Unless the bear gets the watch in which case they will be tracking your wrist for a few days

 

Haven’t read the article, but I’m fairly certain it is misleading to people like us based on the comments in this thread.

The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry has not yet published its 2019 look-back (but the monthly 2019 reports are now all published). Still, a look at 2018’s look back will show why the article discussed on this thread is a bit misleading:

https://www.fhs.swiss/pdf/a_180112_a.pdf
https://www.fhs.swiss/pdf/communique_180112_a.pdf
In all, the article being discussed in this thread is maybe misleading to those of us on this forum, because the article is about unit sales, and we in this forum more than others may tend to forget the Swiss watch industry is largely in terms of units a quartz industry.

Key points:

• in 2018, there were 23.7MM Swiss units sold, but 16.2MM of those were electronic/quartz watches - leaving only 7.5MM units being mechanical Swiss watches

• Comparing 7.5MM Swiss mechanical units sold in 2018 to 31MM Apple Watches sold in 2019, (even before the Federation releases its 2019 look-back) you can be certain Apple sold far more units than did Swiss mechanical watches (by unit) in 2019.

• In 2018 as with prior recent years, the number of Swiss watch exports by unit declined overall (-2.3%), but due to quartz unit decline (-5%), despite mechanical unit increase (+3.9%). 2019 probably follows this same pattern (reduction in unit numbers due to quartz, despite increase in mechanical) as it’s remained consistent for the past several years.

• despite the overall decline in units, exports by value were up (6.1%) overall, and in both quartz (4.2%) and mechanical (6.6%); so, in 2018, despite selling significantly fewer quartz units, quartz sales by value were up significantly (meanwhile, mechanicals were up both ways). This one will be interesting to watch in 2019 look-back, as it may be that smart watches are both reducing the number of quartz sales while also increasing the willingness to pay more for more sophisticated quartz watches?

• and here, to me, is the real kicker to understanding how smartwatches like the Apple Watch are hitting the Swiss market: the dynamics above (reductions in quartz but increases in mechanical, increase in value for both quartz and mechanical, etc.) are dynamics driven almost entirely out of price-point categories: declines result from units below the CHF 500 price point, while in the over CHF 500 category both units and values increased significantly (up 7.5% and 8.1%, respectively) - so, this is also a 2019 dynamic that will be interesting to see when the look-back is released

In all, maybe good and bad news for some of us on this forum: the maybe bad news is, Apple Watches have been FAR outselling Swiss mechanical watches (by units) long before this article came out; the good news is, despite smartwatches (not just Apple), Swiss mechanicals have been increasing in both export units and value.

One other parting ray of sunshine: while Swiss quartz units outsell mechanical by a factor of >3:1, in contrast by value Swiss mechanical outsell quartz by roughly 5:1.

 

Many thanks for this detailed post, the nuances are very interesting. So it's possible that people are deciding to buy an Apple watch instead of a similarly (or lower) priced Swiss watch (mostly quartz). Obviously one can't conclude that definitively from the statistics, but this is a plausible scenario that seems intuitively reasonable (and matches my anecdotal observations). And at the same time, sales of more expensive mechanical watches are increasing in both units and value.

 

I’d add two other observations:

First, just because a person buys an Apple Watch does not mean they are foregoing a purchase of a mechanical watch - I know or read of plenty of collectors who have an Apple Watch but are still buying mechanicals, too. So, just because people are buying more blenders does not mean they’re not also buying refrigerators.

Second, when looking at units sold of smartwatches, remember they have a shelf life of a year or two, compared to mechanicals with decades-long utility. It should be unsurprising that there are more units of loaves of bread sold than units of butter knives.

 

Well said

 

APPLEWATCHFORUMS.NET August 23, 2073

Poster #1: Did anyone see the '23 Apple Watch v.63 on googleBay? The auction ends in 3 days, and it is currently at only $73,949,763.00 USD. The dial looks a little off. What are our thoughts?

Poster #2: Beautiful watch. I wish I could afford it.

Poster #3: Beautiful? That thing is a train wreck! The electronic fonts on the dial are way off. I think this is a rescreen.

