Current state of the car market (US)

Walrus · Apr 16, 2022

dsio
There are definitely going to be some automakers that get killed off in this transition, the F150 Lightning electric will be a really key model this year, if its great, and outdrags all the V8 F150s it’ll set Ford up quite well, if it has problems or doesn’t live up to expectation, Ford may not get another bite at that cherry. The Chevy Silverado EV is due in 2024, which is a bit late compared to the F150, if Ford succeeds that could really set them back in the market by the time they arrive. I’m not a big fan of either, especially GM as every GM car we’ve had in Australia has been a bit of a shoddy trash can, the Fords were better but not in interior quality or tech, still very outdated and heavy.

Zee Germans are clearly moving fast and producing some really good EVs already like the Taycan, i4 and E-Tron line, the Koreans are doing some really good things at the economy end of the market, and the Chinese have effectively decided to give up trying to compete in ICE and fight for their place at the table in the EV space, some amazing EVs already available out of China now and the quality is very high.

The Japanese makers might actually be the ones that get most wrong footed by this transition, their plans are a lot more conservative than many of their peers and they already feel like they’re falling behind the Korean carmakers even now in the economy segment.

Ya well we went through the failure of the major US automakers once in the US already and that just ain’t allowed. Too many industries tied to them. So I don’t know how this is all going to be reconciled. I’ve had some decent GM vehicles but I’m not about to argue car manufacturers as I don’t have my heart in any particular auto as long as they get me around without too many problems I’m good. I am a little nervous as I have a US made car that just hit 85k thousand miles and this far all I’ve had to do is brakes and oil changes and I’m patiently waiting for something major to go wrong I would hate to have to buy an auto at this time. I’ve said before if it was possible I’d really like to get a horse as my main form of transportation as I’d like more of a bond with my mode of transportation. Like all other things I’ll be waiting see how this plays out and hope for the best.

Walrus · Apr 16, 2022

JwRosenthal
This is my issue too- the range and ability in less than ideal conditions. Having relied on my vehicle in conditions that were 100’s of miles off the grid, and reliant on small town auto shops when things went wrong (had a Toyota Landcruiser and Jeep Cherokee which anyone could work on in their backyard), it could be a while before I would trust something this tech dependent.

I’m not educated enough about EV to answer my own question, but has there been talk about a universal cell system that could be swapped out at any service station? Or you could carry multiple batteries instead of charging (like pumping gas), you just go in and swap your spent battery for a fresh one and back on the road- like you do with propane tanks.

It appears the weight of an electric battery which varies from maker to maker are s minimum of 1,000 pounds. Nio, the Chinese electric car maker has some kind of swap out deal going on but it’s done with hoists and service stations. I was speaking with someone in China about but as usual I only got about 40% of the conversation cause my Chinese is horrible. I guess it’s safe to say pure electric cars are still “new tech” so who nows in the years to come maybe what your speaking of will be possible. I wonder if ford and Gm would be further along in the game if they didn’t spend so much time and resources fighting Tesla. If a Tesla catches fire it’s front page news, I usually pass at least one burning Gm or ford every couple weeks in my travels.

pdxleaf · Apr 16, 2022

JwRosenthal
This is my issue too- the range and ability in less than ideal conditions. Having relied on my vehicle in conditions that were 100’s of miles off the grid, and reliant on small town auto shops when things went wrong (had a Toyota Landcruiser and Jeep Cherokee which anyone could work on in their backyard), it could be a while before I would trust something this tech dependent.

I’m not educated enough about EV to answer my own question, but has there been talk about a universal cell system that could be swapped out at any service station? Or you could carry multiple batteries instead of charging (like pumping gas), you just go in and swap your spent battery for a fresh one and back on the road- like you do with propane tanks.

I have some experience but am not steeped in EVs. Our family has about 60 - 70k of EV driving, nearly all local since 2011.

There was talk early on about pulling into a fueling station and swapping the batteries. Bottom line was that it was cost prohibitive for a singke manufacturer to build the infrastructure. the companies were having a hard enough time getting a standard plug in type to be adopted. Nissan worked hard to get out the door first and a battery swap would have been too much to bite off. (Also, they are high voltage and need to be handled by trained workers, not suitable for an owner to do thecswap.)

What we might see sooner will be non-wire recharging, something like a wireless phone charger, whereby the vehicle drives over a pad. But while these might be technical feasible, they aren't getting to market soon. It's always been a chicken and egg thing. We need lots of cars to justify building infrastructure, but we need infrastructure before people will buy cars. What we have is now is mostly people charging at home woth some scattered long distance routes.

