Are members invested in Bitcoin/crypto?

Doc Savage · Jul 16, 2021

Walrus
Either one believes in the further adoption of Bitcoin and ethereum along with some other cryptos or one doesn’t. It is always unfortunate for those who bought at an ATH and suffer a 50% drop but there are many who bought, well even a year ago and are up substantially. The FOMO has certainly died down but as one looks at crypto performance it helps to zoom out to get the full picture. Bitcoin has been declared dead 130 times now. The things that are possible with ethereum are quite amazing. I like to hear those who think it’s a scam or pyramid Scheme etc, it’s good to look at all sides of everything. I think around here there is more anti Bitcoin/crypto sentiment which is fine. As far as NFT’s go it is not out of the realm of possibility stocks will be NFT’s or traded on ethereum (over simplified explanation) block chain technology was used in some of the programs that handled vaccination appointments. IBM has been building on it, medical records the technology behind Bitcoin has already done quite a bit to help man kind. And it was given free and open source to the world, that part of it will always amaze me. I’m fine with people not liking it, I don’t like broccoli that much but I don’t tell people it’s bad. I eat it cause they say it’s healthy and my wife likes it. Now broccoli rabe, that’s pretty darn good.

I have been trading crypos for more than 4 years, and I think it's more than the binary choice you mentioned above. Bitcoin will continue as the leader in the field for a while, but Ether will likely overtake it. In time, both will be replaced by a superior crypto technology - one that probably has not yet been designed. At that point, the old coins will go to zero. New tech in the crypto field will attract the investment money and turn today's coins into relics. I can't say when this will happen. I am long BTC and ETH, because I think they are still the leaders in the field and have more to offer as assets. For now.

The more important question is where price goes from here. BTC halves every 4 years, and price action during each 4 year period follows what has been a fairly predictable pattern. The question is this: where are we in our curent pattern? Have we topped out, or do we have another run up to new highs before we spend 2 years pulling back and consolidating? I'm not sure.

The chart shows price pattern between halvings.

Bitcoin halving period price comparisons.png

Walrus · Jul 16, 2021

Doc Savage
I have been trading crypos for more than 4 years, and I think it's more than the binary choice you mentioned above. Bitcoin will continue as the leader in the field for a while, but Ether will likely overtake it. In time, both will be replaced by a superior crypto technology - one that probably has not yet been designed. At that point, the old coins will go to zero. New tech in the crypto field will attract the investment money and turn today's coins into relics. I can't say when this will happen. I am long BTC and ETH, because I think they are still the leaders in the field and have more to offer as assets. For now.

The more important question is where price goes from here. BTC halves every 4 years, and price action during each 4 year period follows what has been a fairly predictable pattern. The question is this: where are we in our curent pattern? Have we topped out, or do we have another run up to new highs before we spend 2 years pulling back and consolidating? I'm not sure.

The chart shows price pattern between halvings.

Over eight years for me. I think it’s quite possible eth will overtake btc that’s as far as I will go with predicting the future. Sure something else could come along, I could also get hit by a bus tomorrow.

KeyWestPaw · Jul 17, 2021

Oof. Still holding.
And waiting...

Observer · Jul 18, 2021

Many crypto holders were optimistically excited when institutional money started showing up, but didn’t realize the market manipulation that would come with it. Price action has confused many, but it looks extremely familiar to anyone who’s been watching equities or especially precious metals in the past. The important thing to register (imo) is that the big money players are still accumulating.

It amazes me that so many people see it all as a scam and prefer USD. I guess they haven’t looked at a 100 year chart of the dollar’s value.

Archer · Jul 18, 2021

Observer
It amazes me that so many people see it all as a scam and prefer USD. I guess they haven’t looked at a 100 year chart of the dollar’s value.

I don't see Bitcoin it as a scam per se, but I do see it as very volatile and risky. How people will view this will depend on their timeline for investing - for me it is nothing I would put significant money into at this stage of my life, as it would feel like gambling, rather than investing.

I see little actual utility in it for me personally as a currency (and it doesn't appear to be used like much of one really), because payments can be made so easily for things in other ways that I just don't have the need for this.

timesofplenty · Jul 18, 2021

bought $100 in bitcoin a couple years ago coz an old friend told me i'd either buy him a beer or throw on on him in a year.
i didn't get rich, he didn't get doused.
don't look at it much, at one time it was nearly $500, right now its just over 200.
maybe i shoulda reinvested the profit?
seems like a lot of work.

Walrus · Jul 18, 2021

Observer
Many crypto holders were optimistically excited when institutional money started showing up, but didn’t realize the market manipulation that would come with it. Price action has confused many, but it looks extremely familiar to anyone who’s been watching equities or especially precious metals in the past. The important thing to register (imo) is that the big money players are still accumulating.

It amazes me that so many people see it all as a scam and prefer USD. I guess they haven’t looked at a 100 year chart of the dollar’s value.

