as Above what do we think the current market instability will have on watch prices......up, as people invest in them, or down as people who have lost money sell off luxury items???

 

If the market is simply seeing a return of a little volatility I doubt there will be much of an impact on the watch ‘market’. If it turns into a longer term and more severe down-trend then some additional supply may appear driving prices down a little.

For the most part I assume people who buy and sell a lot of high end watches do not live ‘paycheck to paycheck’ and so are a little insulated from market swings.

 

Wow..another vintage watch price crash thread.

 

Might make higher priced watches slower to shift, but I don't expect it to impact prices much if atall.

 

I would argue all important decisions are made on an emotion......Just be satisfied that emotion is rational, & soundly judged

A strong gut feeling.....is just an emotion in itself

 

Actually, most of those "facts" are dead wrong within the context of markets over the past 10 years. In other words, the two "dips" in recent days are anything but "normal", given context.

 

I don't recall prices of Speedmasters being impacted in 2008 during the worst financial crisis since 1929. In fact, I think prices continued to move upward at a strong pace. In my experience, the people buying vintage watches are not living paycheck to paycheck, nor do they have their financial futures pinned entirely on the stock market. * A generalization based on my own experience.

 

Not sure about Speedmasters, but lots of high end watches had very soft and corrected prices during the 2008 and onward recession.

 

Interesting. I don't pay much attention to other than Speedmasters, pocket watches, and military watches. I can state with certainty that the military watches from WWII and the vintage Speedmasters have made much stronger gains in the market from 2008 forward than they did in the decade leading up to that crash. And during the years post crash (2008-2013) when I was still paying attention, cal 321 Speedmasters made strong gains. Now, the LE watches were stagnant during that time, to a great extent, but again, not vintage. I don't follow them, but it appears to me that Constellations have never slowed in the post crash market, either. I am too ignorant with regard to pretty much everything else to have an opinion.

 

I simply dont care......

 

I just remembered, I need to stop by every thread on this forum that means nothing to me and let them all know I don't care about their topics. This may take awhile.

 

Would vintage pieces be affected more than modern models, or vice versa?

 

Established vintage models will, as a group, perform far better than modern/contemporary models.

 

Good evening @vintagestuff. I love to eaves drop and absorb this kind of stuff that you collectors 'bat around'. All part of my horological education. I am interested in your opinion, as you are a collector or enthusiast of vintage Omega Speedmasters. If you have the time any input would appreciated.

Here is my situation: I do tend to live from pay cheque to pay cheque. I work part-time, so I'm not a wealthy bloke. I only have 5 watches. 4 of them are of no particular interest at all, but 1 of them is my Dad's old, brown dial, pre-moon, Omega Speedmaster Professional,105.012-65. (I'm forever posting pictures of the 'fakkin' thing so I will spare you that and focus purely on financial value.)

A) The watch has been personally examined by Simon Freese and sympathetically serviced by Swiss Time Services.

B) The current bracelet is an, incorrect, 1171/633, service bracelet that my Dad had fitted in the early 1970's. Not worth much but special to me.

C) The cleaned but unpolished double step,105.012-65 HF case has a naturally worn 'sea monster' & writing, but sharp case bevels and lug facets.

D) The original 321 movement is in the correct range for the reference. DON bezel is in good clean condition, original crystal has been retained and polished, original pushers & tubes and sub dial hands are also all original. In March 2017 the movement was completely dismantled, cleaned and reassembled by the expert vintage technicians at STS UK. It is still under guarantee.

E) The hour/minute and chrono hands are vintage correct (aged to match dial & lume) service parts fitted by Swiss Time Services UK during the 2017 service.
F)Original stepped AML dial has faded to an even, dark brown with visible concentric rings on the sub dials.

G) The crown is an original 1960's correct replacement sourced, and fitted, by Swiss Time Services UK during the 2017 service.

So there is my watch. My question is; Given the wide variation of sale prices for (what appears to be) 'the same watch', how does an owner go about placing a valuation on a vintage Speedmaster?

I've studied Speedmaster101: Price for this reference watch head is currently stated as $9200 US.
Chrono24 : seems to have them ranging from $10,713 US up to $19,558 US.
Omega Forums private sales: Prices seem to be lower than Speedmaster101 (until someone 'interesting' sells an interesting watch.)

Additional interesting features of my watch:
A) It has an original clean, evenly coloured, dark brown dial.
B) Along with the extract of archives I have, 1st hand, photographic proof, through the decades, that it is a family watch.

Any clues to it's current valuation, predicting it's future value in 2019 or the effects of the financial situation on this particular reference would be appreciated.

 

Bloke,
I've been re learning some of the pricing since I last kept a close eye on the market, and there seem to be quite a few members here who have become dedicated students of vintage Speedmasters in the last several years. Honestly, with the books, an abundance of focus on the details of dials, hands, cases (I think the polishing issue is over-emphasized, but to each his own.) there are probably members here who may not own a vintage Speedmaster or who own one such as yourself who have a very good idea of current market values from their close study. Checking sold items here and on ebay is a great source, while asking prices on any site is not a great source. I have looked at Speedmaster101 a few times in the last two weeks and am very impressed with much of the information he provides. I think he is conservative with the pricing on cal 321 Speedmasters, though, and from his description of "collector" watches, I feel watches in that condition, which are VERY rarely seen, should be moved to another, elevated price category, and his current prices for "collector" might be re named "excellent," while retaining the same prices he now uses for "collector." I hope that isn't confusing. Basically, I'm suggesting his current top prices be named excellent and collector grade (by his definition) be 25 to 100 percent higher given their extreme rarity. The recent auction of the 2915-1 is a very good example. On his chart, it is worth 135k, while the auction ended at 275k inclusive. This is not a criticism of the site. It is very difficult to stay atop these prices, especially on that watch. I want to be clear that the above is my opinion with regard to pricing. It is not meant to be critical. The site is an excellent resource, and the owner is doing his best to keep up with a wild market.