As an aside, there was talk about what to do with old batteries. Some older Leafs have had new longer distance batteries installed. The car is essentially a shell that will last a very long time. The old batteries that no longer service cars are atill good for storing energy for homes or electrical substations. They were talking about this from day one.

Another interesting feature is that the EV can be used to store and tap electricity for homes. This is done in Japan but not in the states. The idea is that during an outage or during peak loads, EVs can be a souce of distributed generation. It's an interesting idea.

EVs may not work for everyone but everyone should consider them. They don't work well for renters in apartments or rural people who drive more than 100 miles or so( unless they can afford a Tesla, for example.) But EVs work for a large segment of the population.

As for your need for 100s of miles off grid, that's why I bought a rav4prime. I have driven 2300 miles on 22 gallons, mostly because I took two trips from Portland to Seattle. It's awesome. We only tap into gas when we exceed the 42 to 50 mile range. Even then, the hybrid gives us great mileage.

Hopefully EVs with longer range will get cheaper. Until then, the prime is great. It's also fast with 300 hp and instant torque. Trouble is, supply. If I didn’t have a friends and family connection I would not have been able to get one. I read that it is easier to get one in Connecticut than on the West coast. Not sure.

EVs aren't a panacea but neither are they some evil plot to steal people's freedom and force them to eat kale and tofu. Six dollar a gallon gas has done more for EV adoption than anything else. Even climate change deniers hate paying 6 bucks a gallon. They are also fun to drive. just need to get cheaper.

Sorry for the epistle. As anything, there's a lot more to them than can be quickly unpacked.

dsio · Apr 16, 2022

Yea it really shouldn’t even be a left wing right wing thing, as there are a lot of common ground benefits like energy independence and a reduction in exposure to oil prices. I’d personally much rather Australia start putting our crazy amount of uranium to use domestically to meet our energy needs including EV energy for the 87% of us clustered around major cities. We can still get some oil in to power @STANDY ’s Land Cruiser up in the NT but it means we’re no longer financially burdened by bad decisions made by the least politically stable countries on earth.

From an emissions standpoint reducing the number of tankers inefficiently burning bunker fuel just to bring us our fuel for cars can’t hurt either given how insanely dirty they are even compared to massive fleets or efficient petrol cars.

Having that ability to stabilise power grids using your vehicles can’t hurt either especially in places like Texas that have been suffering in recent years.

Now that said, actually getting Australians to warm up to nuclear in our geologically stable country with an insane supply of fuel is another battle given all the NIMBYs but I feel it’ll be addressed at some point, even if it means arresting a bunch or vegan protestors.

pdxleaf · Apr 17, 2022

dsio
Yea it really shouldn’t even be a left wing right wing thing, as there are a lot of common ground benefits like energy independence and a reduction in exposure to oil prices. I’d personally much rather Australia start putting our crazy amount of uranium to use domestically to meet our energy needs including EV energy for the 87% of us clustered around major cities. We can still get some oil in to power @STANDY ’s Land Cruiser up in the NT but it means we’re no longer financially burdened by bad decisions made by the least politically stable countries on earth.

From an emissions standpoint reducing the number of tankers inefficiently burning bunker fuel just to bring us our fuel for cars can’t hurt either given how insanely dirty they are even compared to massive fleets or efficient petrol cars.

Having that ability to stabilise power grids using your vehicles can’t hurt either especially in places like Texas that have been suffering in recent years.

Now that said, actually getting Australians to warm up to nuclear in our geologically stable country with an insane supply of fuel is another battle given all the NIMBYs but I feel it’ll be addressed at some point, even if it means arresting a bunch or vegan protestors.

Germany too. No nukes but will burn coal.

States are fearful of nukes but perhaps less so.

Personally, i've come around to thinking we have to go with nuclear to get carbon under control. (Permafrost is probably already too far gone though.)

But aside from that, like you said, it's not one thing but all of it combined. More wind, more solar, even tidal generators. And I hate to say it but small nuclear too.

It's got to be tough to be an auto executive right now.

STANDY · Apr 17, 2022

Good point @dsio, not as if we don’t have the most powerful uranium in the world in the NT that gets shipped to nuclear power plants all around the world 😗

Ranger mine has just closed near Darwin but there is plenty of other sources nearby…

ConElPueblo · Apr 17, 2022

I would love to hear how 16-20 year olds reading this thread would think of the discussion.

dsio · Apr 17, 2022

STANDY
Good point @dsio, not as if we don’t have the most powerful uranium in the world in the NT that gets shipped to nuclear power plants all around the world 😗

Ranger mine has just closed near Darwin but there is plenty of other sources nearby…

Not only that, but we’ve also got the largest reserves of bauxite in the world and several large mines operating in northern QLD and the NT. Rather than inefficiently exporting coal and ore to overseas countries we could greatly expand our aluminium production here with nuclear and solar in the North powering it cleanly. Aluminium is so energy intensive to produce that it’s effectively an efficient means of exporting energy overseas and when we sell it we’re really selling the coal that went into making it, not the raw bauxite.

