Are the current 'high' prices temporary?

Larry S · Oct 1, 2019

I have an irritating friend who i had not seen for quite a while. At a recent reunion, he was clucking disapprovingly about my watch hobby. “ I have an old watch. It’s not worth anything.” He said brandishing his Apple Watch. Imagine his shock when I showed him what his old Autavia panda might be worth.

Again and again ... iMO if you are in this as an investment, you are a fool. If you love watches and are not playing with the rent money you are ok. You might get lucky, you might loose your ass.

For me the prices have risen to such an extent that I’m out of mad money.

Davidt · Oct 1, 2019

Speedmasters have increased significantly in recent years. This has nothing to do with the 50th anniversary but is a general upward trend in collectibles, cars, art, stainless steel blue chip vintage sports watches etc.

Any decrease in prices in the near future will be linked to a decline in the world economy and an end to cheap money and not the passing of the 50th anniversary of the moon landing imo.

nonuffinkbloke · Oct 1, 2019

IanES
If I do part with my watch I'll PX through a proper dealer - sure I'll get less........

Hello Ian.

Over the past 3 years, I've experimented a little with strolling into "proper dealers" in the South of England.😲

I was unpleasantly suprised by how little they were prepared to offer, and how willing one or two were to try to mislead me regarding my own watch.

Fortunately the chaps on this forum had already educated me enough to enable me to see through the "proper dealers" 'old bollocks'.

Read up on Speedmaster101, stick around on here and at some point you can sell or trade your watch here. I have already experienced how the 'open' and 'up front' nature of this forum can provide a level of protection.

Give it a go mate.👍

SportChief · Oct 1, 2019

Personally, I think it depends on what area of watch collecting you are in.

From my limited perspective, the areas of vintage watch collecting that are "booming" are: 1. stainless steel, 2. Chronos and diver (sports or tool watches in general), 3. certain middle-high range Swiss makes like Rolex, Omega etc., and 4. large 37mm + vintage pieces. Quality is always important (unpolished case, original and clean dial, original movement etc.). These are the watches that younger (i.e. millennial) collectors seems to be interested in. Although, at 30, I'm not really attracted to those sports watches.

Before getting interested in Longines and Omega (clearly at the wrong time), I was a big, and still am, Hamilton collector. My primary focus was gold-filled, tank, tonneau, and cushion-shaped watches from the 1920s to the early 1950s. Those watches were really popular in the 80s and 90s, but have fallen out of popularity (and value) since then. Another area that was huge in watch collecting from the 80s to the early 2000s was American-made, high-grade pocket watches, specifically railroad grade watches from Ball, Hamilton, Illinois, Elgin, Waltham etc. Those watches were more expensive 20 years ago than they are today. It's actually a pretty good time to buy a high-grade pocket watch for a good price.

MSNWatch · Oct 1, 2019

SportChief
Personally, I think it depends on what area of watch collecting you are in.

From my limited perspective, the areas of vintage watch collecting that are "booming" are: 1. stainless steel, 2. Chronos and diver (sports or tool watches in general), 3. certain middle-high range Swiss makes like Rolex, Omega etc., and 4. large 37mm + vintage pieces. Quality is always important (unpolished case, original and clean dial, original movement etc.). These are the watches that younger (i.e. millennial) collectors seems to be interested in. Although, at 30, I'm not really attracted to those sports watches.

Before getting interested in Longines and Omega (clearly at the wrong time), I was a big, and still am, Hamilton collector. My primary focus was gold-filled, tank, tonneau, and cushion-shaped watches from the 1920s to the early 1950s. Those watches were really popular in the 80s and 90s, but have fallen out of popularity (and value) since then. Another area that was huge in watch collecting from the 80s to the early 2000s was American-made, high-grade pocket watches, specifically railroad grade watches from Ball, Hamilton, Illinois, Elgin, Waltham etc. Those watches were more expensive 20 years ago than they are today. It's actually a pretty good time to buy a high-grade pocket watch for a good price.

High grade vintage pocket watches have been undervalued and good buys for as long as I can remember.

omegaswisst · Oct 1, 2019

IanES
I haven't looked at prices for watches recently but was surprised to see an early 70's speedmaster on TV Antique Roadshow being valued at 5000 to 6000 (UK Pounds). Looking at bay and UK's 'watchefinder' sites I see that 145-022 (straight writing on the case back and stepped outer track on the minute dial are going for crazy money.

Is this just a 50th Anniversary extra demand blip and maybe prices will settle back down again once the novely wears off or is it likely to continue?

Just wondering if I should cash in my speedmaster now or leave it a few years longer?