It’s really still in its infancy. I was talking to someone I know who does international business he transferred 50,000 usd of btc for 18.50 cents and it settled I think he said in eight hours and that was not using the lightning network. He was saying so many people don’t understand the layers involved to settle an international transfer with legacy money. Or running your credit card and it says “approved” in seconds but there is so many layers in the banking industry what we think is instant is a very involved process. Im not saying Bitcoin could compete with the volume of visa or MasterCard at this time because it couldn’t, although the lightening network is an interesting twist. It was just kinda cool hearing him talk about it as he isn’t a crypto guy but the deal he was making offered a discount for crypto and he wanted to try it out. He was amazed. I was impressed as I’ve held it for 8 years and done 2 transaction would have been three but I messed it up, trying to buy a watch from someone here with ethereum. Ha ha I really wanted that watch to. Well I can say it’s my neighbor who made that transaction. He emailed me the thing showing the fees and what it involved I don’t think I should post it but it was very interesting hearing a very skilled successful business man praising his Bitcoin transaction. Very cool dude as well could probably buy and sell me a million times over but we help each other if one of our ride on mowers gets stuck or we will plow each other’s driveway if one of us is away during a storm. I never got the feeling he looks down at anyone.

Dsloan · Jul 18, 2021

If anyone has played around with certain parts of Defi, I think it's easier to see what's interesting about all this. Instead of having a huge institution be the money maker providing liquidity to a market, you get a seat at the table. At the moment, the APY is huge (compared to a bank). 10% APY on USDC. 20%+ APY if you provide liquidity on more volatile assets.

That said, there are tons of scenarios that could end with a huge rug pull. And, even if it gains larger adoption, 10+% APY is likely unsustainable. So, I continue to invest a little with my 'fun money'. I won't get rich, but won't have to sell all my watches to settle my debts if all goes to zero.

Dsloan · Jul 18, 2021

Walrus
It’s really still in its infancy. I was talking to someone I know who does international business he transferred 50,000 usd of btc for 18.50 cents and it settled I think he said in eight hours and that was not using the lightning network.

I've used crypto to make payments to friends. For example, paying them back for covering dinner. They got their money within 5 min and the gas fees were less than it costs to get your money immediately from PayPal. I could have used Zelle or something for free through my bank, but that can take days. Willit survive? Will it scale? Who knows. But, it's sort of neat technology.

Walrus · Jul 18, 2021

Dsloan
I've used crypto to make payments to friends. For example, paying them back for covering dinner. They got their money within 5 min and the gas fees were less than it costs to get your money immediately from PayPal. I could have used Zelle or something for free through my bank, but that can take days. Willit survive? Will it scale? Who knows. But, it's sort of neat technology.

So you were using eth? You said gas fees so I’m assuming eth. I went to buy a watch here with eth but the gas fees were like 70 bucks. Then I found I was doing something wrong and it should have been like 3 or 4 bucks

Dsloan · Jul 18, 2021

Walrus
So you were using eth? You said gas fees so I’m assuming eth. I went to buy a watch here with eth but the gas fees were like 70 bucks. Then I found I was doing something wrong and it should have been like 3 or 4 bucks

Yep. The fees have been really low recently. Should get much better after the next round of upgrades.

Walrus · Jul 18, 2021

Dsloan
Yep. The fees have been really low recently. Should get much better after the next round of upgrades.

I have most of mine staked so who knows when I’ll have access again but I left a couple out in case it moons to a billion dollars so I can buy Richard Milles and Lambos

Walrus · Aug 7, 2021

Well the London fork is complete and eth is a deflationary coin. Pretty amazing Vitalik can roll that stuff out live with literally billions on the line. ETH as well as btc having a bull run but I fear this the federal will make no distinction between POS and POW crypto so all crypto will just be a killer to the environment, create fud and sink it as we clap while billionaires launch rockets in the atmosphere.

pretty big step for eth. Pretty impressive accomplishment. Really shows the potential for many improvements to come and here I am thinking of selling as Congress might kill it as they don’t understand the difference in the power usage of different cryptos.

kev1976t · Aug 7, 2021

So unpredicatble, but after a bad few weeks and the negative publicity. let hope it goes on something of a bull run in the coming weeks

Walrus · Aug 7, 2021

kev1976t
So unpredicatble, but after a bad few weeks and the negative publicity. let hope it goes on something of a bull run in the coming weeks

Well BTC up 33% the past month. ETH up 24% the past week for the first time I think it may be ETH actually pushing up the crypto after the fork. So I think it’s safe to say “bull run” but the crypto legislation inserted into the infrastructure bill adds a bit of a twist. Not the taxes so much, it’s a very poorly worded piece of legislation that leaves too much interpretation open for “brokers” and other malarkey that doesn’t make sense. I have no issue with some legislation too many people are getting scammed in stable coins and defi I would just hope that it would be a little more sensible and clear. A few senators are pointing out it doesn’t make much sense and suggesting it be addressed in its own bill or clear up the language but I have no idea how it will play out, all markets hate uncertainty that’s why I’m a little perplexed by this current movement