It bothers me a great deal how the natural resources of Australia are squandered by bad policy and fear on both sides of government when clean energy, jobs, and substantial economy growth is right there in the north waiting.

STANDY · Apr 17, 2022

It’s cheaper to buy Australian NT gas in Japan than gas in Australia 🤨

Ted1858 · Apr 17, 2022

There have been many points made on required investment in charging infrastructure (stations), but I don’t see much discussion on power generation and grid infrastructure investment. I am a proponent of EVs here in the US because we have insane natural gas reserves…but until there are many many trillions of dollars invested into power Gen and grid, serious EV adoption is a long way off in this country.

And please don’t mention windmills and solar farms, they stink for base load power. We need more nuclear and natural gas plants.

bradurani · Apr 17, 2022

You poor confused souls, I feel for you.

Tesla orders are only taking about 3 months. They sell direct so it's no haggle, fixed price with no gouging. A cool thing about Teslas.... they're electric. You plug them in in your garage and you can get a 315 mile charge (for the Model 3 long range) for about $8 of electricity, compared with about $60 of gas for an internal combustion car. Also, they're the best car ever made:
- They're the fastest (in acceleration in their respective price brackets)
- They're the safest (both in frame design and collision avoidance software)
- They're the cheapest to fuel (see above)
- They're the cheapest to maintain (you never service the engine, only tires and brakes)
- They're the greenest (literally saving the world from civilization ending sea level rises)
- They drive themselves (Ok, this one still needs a lot of work, but it's getting better)
- They're an all around pleasure to drive in a way no gas car has ever come close, with perfect throttle response, flat cornering and a smooth refined driving experience that makes your German luxury car feel like a clunky PoS
- They're made in America (Americans care about this)

But go ahead and continue to downplay them. I get quite a kick when the light turns green and I floor it, going from 0-60 in 3.1 seconds and leave your loud noisy clunker in the dust. It's fun driving a $66,000 car knowing that the only thing on the road that can come close to it in a drag race is a $250,000 Lamborghini.

Walrus · Apr 17, 2022

bradurani
You poor confused souls, I feel for you.

Tesla orders are only taking about 3 months. They sell direct so it's no haggle, fixed price with no gouging. A cool thing about Teslas.... they're electric. You plug them in in your garage and you can get a 315 mile charge (for the Model 3 long range) for about $8 of electricity, compared with about $60 of gas for an internal combustion car. Also, they're the best car ever made:
- They're the fastest (in acceleration in their respective price brackets)
- They're the safest (both in frame design and collision avoidance software)
- They're the cheapest to fuel (see above)
- They're the cheapest to maintain (you never service the engine, only tires and brakes)
- They're the greenest (literally saving the world from civilization ending sea level rises)
- They drive themselves (Ok, this one still needs a lot of work, but it's getting better)
- They're an all around pleasure to drive in a way no gas car has ever come close, with perfect throttle response, flat cornering and a smooth refined driving experience that makes your German luxury car feel like a clunky PoS
- They're made in America (Americans care about this)

But go ahead and continue to downplay them. I get quite a kick when the light turns green and I floor it, going from 0-60 in 3.1 seconds and leave your loud noisy clunker in the dust. It's fun driving a $66,000 car knowing that the only thing on the road that can come close to it in a drag race is a $250,000 Lamborghini.

Well actually I brought up Tesla a while back in the thread. I don’t own one but have been for a ride in a plaid it completely blew my mind. I’ve been big on Tesla since it stock was around 70 pre-split. But like Tesla and several German models the price tag keeps many out of that realm. I’m sure Tesla can at some point produce an electric car fit for the masses but I don’t think at this point they need to or it makes sense for them. So it’s nothing against Tesla, I’m a semi musk fanboy. I am also seeing them much more in my area lately. But at that price tag it’s kinda strange the secretary of transportation would say the answer is just for everyone to but an electric car. I realize there are cheaper options but we aren’t at the point where it’s an easy choice for everyone.
Can I ask you since you are obviously a Tesla owner. Now that you have one would you ever go back to an ICE vehicle? I pose that question to most Tesla owners and it seems 90% of the time it’s a definite no.

