I think condition and popularity are soooo much more important than rarity when it comes to value - and popularity can be decided by lots of simple factors - for example, ladies don't often collect vintage watches, so they are usually significantly cheaper. Size is important - anything less than 36mm is at an immediate disadvantage in this world of plate sized wrist timepieces. Gold content sets a minimum value, but stainless steel maybe more sought after. There are watches that are already popular and a good condition pie pan, early speedmaster or 300 diver is not going to lose you money, but to make the most you probably need to guess whats jumping next. I'm not sure rarity plays much of a factor most of the time.
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