Are members invested in Bitcoin/crypto?

Walrus · May 16, 2022

Archer
Are you doing that? Because I'm certainly not...

No, and I was not implying you were it just seems to be an issue with some social media which is the main source people get their news today (percentage wise which I don’t know off the top of my head) you click news articles you like and are only fed news backing that which you have showed interest in. Leads to more clicks.
Having said that it does seem difficult to find a news source that isn’t biased one way side or another. That includes Bitcoin and other finance I mean let’s face it we are not going to know how bad this is going to get until we are on the other side of it.

offrdmania · May 16, 2022

No Bitcoin here but im all in on Puslechain and PulseX. Pulsechain is a competing network to Ethereum without the crazy gas fees. It is what Ethereum 2.0 was supposed to be but never materialized.
PulseX is the equivalent to Uniswap but on the Pulsechain network.
Both are supposed to launch in the next few weeks and many new millionaires will be born. It is exciting times for those who are anti Bitcoin or Eth.

Walrus · May 16, 2022

offrdmania
No Bitcoin here but im all in on Puslechain and PulseX. Pulsechain is a competing network to Ethereum without the crazy gas fees. It is what Ethereum 2.0 was supposed to be but never materialized.
PulseX is the equivalent to Uniswap but on the Pulsechain network.
Both are supposed to launch in the next few weeks and many new millionaires will be born. It is exciting times for those who are anti Bitcoin or Eth.

How many eth killers we up to now? Luna/Terra was one.

offrdmania · May 16, 2022

Walrus
How many eth killers we up to now? Luna/Terra was one.

The difference is the team building this platform is coming off of coin that they developed which has increased 14,000x since its inception almost 3 years ago without a single minute of downtime. Haters gonna hate and thats ok, more for me.

Walrus · May 16, 2022

offrdmania
The difference is the team building this platform is coming off of coin that they developed which has increased 14,000x since its inception almost 3 years ago without a single minute of downtime. Haters gonna hate and thats ok, more for me.

I don’t have hate for inanimate objects I’ve just gotten in on numerous eth killers myself still waiting for one to live up to its promise. Hadn’t happened yet. 14k times isn’t unusual in the small market cap coins that come and go. What coin did they develop that 14k. Not a minute of downtime? What kind of usage? Was it premined? Venture capital? Is the lock up over?

wristpirate · May 16, 2022

Walrus
If you bought crypto within the last year you are in the red but when you zoom out there are many holders out there still doing fine.

On 13th May 2022 The Washington Post reported:

"Nearly 40 percent of bitcoin holders have lost money on their investment, data from crypto intelligence firm Glassnode shows. Over a quarter of the global market for cryptocurrency has evaporated, according to crypto analytics website CoinMarketCap."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/05/13/crypto-crash/

offrdmania · May 16, 2022

Walrus
I don’t have hate for inanimate objects I’ve just gotten in on numerous eth killers myself still waiting for one to live up to its promise. Hadn’t happened yet. 14k times isn’t unusual in the small market cap coins that come and go. What coin did they develop that 14k. Not a minute of downtime? What kind of usage? Was it premined? Venture capital? Is the lock up over?

Not a small market cap, sitting at #8 right now, have been up to #2 in the last 12 months. Market cap is just under $19B right now. It could rise once again just before the Pulsechain launch since people will want liquid coins in their wallet for the Airdrop.
https://nomics.com/
Prior to the Pulsechain and PulseX announcement, Hex sat with a market cap of over $200B and would swap the #2 and #3 spots constantly, it happened a few times last year. Its only because of the Pulse announcement that the cap has fallen. Nearly $2B of Hex was sacrificed late last year for Pulsechain and PulseX.
Look at the history of the top 10 over the last year, all are down 20, 30, 40%, etc. Click on the little info tab next to the price of Hex, up over 155% over the last year.