Evose · Apr 17, 2022

Tesla vehicles are nice, I enjoyed the S P100D I had for a short time. The only issues are, it's horrible in the cold — your 300 miles are more like 150. The 0-60 is fantastic, but the novelty wears off when you realize you're always speeding. Can get expensive very quick. Your insurance is roughly $600-700 higher annually, despite being in my 30s with a clean record. A good friend is an ex-Tesla employee that now works for Rivian. One of the reasons he left: the cars are cheaply assembled, have a myriad of relatively expensive issues, and their service/parts leaves much to be desired.

I always saw EV as an A to B car. A great commuter car with advanced industry technology. I can't match your 0-60 in my S2000, but I'll enjoy trying 😉

gatorcpa · Apr 17, 2022

bradurani
But go ahead and continue to downplay them. I get quite a kick when the light turns green and I floor it, going from 0-60 in 3.1 seconds and leave your loud noisy clunker in the dust. It's fun driving a $66,000 car knowing that the only thing on the road that can come close to it in a drag race is a $250,000 Lamborghini.

I’m very happy for you that an electric car fits your lifestyle. I wish it did for mine.

My view of the future is that there will be less ICE cars and more electric cars coming online each year. However, until everyone has access to quick, on demand charging on a nationwide basis (which means every gas station), there will always be some market for ICE cars in the US, especially in rural areas.

I’m still quite concerned about all the particularly nasty heavy metal pollutants that will be released when it is time to start recycling these batteries.

Nothing is perfect. Never will be.
gatorcpa

bombaywalla · Apr 17, 2022

JwRosenthal
HEY! Watch it!

beautiful E34 M5!! 👍👍
I should have bought an E34 525i when i had the chance.... ::facepalm1::

Vercingetorix · Apr 17, 2022

Some fans of electric cars here sound like they also own Rolex i.e. they own one and it is the best at everything. Nothing is further from the truth and I own an electric car. I do not own a Rolex thank god.

Dan S · Apr 17, 2022

Vercingetorix
Some fans of electric cars here sound like they also own Rolex i.e. they own one and it is the best at everything.

I was thinking the same thing. One post in particular was totally tone-deaf to the thread.

dsio · Apr 17, 2022

Also, they're the best car ever made:
- They're the fastest (in acceleration in their respective price brackets)
That’s a big qualification you put in the end there, because in braking, cornering, track performance, they’re turds.
- They're the safest (both in frame design and collision avoidance software)
Safety has come a long way across the market
- They're the cheapest to fuel (see above)
Not the biggest selling point to me
- They're the cheapest to maintain (you never service the engine, only tires and brakes)
Not entirely true when you consider an ownership spanning decades which I tend to
- They're the greenest (literally saving the world from civilization ending sea level rises)
They’re an improvement, sure
- They drive themselves (Ok, this one still needs a lot of work, but it's getting better)
Not really
- They're an all around pleasure to drive in a way no gas car has ever come close, with perfect throttle response, flat cornering and a smooth refined driving experience that makes your German luxury car feel like a clunky PoS
They’re extremely clunky, the interior feels like a bin liner, the quality is pathetic, the cornering is not in any way flat or pleasant, the driving experience is extremely mediocre
- They're made in America (Americans care about this)
Nationalism aside, American made cars have a reputation for Lada level build quality and trash can interiors in the rest of the world

But go ahead and continue to downplay them. I get quite a kick when the light turns green and I floor it, going from 0-60 in 3.1 seconds and leave your loud noisy clunker in the dust. It's fun driving a $66,000 car knowing that the only thing on the road that can come close to it in a drag race is a $250,000 Lamborghini.

I’d never by a Tesla because they’re junk, a Taycan… sure. One of the biggest hinderances to EV acceptance is Teslaboos sounding like 19 year old girls that just discovered Kabbalah on Instagram spouting bullshit and nonsense. Thankfully as manufacturers that are far better at building cars continue to come into the market segment Tesla will become less and less relevant over time.

*edit* I am grateful the post didn’t contain the phrase “Daddy Elon” though, that one really brings out the yikes

JwRosenthal · Apr 17, 2022

dsio · Apr 17, 2022

JwRosenthal

You know the irony is hybrids like the Prius and Camry hybrid were really good but became political and turned off so many people because of that whole Hollywood virtue signalling owner stigma.

Sad, stupid situation. But I made fun of mates for driving them because of that association too.

Current state of the car market (US)

Walrus

Walrus

pdxleaf

dsio

pdxleaf

STANDY

ConElPueblo

dsio

STANDY

Ted1858

bradurani

Walrus

Evose

gatorcpa

bombaywalla

Vercingetorix

Dan S

dsio

JwRosenthal

dsio

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