looks like I was wrong with my "effective immediately" comment, there may still be a few days to stock up. Just sayin' ...
Wait, all that for nothing, damn what a bummer.
 
pdxleaf
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It's not just the tariffs that will increase costs for 'muricans, it's also the USD conversion rate, which is dropping from a high. The goal is to drop it further.

Hard to imagine that all this plus a declining stock market and declining tourism will have no impact on luxury goods purchased in the USA. I think the US is the biggest Porsche market too. Tightening markets have a way of spiraling and taking on a life of their own.

I see good things ahead for the vintage Hamilton market. 😁
 
8100_RPM
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You know the grey market dealers are happy as this will prop up the prices for their existing inventory.

Now if I finally get the call from my Rolex Boutique for a Batgirl, do I buy it if the price has gone up 20% (assuming Rolex eats part of the tariff)? I probably would as it is still cheaper than the grey market. Would I buy a fluted Datejust on a jubilee at the increased price? I would probably pass on it.
 
ErichPryde
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pdxleaf pdxleaf
It's not just the tariffs that will increase costs for 'muricans, it's also the USD conversion rate, which is dropping from a high. The goal is to drop it further.

Hard to imagine that all this plus a declining stock market and declining tourism will have no impact on luxury goods purchased in the USA. I think the US is the biggest Porsche market too. Tightening markets have a way of spiraling and taking on a life of their own.

I see good things ahead for the vintage Hamilton market. 😁

The impact to National and State parks is honestly what makes me the saddest.
 
Dan S
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pdxleaf pdxleaf
I see good things ahead for the vintage Hamilton market. 😁
True, we can always just choose to buy American watches. 🤪
 
Walrus
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pdxleaf pdxleaf
It's not just the tariffs that will increase costs for 'muricans, it's also the USD conversion rate, which is dropping from a high. The goal is to drop it further.

Hard to imagine that all this plus a declining stock market and declining tourism will have no impact on luxury goods purchased in the USA. I think the US is the biggest Porsche market too. Tightening markets have a way of spiraling and taking on a life of their own.

I see good things ahead for the vintage Hamilton market. 😁
Ya I looked futures down 1,000 now on fear of the news tomorrow. We are coming off a 15 year bullrun so I’m not surprised to see downturn but the market hates uncertainty. Golds recent large swing seems more based on dollar devaluation. Tomorrow should be good for the VIX and the shorts but it’s confusing what would one choose to do? Sit tight, exit, go on a buying spree. I was reading this discussion I just copied a bit of it as it shows how easy it is to miss things. Just found it interesting.


One of the strangest things about the stock market is how unevenly returns are distributed. The long-term trend might look steady on a chart, but almost all the actual gains happen in short, unpredictable bursts. Miss those bursts, and you miss everything.


Based on a study by JP Morgan, if you had simply stayed invested in the S&P500 from 2003 to 2022, a $10,000 sum would have grown to around $65,000. But if you missed just the 10 best days over that 20-year period, your return would have dropped by more than half. Miss 20 of the best days, and you'd end up with just $18,000. Miss 40 and you'd have less than you started with. All your gains came in just 40 out of 5000+ trading days!


These numbers are extreme, but they're not outliers


—they repeat across every time period you look at.


What makes it harder is that the biggest up days usually come when things feel the worst. March 24, 2020, when COVID panic was at its peak, the market jumped 9.4% in one day. Dec 26 2018, following a significant downturn, the S&P500 posted a then-record increase of ~5%, one of the highest single day gain in the decade.


It's emotionally uncomfortable to keep your money in the market when everything feels uncertain, pessimistic, and scary. But if you wait for clarity usually miss the recovery. And once the market changes it's mood, it starts moving up very fast. i doesn't give you time to think or respond.
 
Dan S
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Walrus Walrus
Ya I looked futures down 1,000 now on fear of the news tomorrow. We are coming off a 15 year bullrun so I’m not surprised to see downturn but the market hates uncertainty. Golds recent large swing seems more based on dollar devaluation. Tomorrow should be good for the VIX and the shorts but it’s confusing what would one choose to do? Sit tight, exit, go on a buying spree...
No watch content? 🙁
 
ErichPryde
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Based on a study by JP Morgan, if you had simply stayed invested in the S&P500 from 2003 to 2022, a $10,000 sum would have grown to around $65,000. But if you missed just the 10 best days over that 20-year period, your return would have dropped by more than half. Miss 20 of the best days, and you'd end up with just $18,000. Miss 40 and you'd have less than you started with. All your gains came in just 40 out of 5000+ trading days!
@Walrus

These studies/charts are misleading, and to some degree, intentionally so. If you miss the 10 best and 10 worst days, you actually come out ahead. That's very difficult to do obviously, but the best days and the worst days often occur close together when volatility is higher.

I'll see if I can find a chart showing this later so you don't have to take my word for it.

As far as the VIX goes... it's just calculating and projecting volatility. At around 16, it's estimating approximately an average minimum nominal 1% SPY move . It's not an investible index (although it has investible derivitives) and is using a complex calculation to arrive at estimated volatility.
Edited:
 
Walrus
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ErichPryde ErichPryde
@Walrus

These studies/charts are misleading, and to some degree, intentionally so. If you miss the 10 best and 10 worst days, you actually come out ahead. That's very difficult to do obviously, but the best days and the worst days often occur close together when volatility is higher.

I'll see if I can find a chart showing this later so you don't have to take my word for it.
No don’t worry about it that was just someone talking on an investment forum. It was just one persons opinion I didn’t take it as gospel bottom line is timing things is very difficult even when it looks like total crap may not be the best move to exit, but then again it could for some. Don’t worry going deeper it wasn’t my info just thinking of various things
 
ErichPryde
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Walrus Walrus
No don’t worry about it that was just someone talking on an investment forum. It was just one persons opinion I didn’t take it as gospel bottom line is timing things is very difficult even when it looks like total crap may not be the best move to exit, but then again it could for some. Don’t worry going deeper it wasn’t my info just thinking of various things

No worries. Those charts are accurate as far as they go, and selling the "bottom" of an index like SPY or Q is pretty much always a bad idea. Which is exactly why reversals can happen quickly and well before the news flow shifts positive.
 
texasmade
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pdxleaf pdxleaf
It's not just the tariffs that will increase costs for 'muricans, it's also the USD conversion rate, which is dropping from a high. The goal is to drop it further.

Hard to imagine that all this plus a declining stock market and declining tourism will have no impact on luxury goods purchased in the USA. I think the US is the biggest Porsche market too. Tightening markets have a way of spiraling and taking on a life of their own.

I see good things ahead for the vintage Hamilton market. 😁
I’m on rennlist and it’s a meltdown over there. I have a 992.2 base allocation that was approved last week the day Trump announced his auto tariffs. Right now I’m totally fvcked on my Porsche order.
 
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