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So many variables---a lot of Day-Date models, and "vgc" can mean different things to different people. Do you care if the watch has been polished to remove scratches?--a collector might, but a casual wearer might not.
Assuming you mean the 231.10.42.22.03.001, which is what you originally queried, it seems like there's a preowned one (on Chrono24) in the UK now for about 6300GBP (7900 USD). There's also a new one (on eBay) here in the states for about 5800GBP (7400USD). Both look authentic from the photos, but with Chrono24 and eBay, you're assuming a certain amount of risk (with some measure of guarantee from the sites, but it can be chancy).
For that particular watch, that seems to be about the going price---it's an expensive piece because it's discontinued and sought-after. I'd imagine you could negotiate down to 5000-to-5500GBP, but who knows. I think sellers might rather not lower the price too much, even if the watch sits for a long time, because they know a buyer will come along eventually.
All that said, in my personal opinion, that's a lot of money for a stainless steel watch from a mass-producing SWATCH brand. Everybody has to decide for themselves, but I would have a hard time justifying that price for that watch. I'd be inclined to set an automated alert and wait for one to come along (maybe when the market softens) for closer to 3k. That's what it'd be worth to me.
I saw the pre owned AT on Chrono 24. However at £6,199 they've asking a similar price as unworn models on the site, which seems mad to me.
I'd be willing to go to near £4k for a good blue dial day-date AT in the UK.
Like both of those watches but feel they have two fairly different vibes and functions. The AT is a youthful and toolish go-anywhere-do-anything, everyday watch—a complete collection unto itself. The 1948 is more formal (maybe even downright “dressy,” not that you couldn’t wear it with jeans), and I feel like it couldn’t be a one-off for most people. It really depends on what else you have, maybe?
As far as long-term collectibility goes, I’d imagine the AT will fare better (even if it never becomes super valuable) since the vintage reissue thing is fun but rarely enduring.