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Are members invested in Bitcoin/crypto?

TheGreatKat
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I was wrong about how long the CBs could keep the balls in the air during this awful, failed experiment, but do believe that the "everything" bubble was initially pierced some time ago, and that what we are now experiencing is an acceleration of the unavoidable deflation. So in terms of gold's performance, particularly in USDs, these are, I would say, early innings, and it would surprise me greatly if it were not to shine brightly over the next 2-5 years, given the near certainty that the Fed will cut rates and start printing again sooner, rather than later.[/QUOTE]

That's really getting interesting here when you moved the topic from BTC to financial matters in general. But I don't understand what you mean by saying it's an acceleration of the unavoidable deflation? How can it be a result while we have huge problems with inflation and you also says Fed will start printing again which just should increase the problem. Could you explain me what I miss?
 
Tony C.
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TheGreatKat TheGreatKat
That's really getting interesting here when you moved the topic from BTC to financial matters in general. But I don't understand what you mean by saying it's an acceleration of the unavoidable deflation?

I didn't "move" the topic, and the two are closely related in a number of important ways. If you want to understand Bitcoin, or the broader crypto space, it's crucial to have a handle on the broader economy, and the economic policies that play such an important role in shaping it.

But I don't understand what you mean by saying it's an acceleration of the unavoidable deflation? How can it be a result while we have huge problems with inflation and you also says Fed will start printing again which just should increase the problem. Could you explain me what I miss?

Central bank policies, especially since the '08/'09 crisis, have catalyzed historic bubbles in stocks, bonds, and real estate. Those policies are now being reversed (e.g. higher interest rates, Quantitative Tightening, etc.), and the bubbles are deflating. In other words, I was referring to asset bubbles deflating. Price inflation is a different matter.

The central banks are trapped, as they cannot raise rates significantly, which would be the "textbook" solution to the inflation problem. They are trying to take some air out of the markets, and jawboning as if that will solve the inflation problem. That's not likely to happen.
Edited:
 
Walrus
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Tony C. Tony C.
I didn't "move" the topic, and the two are closely related in a number of important ways. If you want to understand Bitcoin, or the broader crypto space, it's crucial to have a handle on the broader economy, and the economic policies that play such an important role in shaping it.



Central bank policies, especially since the '08/'09 crisis ,have catalyzed historic bubbles in stocks, bonds, and real estate. Those policies are now being reversed (e.g. higher interest rates, Quantitative Tightening, etc.), and the bubbles are deflating. In other words, I was referring to asset bubbles deflating. Price inflation is a different matter.

The central banks are trapped, as they cannot raise rates significantly, which would be the "textbook" solution to the inflation problem. They are trying to take some air out of the markets, and jawboning as if that will solve the inflation problem. That's not likely to happen.
And tony didnt move the topic alone if you look back we have been talking about the money printer, QE and certain stocks and other light financial stuff for quite a while.
I visited my crypto buddies down the street and there is still a decent mass of speculation on some coins I never heard of. I think it was muse did 124% in one day yesterday. Honestly I expected to find them all bummed out but they always manage to find the speculation. Well good on them whatever floats your boat I guess.
 
Dsloan
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Tony C. Tony C.
And an interesting twist...

Cels87.png

Interesting. Maybe I'll get to recover the eth I accidentally left there 😒.
 
Tony C.
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For the benefit of any members who are interested in what is currently happening in the crypto space, and particularly Tether, FTX and/or Coinbase, I recommend reading this article by Jay Pinho:

https://networked.substack.com/p/if-tether-falls-ftx-and-coinbase

I have relatively little knowledge on the topic, and found his comprehensive overview to be very helpful in understanding what is happening, and why these companies should be viewed with a good deal of skepticism.
 
TheGreatKat
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Tony C. Tony C.
For the benefit of any members who are interested in what is currently happening in the crypto space, and particularly Tether, FTX and/or Coinbase, I recommend reading this article by Jay Pinho:

https://networked.substack.com/p/if-tether-falls-ftx-and-coinbase

I have relatively little knowledge on the topic, and found his comprehensive overview to be very helpful in understanding what is happening, and why these companies should be viewed with a good deal of skepticism.

Very interesting read, thank you Tony! This is indeed quite scary. But regarding all these bubbles piercing do you think it will affect watch world? Rolexes, APs, Pateks seems to be way more an investment product than a luxury thing to own recently...
 
Tony C.
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TheGreatKat TheGreatKat
Very interesting read, thank you Tony! This is indeed quite scary. But regarding all these bubbles piercing do you think it will affect watch world? Rolexes, APs, Pateks seems to be way more an investment product than a luxury thing to own recently...

You're welcome, and I'm glad that you found the article to be of interest.

Your question is interesting, but the answer could be somewhat complex. I'll try to be relatively brief, so as not to veer too far off the Bitcoin topic.

I think that the vintage watch market has been changing for several years now, but that those changes are now accelerating. I believe that there has been a bifurcation, with the most desirable models, and watches in extremely good condition, holding their values well, or appreciating in some cases. The remainder, a large majority, have been facing downward price pressure, as an increasing number of middle-class collectors have reduced their activities, while more and more the best examples have ended up in "strong hands", and no longer circulate in the market.

