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Are the current 'high' prices temporary?

  1. IanES

    IanES Oct 1, 2019

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    I haven't looked at prices for watches recently but was surprised to see an early 70's speedmaster on TV Antique Roadshow being valued at 5000 to 6000 (UK Pounds). Looking at bay and UK's 'watchefinder' sites I see that 145-022 (straight writing on the case back and stepped outer track on the minute dial are going for crazy money.

    Is this just a 50th Anniversary extra demand blip and maybe prices will settle back down again once the novely wears off or is it likely to continue?

    Just wondering if I should cash in my speedmaster now or leave it a few years longer?
     
  2. Tony C.

    Tony C. Ωf Jury member Oct 1, 2019

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    Yes, sell.

    Seriously.
     
  3. Passover

    Passover Oct 1, 2019

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    This forum is for watch enthusiasts and not for cash maximizers as far as I understand it.

    If you don't need your watch sell it and move on to the stock market
     
    Matth1984, Risto, KingCrouchy and 2 others like this.
  4. IanES

    IanES Oct 1, 2019

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    I'm new here so I want to be real careful not to start a punch-up - But, with respect, you don't know me so please don't assume I'm not a watch enthusiast.

    Perhaps I just see an opportunity to part with one from my collection so I can use that inflated PX value towards something that I couldn't afford a few years ago and, according to Tony C, likely won't be able to afford in the near future when the bottom falls out on the 51th anniversary.
     
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  5. MCC

    MCC Oct 1, 2019

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    Your guess is as good as ours, what is your view of the market based on the prices you haven't looked at ? :p
     
  6. TexOmega

    TexOmega Oct 1, 2019

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    So, how many PM have you gotten so far?
     
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  7. JwRosenthal

    JwRosenthal Oct 1, 2019

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    Welcome Ian. You should introduce yourself to the community and let us know who you are. People around here get jumpy when someone mentions money on there first post- lots of people coming here looking for free appraisals before they put them up for sale.
     
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  8. IanES

    IanES Oct 1, 2019

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    Well of course I've looked at prices today - but you guys are active members on an omega forum so I kind of assumed that you've seen prices go up and down over the years.
    PM? Do you mean personal messages? None. I'm not selling. I don't want the hassle. If I do part with my watch I'll PX through a proper dealer - sure I'll get less and pay more but I'm just too old to worry about all these bay/ppal scams.
     
  9. IanES

    IanES Oct 1, 2019

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    Well, in all honesty, it was the pound signs in my eyes that brought me here so it didn't occur to me to loiter for a while. Never intended my first post to look like an offer to sell.

    I'm Ian. I'm a software developer in my 60's (yes, us old guys can code as well as you young uns) I went through a 'phase' around 20 years ago where I picked up a few watches. Things that I wear. I don't necessarily want to sell my 145-022 but thought you guys with more experience in these things might have a better hunch about if now is the time to stroll into my local dealer and get a better PX deal.
     
  10. JwRosenthal

    JwRosenthal Oct 1, 2019

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    Well, you have an avatar so that’s a good first step if you want to stick around and join the conversations.
    The entire vintage watch maket is nuts right now- seriously, it’s insane. Speculating on its direction is the same as with property or stocks- just when you think it can go higher and you sell, it spikes another 30% the next day. Or you decide to hold and it tanks the next day.
    From what I have gathered from those that have been here for while is that the market was fairly flat with an upward slope until about 5-10 years ago when it started to spike and even further jumped in the last 2 years. We are still in that spike. It’s anyones guess at this point.
    I think that if there is a global recession on the horizon (which I think there is sooner than later) you will see a slight dip in the highest end of the market but not a serious crash- the really rare pieces will hold their value but may flatline. The middle of the market (more modern and mass produced/common pieces will drop considerably as the new money dumps their assets to avoid being foreclosed on their McMansions.

    We all love pics here so if you want to stick around, share some pics of your watch(es).
     
    murph, Dash1, mydeafcat and 1 other person like this.
  11. IanES

    IanES Oct 1, 2019

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    I have seen prices in general climbing over the last few years but was just wondering if specifically the Moonwatch had experience a more-than-average hike in its price specifically this year (2019) being the 50th anniversary of apollo 11. If speedy pro has had a more than average hike this year then it is likly to correct itself downwards once the anniversary novelty wears off. and I just wanted your options on that.
     