Walrus · May 16, 2022

wristpirate
On 13th May 2022 The Washington Post reported:

"Nearly 40 percent of bitcoin holders have lost money on their investment, data from crypto intelligence firm Glassnode shows. Over a quarter of the global market for cryptocurrency has evaporated, according to crypto analytics website CoinMarketCap."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/05/13/crypto-crash/

Right so majority are still ok I’m in the 60%. I think the same can be said for those who entered the stock market the last six months to a year. But this is the risk involved with investing, crypto even more so, it’s not for everyone. The only reason I’m up is I got in years ago and held If I just entered I’d be creamed

Walrus · May 16, 2022

Honestly I don’t get into that “crypto tribalism” thing. The Bitcoin cash people are convinced they have the true coin satoshi imagined I listen to them and at the end just say “cool” cause someday we will know the best ones if crypto survives but no one has an accurate crystal ball so IMO everyone is just spitting out words that don’t mean much.

On a serious note I am starting to get concerned for the acquaintance I have that I fear may have had six figures in terra Luna. People do that, 19.5%apy on something that is supposed to be a “stable coin” you could talk yourself into “no risk here”. I’m not real close to him but I need to find a way to reach out. You hate to think about it but losing a massive amount of money can push people over the edge.

Tony C. · May 16, 2022

Interesting related thread:

https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1526311908709502977

offrdmania · May 16, 2022

It has been predicted for some time now that Bitcoin will do another correction, similar to what it did in 2017. It will come down to 10 grand again and then will be pumped back up again for another few years. It wasnt liquid enough to sustain 60 grand, let alone even 40 grand. Richard Heart called the top on the day and has also predicted 2017 and has predicted this correction. Start at 1:52 or watch the whole thing.

fibonacci · May 17, 2022

Tony C.
Interesting related thread:

https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1526311908709502977

I didn't quite follow what this person is saying. Is it essentially that the government(s) will stop printing money, so there will be less money floating around with nothing to do, so demand for bitcoin will go down?

Tony C. · May 17, 2022

fibonacci
I didn't quite follow what this person is saying. Is it essentially that the government(s) will stop printing money, so there will be less money floating around with nothing to do, so demand for bitcoin will go down?

That's a big part of it, yes. I'll break down what I see as Kao's central points.

First, as you suggest, the extreme, unprecedented period of central bank money printing (and interest rate suppression), began at exactly the same time that Bitcoin was created:

He also stresses the importance of inelastic supply:

and teases out what it is likely to mean for BTC, but also includes what would happen if the supply were to become more elastic:

He also produces an elegant metaphor:

I recommend reading this related thread, in which he expounds on the capacitor metaphor:

https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1395390683951685633

fibonacci · May 17, 2022

Archer
Interesting read...I'm sure many here would disagree...

Why This Computer Scientist Says All Cryptocurrency Should “Die in a Fire” ❧ Current Affairs

As someone with a neutral outlook toward bitcoin (I own a little to be in the game, but not much, and if it all went to zero I'd find it amusing), this interview was almost completely unconvincing. There don't really seem to be any actual arguments put forward, just someone loudly saying that other people are stupid.

For example, he states that bitcoin uses too much electricity and simply dismisses the counter-argument that its use is more efficient than commonly portrayed. He states that bitcoin can't be used as a global payment system and again just dismissed so-called "layer two" solutions which attempt to address that. All he really has to say about smart contracts is that they aren't reversible.

He may very well be right, but I didn't find much to take away.

Observer · May 17, 2022

It’s become fascinating for me to watch these conversations. Almost everyone seems to think crypto is bad or good instead of being new technology and an asset class to diversify into. From attention seeking professors to delusional rollers of the dice, it’s weird how so many people are emotionally invested.

Most blockchains are public ledgers, so I got to watch with friends as a well known YouTube influencer in the gaming NFT space panic sold some trophy assets at a (current) market low to avoid being liquidated on a leveraged position. Like more than fifty Rolexes worth of pain. Murky traditional finance doesn’t give you that front row seat to real time lessons about the dangers of wishful thinking

fibonacci · May 17, 2022

Tony C.
I recommend reading this related thread, in which he expounds on the capacitor metaphor:

https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1395390683951685633

Here I'm reading something different than what I first did. He seems to be saying the bubble will pop not because the government will stop printing money, but because of the inflation that finally results from all of the money printed to date. It's an interesting idea that I'd like to see fleshed out more.

