I suspect prices are rising for a different reason - but related to what you're suggesting. We're seeing a boom in vintage watches. As the market creates too much demand people look for an outlet to buy the next best thing. The more people priced out and looking at those alternatives creates a new area of demand, hence the prices rise. I noticing the same thing happen with Rolex. As people are priced out of the 4-digit reference market, they turn to the 5-digit transitional references. Now those are quickly becoming unaffordable.
I agree with what was said, if the market turns, it'll be the modern and transitional (and unexceptional vintage) pieces that lose the most value while exceptional vintage pieces will hold their value.
Anecdotally, I've noticed a bit of a seachange in regards to vintage - where once a seller could put forth any old vintage (serviced, polished, multi-owner, replaced parts, etc) and demand a premium those pieces aren't selling as hot lately. Collectors seem to be looking for quality of quantity (at least in my vicarious IG experience...so take that last statement with a grain of salt).
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