I don't follow the modern or contemporary market, but would expect watches in those (unproven) categories to be relatively poor investments when compared with the best vintage examples. It is true that as central banks continue to degrade the value of currencies, and inflation further degrades the purchasing power of consumers, hard assets should benefit. But collectibles such as watches, cars, and Fine Art were all arguably in bubbles that were inflated over the past ~15 years, and I would expect those categories to experience a general deflation in values.

In summary, I'd say that it is a dangerous time to "invest" in collectibles, but if one were to do so, the best and most desirable examples are likely to hold their values better, and be more liquid than the others.
 
TheGreatKat
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Tony C. Tony C.
You're welcome, and I'm glad that you found the article to be of interest.

Your question is interesting, but the answer could be somewhat complex. I'll try to be relatively brief, so as not to veer too far off the Bitcoin topic.

I think that the vintage watch market has been changing for several years now, but that those changes are now accelerating. I believe that there has been a bifurcation, with the most desirable models, and watches in extremely good condition, holding their values well, or appreciating in some cases. The remainder, a large majority, have been facing downward price pressure, as an increasing number of middle-class collectors have reduced their activities, while more and more the best examples have ended up in "strong hands", and no longer circulate in the market.

I don't follow the modern or contemporary market, but would expect watches in those (unproven) categories to be relatively poor investments when compared with the best vintage examples. It is true that as central banks continue to degrade the value of currencies, and inflation further degrades the purchasing power of consumers, hard assets should benefit. But collectibles such as watches, cars, and Fine Art were all arguably in bubbles that were inflated over the past ~15 years, and I would expect those categories to experience a general deflation in values.

In summary, I'd say that it is a dangerous time to "invest" in collectibles, but if one were to do so, the best and most desirable examples are likely to hold their values better, and be more liquid than the others.

Thanks! Actually it could bring back more fun to collect watches if a market drops, isn't it? Still I'm curious where all that money can go. Gold, bonds? Or just disappear with deflation of assets and lack of fresh waves of money...
 
Tony C.
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TheGreatKat TheGreatKat
Actually it could bring back more fun to collect watches if a market drops, isn't it?

Let's hope! Some of us are old enough to remember the good old days of collecting, when there were many bargains to be found, but given the popularity of vintage watches, coupled with the internet, I don't expect to see any broad and deep discounts on the most sought after watches. Having said that, it should be an excellent time to buy really good, undervalued watches (e.g. Certina DS, etc.).
 
STANDY
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TheGreatKat TheGreatKat
Thanks! Actually it could bring back more fun to collect watches if a market drops, isn't it? Still I'm curious where all that money can go. Gold, bonds? Or just disappear with deflation of assets and lack of fresh waves of money...

The problem is the fun to collect watches has changed with two major changes in 10 years.

1) the biggest change is the sheer amount of new people into the watch market place. There has been a market explosion in people interested in watches over the last 10 years. It used to be a few thousand nerds now it’s tens of thousands on Instagram and on forums. Also a Tenfold increase in pseudo dealers and dealers in general

(Years ago several members would own the same watch for a year or two. Buy it for $1000 sell it to the next owner for $1000 who sold it to fund another watch to a member for $1000)
Now it’s buy it for $1000 sell it for $1500 so you can fund your next purchase and work your way up to owning better watches.

2) watches are investments and not a collectable. (Rolex, MoonSwatch) buy it to make money. This happens with knives, sneakers, clothing, pretty much anything limited Edition or luxury branded.
 
zkramez
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I am thinking of getting in soon. We will see what happens
 
The Father
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Bitcoin has no fundamentals. Is an imaginary method value.
Pity the bastards that bought at $60K.
"Bitcoin is going to a million dollars!"
Bitcoin goes up and down like a cheap whore.
Would trust the Trollip more than Bitcoin.
 
zkramez
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The Father The Father
Bitcoin has no fundamentals. Is an imaginary method value.
Pity the bastards that bought at $60K.
"Bitcoin is going to a million dollars!"
Bitcoin goes up and down like a cheap whore.
Would trust the Trollip more than Bitcoin.
It is a good time to get in now
 
Bourne1984
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Tony C. Tony C.
FOub45fXIAQt_SJ.jpeg
Too true.
It was interesting to see the direct correlation with the rise of crypto and so many seemingly 18-25yr old financial experts who were so free with their advice on YouTube. I’m yet to invest but they seem to be confident I can turn my 50p into a fortune. Count me in!
 
keepschanging
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I respect the Crypto crew but ... I'm one of the "worthless piece of code that does nothing" crew...

I'm heavily investing in LKNCY right now. I am pretty much selling everything I can to buy that.
 
TheGreatKat
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Tony C. Tony C.
Let's hope! Some of us are old enough to remember the good old days of collecting, when there were many bargains to be found, but given the popularity of vintage watches, coupled with the internet, I don't expect to see any broad and deep discounts on the most sought after watches. Having said that, it should be an excellent time to buy really good, undervalued watches (e.g. Certina DS, etc.).

Recent read on that topic. Close to what you wrote.
https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/w...mRQOftnOZxEEiR2gajeRz3qHjCyEK-Z9dR7znNqLG_J-0
 
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