Walrus · Aug 7, 2021

Sorry I should clarify the London hard fork is not complete, the first in the phase is complete. I was overly excited momentarily lost control due the the joyous occasion, will seek therapy to prevent any further overly joyous moments which can cause me to get ahead of myself. I have also changed my avatar to a Picasso painting, Picasso was a cool dude so I think we got this all sorted out now thanks for understanding. I got into ethereum when most people used to say (what’s that) TBH most still do but like Virginia Slims it’s come a long way baby

Doc Savage · Aug 7, 2021

Walrus
Well BTC up 33% the past month. ETH up 24% the past week for the first time I think it may be ETH actually pushing up the crypto after the fork. So I think it’s safe to say “bull run” but the crypto legislation inserted into the infrastructure bill adds a bit of a twist. Not the taxes so much, it’s a very poorly worded piece of legislation that leaves too much interpretation open for “brokers” and other malarkey that doesn’t make sense. I have no issue with some legislation too many people are getting scammed in stable coins and defi I would just hope that it would be a little more sensible and clear. A few senators are pointing out it doesn’t make much sense and suggesting it be addressed in its own bill or clear up the language but I have no idea how it will play out, all markets hate uncertainty that’s why I’m a little perplexed by this current movement

I have been enjoying this latest move up while simultaneously watching the poorly worded crypto regulatory amendment to the US infrastructure bill. Like you, I'm worried this could stall the current upward momentum. Just when we caught a break!

I agree that ETH is likely the axe right now - at least much more of a price driver than it has been in the past. I am more than happy to let Ether pull the rest of the crypto market up. In addition to BTC and ETH, I'm in several other altcoins that could make a tidy profit if this keeps going for a while.

Walrus · Aug 8, 2021

Doc Savage
I have been enjoying this latest move up while simultaneously watching the poorly worded crypto regulatory amendment to the US infrastructure bill. Like you, I'm worried this could stall the current upward momentum. Just when we caught a break!

I agree that ETH is likely the axe right now - at least much more of a price driver than it has been in the past. I am more than happy to let Ether pull the rest of the crypto market up. In addition to BTC and ETH, I'm in several other altcoins that could make a tidy profit if this keeps going for a while.

Ya me to, I got into the “solid” APY coins I could find with research the then have probably 20 other alt-coins or as I like to call them “shit coins” as I don’t even know the capabilities of many of them but I acquired the majority of them through air drops and other means so they cost me very little and some have done amazingly well but I figure the bottom could drop out at any moment. I do whoever have an appreciation for Maker Dao but it’s had a few issues along the way. So that is up substantially, percentage wise at least it’s not like I have a lot of it. No Lamborghini or anything. Just funny to see something you got for free have these massive moves. I’m thinking of trimming most of them and put them in all the small sphere of things I somewhat understand, like sushiswap or whatever it is, don’t even know how I ended up with it. So many “the next big thing” floating around most built on eth that kind of tells me what i need to know. I see projects like polygon and others than look interesting but the get rich quick stuff is usually just getting someone else rich quick

Doc Savage · Aug 8, 2021

Walrus
Ya me to, I got into the “solid” APY coins I could find with research the then have probably 20 other alt-coins or as I like to call them “shit coins” as I don’t even know the capabilities of many of them but I acquired the majority of them through air drops and other means so they cost me very little and some have done amazingly well but I figure the bottom could drop out at any moment. I do whoever have an appreciation for Maker Dao but it’s had a few issues along the way. So that is up substantially, percentage wise at least it’s not like I have a lot of it. No Lamborghini or anything. Just funny to see something you got for free have these massive moves. I’m thinking of trimming most of them and put them in all the small sphere of things I somewhat understand, like sushiswap or whatever it is, don’t even know how I ended up with it. So many “the next big thing” floating around most built on eth that kind of tells me what i need to know. I see projects like polygon and others than look interesting but the get rich quick stuff is usually just getting someone else rich quick

Polka Dot, Chainlink, Monero, and Stellar Lumens are my altcoins right now. I sold some of my ETH after the last runup (missed the top, unfortunately) and bought the Alts on the big pull back. I might make out ok.

Polka Dot is my biggest mover at the moment - up 35% today from my purchase several weeks ago. If ETH and BTC can make those same moves relatively soon, I'll really be happy.

Walrus · Aug 8, 2021

Oh cool I’m with you on stellar I think that has some true utility and I got it at around a nickel. Do have a little monero and polka dot. TBH those I’m considering turning into ETH. I’m not gonna talk negatively about them it’s just that I haven’t studied them much and for me I like being in things I have some grasp of. Stellar a definite hold though I did spend time reading up on that.