  12. percymon

    percymon Oct 1, 2019

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    I’ve missed a few sales in the last 6 weeks, and whether is 50th fever or just coming out of the summer doldrums i’d Say asking prices on chrono24 for 69-76 Speedmasters have risen maybe £500 in the last few weeks. I can’t find anything at my original budget and I’m struggling to find any reasonable examples at £4.5k in Europe. Transitionals seem to be heading towards £7k at the moment. Watches are cheaper in USA and Japan but no use for me in the UK with exchange rates and ca 20% taxes to add to the sales prices
     
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  13. IanES

    IanES Oct 1, 2019

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    Give me a little time and I'll post some pics.
     
    chronos likes this.
  14. JwRosenthal

    JwRosenthal Oct 1, 2019

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    Even the 80's/90's models are rising in price because people recognize them as the last of the Tritium dials.
     
  15. cicindela

    cicindela Steve @ ΩF Staff Member Oct 1, 2019

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    Ian, you need to look at speedmaster101.com. It would open your eyes to current events and you will quickly learn a lot.
     
  16. mzinski

    mzinski Oct 1, 2019

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    I suspect prices are rising for a different reason - but related to what you're suggesting. We're seeing a boom in vintage watches. As the market creates too much demand people look for an outlet to buy the next best thing. The more people priced out and looking at those alternatives creates a new area of demand, hence the prices rise. I noticing the same thing happen with Rolex. As people are priced out of the 4-digit reference market, they turn to the 5-digit transitional references. Now those are quickly becoming unaffordable.
    I agree with what was said, if the market turns, it'll be the modern and transitional (and unexceptional vintage) pieces that lose the most value while exceptional vintage pieces will hold their value.
    Anecdotally, I've noticed a bit of a seachange in regards to vintage - where once a seller could put forth any old vintage (serviced, polished, multi-owner, replaced parts, etc) and demand a premium those pieces aren't selling as hot lately. Collectors seem to be looking for quality of quantity (at least in my vicarious IG experience...so take that last statement with a grain of salt).
     
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  17. JwRosenthal

    JwRosenthal Oct 1, 2019

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    This has been noted on other threads and it took me a minute to realize what was happening- and it seemed to change so quickly. I saw vintage watch models that I had been watching seemingly start to lose value over night but when I stepped back and looked at the entire spectrum of those models did I realize that the middle of the quality spectrum were declining but the best examples were escalating quickly.
    This leaves some good values for those wanting a less than perfect example to wear on the regular, but the best of the best for anything of value are reaching unattainable for most.

    Just as an illustration of this point- I was watching Rolex 1603's for about a year (hunting for the right birth year watch for me). They hovered between $2.8k-3.3k, from middle of the range to among the best. The middle of the range examples (over-polished, dial damage, missing bracelet) started declining down to the mid to low $2k, and I thought the market was tanking on them (yay for me), but then realized the best examples were climbing to $4k quickly. It's amazing to watch the vintage watch market and see how it's moving.
     
    Edited Oct 1, 2019
  18. jaguar11

    jaguar11 Oct 1, 2019

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    Sell sell sell and get out while you can!!! You have the chance to cash in so take it! Or, you could keep, enjoy or even use it to tell the time....
     
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  19. gbesq

    gbesq Oct 1, 2019

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    They’re all buying!?! SELL!!! They’re all selling!?! BUY!!! Sound financial advice from Thurston Howell III.
     
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  20. Dan S

    Dan S Oct 1, 2019

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    Prices of Speedmasters continue to rise gradually, as do several other desirable vintage brands and references. I think that many people suspected a 50th anniversary bubble, but personally I don't see support for that in the actual market prices. No "blip" in my opinion.

    On the other hand, there is a frequent debate on the forum between people who feel that we are experiencing a general vintage watch bubble at the moment, and others who think that prices for desirable pieces will continue to rise. There is no clear consensus, so you have the opportunity to forge your own path. Pick your camp, and sell or hold accordingly.