Now, as supply of other references dries up, their prices has also skyrocketed. A 2998 that sold for 3k ten years ago might fetch 50k or more now (usd). There is no supply of excellent grade watches. The same seems to be happening to 105.003 now. Attractive examples do turn up, but it's becoming a rare occurrence compared to a few years ago. Your watch, 105.012 is next in line. Production of these and all that followed during the space race was high, so there are bound to be more nice examples, and it will take more time for them to become rare. It will happen, and I should think an excellent 105.012 such as the one you seem to own (though I haven't seen photos) with nice patina on the markers and hands and overall nice case, etc will begin reaching the 20k mark in another year or two. The 145.012 will likely be a couple of years behind due to the numbers of those produced, too. Without seeing yours up close, going by the description, it sounds like a 10k to 15k usd watch. The brown dial and patina are wildcards. The shade of brown will matter, and the aesthetic of the watch as a whole will make all the difference above 10k. With that stated, if it was your father's I hope you keep it. At worst, the price is going to climb steeply in the next few years.

 

@nonuffinkbloke I also pretty much live paycheque to paycheque but I would bet good money that you will never sell your dad's Speedmaster!

PS love your avatar. Derek and Clive anyone?

 

If only that were the case @GordonL and if only I were able to @vintagestuff

Life has it's ups and downs and for me 2017 was a very difficult year. I have not shared this with the forum but I do intend to put a helpful thread together to talk about urological cancer in men. I won't go into it now (as I don't want to put a downer on the conversation )but in the last 18 months I have had an, early stage, cancer diagnosis, it was treated before it could spread and I am now completely cancer free. Fortunately for me, they caught it in a very early stage! I am a very lucky bloke!

The reason I am writing this is that it has altered my view of possessions, including those of great significance. Even "vintage stuff" is "stuff" and I know my Dad would have wanted me to use any of the resources, that he left, to enhance my everyday life.

The fact is that my early diagnosis was due to me spending £150 on a private medical consultation with a specialist early last year. I very nearly didn't make the appointment due to finance. That could have been very costly. To sit on an item worth thousands of dollars while worrying about spending two hundred dollars to see a cancer specialist, (when you need to) is a very 'fakked up' view of "stuff". I have recently got married and am planning to meet my in-laws 12,000 feet up in the fakkin Andes in Peru. last year when I was waiting for biopsy results I had no idea, that at, age 60, life would become so interesting. It could have all gone wrong, but I didn't fakk about. I got the right help, and got it sorted!
Anyway enough of this 'poyniant bollocks'..... HERE ENDETH THE FIRST LESSON OF NONUFFINKBLOKE.

In short chaps it goes like this:
My Dad's watch spent from 1971 to 2003 on it's 1171/633 bracelet. This is as important to me as the watch head and I intend to keep and wear it (with a less expensive Speedmaster head) until I pop my clogs. (The watch also had a service crown and a set of service hands from the early 1970's. These I will also retain)

My brown dial, Omega Speedmaster Professional 105.012-65 head will be offered for sale at some point. I will then purchase a later model that I can wear, everyday on Dad's bracelet, (I work on a beach and I won't have to worry about getting wet or sand blasted in the wind).

Following the assessment and recommendations made by Simon Freese, Swiss Time Services UK did an amazing job on the service. The watch has the original pushers, a vintage 1960's Crown, is in fantastic condition and looks the 'rather splendid' if I say so myself. (Nice work STS UK)



So..........at present my 105.012 Speedmaster must not get wet and is only worn on special occasions. That is no life for such a beautiful watch.
maybe someone will marry it up with a gorgeous flat link 1506/16 bracelet and give it a new life.
It isn't for sale at the moment, but when the time comes, It will be offered on this forum and I know my Dad (and Mum) would approve.

Dad taking a well earned break in Cornwall, England sometime in the early 1970's. (Dial is still black)


Cheers for the fantastic information @vintagestuff ! William's website is a fantastic resource and you are quite correct with regard to the difficulty in keeping it constantly updated.
Much appreciated!

 

Of course you should do what is best for you. I think some of us who maybe have nothing like that from our fathers would love to have the opportunity, but your logic is sound, and you're right about vintage stuff, of course. It's just more stuff. You'll have no trouble finding a buyer when you're ready. In fact, I expect you'll be getting more than one PM from this post. Think carefully about the asking price, as I know you will. People who love the browns dials will be excited. Even as colorblind as I am, I can see that on is very brown. Good luck with it and all the rest.

Pop your clogs? Is this anything like kicking the bucket?

 

With respect to Bloke and others, after reading the forums (and the Rolex forum) I am rethinking my ideas about handing down nice watches to my son. The idea was to give him something nice he will want to wear and remember the times we spent together by. Instead the high value seems to lead to sale for legitimate reasons of life, and I imagine a really soul wrenching decision and guilt. Instead of inflicting that, I may get a nice microbrand to leave him, along with a certificate of deposit.