Hi Ian and welcome to the forum.

I've been tracking the prices on Speedmaster 101 since December 2017 (many thanks to Spacefruit for his price updates).

Below is a simplistic comparison but I think it echoes what other have said that the quality watches are out performing the rest of the market.

All prices in USD (head only)
So for a full set of Speedmasters listed on Speedmaster 101

December 2017
Running condition.......$345,200
Good condition............$626,800
Collector condition.......$945,400.

October 2019
Running condition.......$352,700........(2% increase)
Good condition............$710,800........(13% increase)
Collector condition.......$1,253,000.....(32% increase)

The greatest percentage change from December 2017 to October 2019 came from the 2915s:

2915.......+35%
2998.......+13%
105.........+15%
145.........+9%

MCC · Oct 2, 2019

@IanES Reading everyone's contributions on this topic it seems that the consensus is that:

1) Vintage watches have generally gone up in value
2) Better models have gone up more and are more likely to appreciate
3) No one really knows what future prices will look like but would not be surprised to see decreases for those watches that are in poorer condition.

So the biggest thing to work out for your own watches is how correct they are and what is their general condition. Speedmaster 101 will help you from there.

Having said that the watches in my collection that have "appreciated" the most are not vintage but modern Rolex. The sports models appear to have gone up 150% + in the last 3 years. I don't view watches as investments and have no intention to sell but it does make you think.

IanES · Oct 2, 2019

JwRosenthal
We all love pics here so if you want to stick around, share some pics of your watch(es).

Here's one I just posted on another topic in reply to a question about Subs. (Not the watch we're talking about here)

That pic is from this topic:-
https://omegaforums.net/threads/rolex-subs-for-newbies.101826/

More pics later

Archer · Oct 2, 2019

IanES
I have seen prices in general climbing over the last few years but was just wondering if specifically the Moonwatch had experience a more-than-average hike in its price specifically this year (2019) being the 50th anniversary of apollo 11. If speedy pro has had a more than average hike this year then it is likly to correct itself downwards once the anniversary novelty wears off. and I just wanted your options on that.

The prices on these have been so volatile over the last few years, that I don't think it's really possible to come to any solid conclusions. Someone can certainly give you a best guess, but IMO it would be with an emphasis on the guess part...

One could certainly argue that the 50th year created a lot of interest in Speedmasters, but I think it would be presumptuous to assume that the interest would suddenly die when the calendar flips. While for some it may die down, for others this could have been the start of a true interest, and wanting even more Speedmasters in the future.

No one really knows is the answer. I've used this example before, but the guys who were buying up Rolex Bubble Backs years ago at top prices, know that what goes up can certainly come down. No one really called that either...

Cheers, Al

IanES · Oct 11, 2019

JwRosenthal
We all love pics here so if you want to stick around, share some pics of your watch(es).

Just took some new ones - I only have a cellphone camera so took the pictures through a bench magnifying glass.

I believe the strap is the original 50 year old strap. I always had the watch on a modern speedmaster bracelet so the strap was always in the box.
I said "50 Year Old" because I don't actually know if the watch is a 022.69 or 71

I'm thinking of having it serviced but I'm afraid they'll change dial, bezel, pointers etc. Or can I instruct them not to change anything at all?

KingCrouchy · Oct 11, 2019

IanES
Just took some new ones - I only have a cellphone camera so took the pictures through a bench magnifying glass.

I believe the strap is the original 50 year old strap. I always had the watch on a modern speedmaster bracelet so the strap was always in the box.
I said "50 Year Old" because I don't actually know if the watch is a 022.69 or 71

I'm thinking of having it serviced but I'm afraid they'll change dial, bezel, pointers etc. Or can I instruct them not to change anything at all?

Just send it to an independent Watchmaker with a parts account. Omega gave a shit about my instructions so many times that I wouldn't trust them.

Davidt · Oct 11, 2019

IanES
Just took some new ones - I only have a cellphone camera so took the pictures through a bench magnifying glass.

I believe the strap is the original 50 year old strap. I always had the watch on a modern speedmaster bracelet so the strap was always in the box.
I said "50 Year Old" because I don't actually know if the watch is a 022.69 or 71

I'm thinking of having it serviced but I'm afraid they'll change dial, bezel, pointers etc. Or can I instruct them not to change anything at all?

Unless the case back has been swapped at some point it’s a -69.

Are the current 'high' prices temporary?

Larry S

Davidt

nonuffinkbloke

SportChief

MSNWatch

omegaswisst

MCC

IanES

Archer

IanES

KingCrouchy

Davidt

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