When Inflation was quiescent over the last several decades, “Bubble” Capacitors could stay charged without the threat of the Inflation Short-Circuit.

That changes when the Average Joe realizes that costs of energy, food, and shelter - basically everything at the BASE of Maslow’s Hierarchy - are going up and taking precedence over speculation.

Note that the supply/demand setup is NOT predicated upon an overzealous Fed/Treasury Battery, but it is definitely being exacerbated and accelerated by one.

Going back to our circuit diagram, what happens when Inflation worries provide the Short Circuit to the Bubble Capacitor? They discharge rapidly and you witness a bright flash of the Economic Lightbulb before it goes dark.

Archer · May 17, 2022

fibonacci
As someone with a neutral outlook toward bitcoin (I own a little to be in the game, but not much, and if it all went to zero I'd find it amusing), this interview was almost completely unconvincing. There don't really seem to be any actual arguments put forward, just someone loudly saying that other people are stupid.

For example, he states that bitcoin uses too much electricity and simply dismisses the counter-argument that its use is more efficient than commonly portrayed. He states that bitcoin can't be used as a global payment system and again just dismissed so-called "layer two" solutions which attempt to address that. All he really has to say about smart contracts is that they aren't reversible.

He may very well be right, but I didn't find much to take away.

As I said many here will disagree. I personally don't see the benefit of crypto currencies, and in my life it's not something I have ever had to deal with. In other words, no one has asked to pay me in crypto, and no one has asked me to pay them in crypto. At this point it isn't really a currency, but a highly speculative investment, that really isn't backed by any anything other than people's belief. I'm sure I'll hear that all currencies are the same, but I don't invest in all currencies either...to me a currency is a tool to facilitate business, not an investment.

Dan S · May 17, 2022

Interesting that this thread is coming around to the topic of a loose monetary supply creating a bubble. There used to be a whole thread on that topic that went on for years, but it became very adversarial and was closed IIRC.

fibonacci · May 17, 2022

Archer
As I said many here will disagree. I personally don't see the benefit of crypto currencies, and in my life it's not something I have ever had to deal with. In other words, no one has asked to pay me in crypto, and no one has asked me to pay them in crypto. At this point it isn't really a currency, but a highly speculative investment, that really isn't backed by any anything other than people's belief. I'm sure I'll hear that all currencies are the same, but I don't invest in all currencies either...to me a currency is a tool to facilitate business, not an investment.

I don't necessarily disagree. Bitcoin could be the biggest bubble since the South Sea Company; I'm not smart enough to know. I just think arguments along the lines of "bitcoin will fail because it can't replace Visa" aren't useful because they don't get at what is potentially interesting about it. Here's Tyler Cowen:

I think of crypto not so much as a currency. You can’t really use it to buy a coffee at Starbucks.They’ve been failing as that kind of currency. I think of them as new kinds of computers, new kinds of legal systems, and new ways of achieving reliable decentralized consensus. So I think they’re most analogous to advances in computing rather than some kind of monetary event.

https://techcrunch.com/2022/02/11/what-does-a-real-economist-think-of-cryptocurrencies/

Archer · May 17, 2022

fibonacci
I don't necessarily disagree. Bitcoin could be the biggest bubble since the South Sea Company; I'm not smart enough to know. I just think arguments along the lines of "bitcoin will fail because it can't replace Visa" aren't useful because they don't get at what is potentially interesting about it. Here's Tyler Cowen:

https://techcrunch.com/2022/02/11/what-does-a-real-economist-think-of-cryptocurrencies/

Well, like your reading of the article I linked to, I don't actually see much there. He says that it's not really good at being a currency in the traditional way, for buying and selling of everyday goods, which is what the article I posted said as well. He actually appears to be more pro blockchain, and not cryptocurrencies, which use blockchain. Whole different discussion...