Poster #4: Definitely a rescreen. And the electronic lume subroutine has been recoded.

Poster #2: Sorry. I am new to this, and still learning.

Poster #5: The serial number on the microprocessor is out of accepted range. I think it may be from a v.87. I would not buy this without a EoA.

Poster #4: I think AppleWatchMaster101 just updated the serial range, so it may actually be valid. But agree an EoA is needed.

Poster #6: What the heck happened to the case? It looks like someone opened it with a chisel.

Poster #4: Well, it is a 50-year-old tool watch. So you can't expect it to look brand new and be all original.

Poster #7: It is a franken. The screen and processor do not match the case. The strap is from a Samsung, and has LG end links. The value is limited to the worth of the copper wiring.

Poster #2: I am so glad I found this forum. You all are a wealth of information.

Poster #6: Hey, Poster #2 -- I suggest you download a copy of AppleWatch Only. There is 500 pages of information in there that will keep you from making a costly mistake. And it was created by some of our own forum members.

Poster #2: Thanks -- I just downloaded. Guess I know what I will be reading for the next week or two.

Poster #8: Anyone get a call from the Apple Boutique asking for deposits on the next LE?

Poster #5: Damn, another LE? What is this one for -- because it is Wednesday?

Poster #9: Apple is diluting their brand with all of these LEs. Pitiful.

Poster #8: Well I have the LE that is programmed with a Snoopy screen. I was fortunate to pick it up when no one wanted them. Now they are like a license to print money.

Poster #4: Actually there is an Apple App for printing money, so no need to get the Snoopy LE.

 

So I’ve noticed my right hand is slowly being clarksonized. Clarksonization is the slow accumulation of non watch bracelets appearing on your non watch wrist as you get older. Named after the British tv presentor from which this affliction was first noticed on a global scale.


That being said. I’ve got no desire to get notifications on something that needs to be charged daily to every three days. I do like the fitness tracking and HR tracking. So I went with the base Fitbit with HR and hide it with other bracelets. The fitbit goes a week or so and is quickly recharged when I am sitting at a computer.

this leaves my other hand free for a watch.

 

Now with FH’s 2019 full stats in hand, I think it easier to see that - far as OF members are concerned - that article is comparing apples to oranges, and has little to do with our interests in watches. They can be found here (country by value) and here (regions by value and units) and most interesting here (type of product by both unit and value year-over-year since 2013).

A few FH stats highlights as they relate to the misleading press on Apple Watch outselling the Swiss watch industry (my color commentary in italics):

• Overall exports by value continue to climb (up 2.6% to 20.5B francs) while exports by units continue to fall drastically (down 13.1%), explained by a continued trend since at least 2000 of high-value mechanical wristwatches selling more, and lower value watches - especially electronic watches - selling far less every year:



• Specifically, in the 2019 wrist watch sector, mechanical watches were only ~35% of Swiss sales by unit (7.2M of 20.6M), but ~83% by value (17B of 20.5B CHF), but total mechanical sales by unit dipped slightly in 2019 (-250K units) while rising by value (+~700M CHF): this continues a broader trend toward not just more mechanicals, but more higher-end mechanicals in the >3K CHF categories (which category by both unit and value have trended upward along with the prevalence of smartwatches):



• By value, the top 5 markets remained the same in 2019, most increasing, but 3 of those 5 are potentially subject to market effects of the coronavirus that could have significant impact on the industry in 2020:



The 2019 dip in HK shown above was caused by pre-coronavirus political unrest, and was offset in 2019 by gains in China; but 2020 has the potential to further hit HK, while also decreasing China sales (not to mention Japan, and the rest of the Asian market that collectively represents >50% of Swiss watch exports). But, if these negative effects come to be, I’d suspect they could hit electronic/smartwatch supply chains just as hard? In any event, it wont be smartwatches that explain any 2020 downturn in Swiss mechanical watches.

• Finally, the 2019 press release contains the following curious and unexplained note: “The growth in value was almost exclusively due to mechanical, precious metal or bimetal watches priced at over 3,000 francs (export price). Other price segments, quartz watches and steel products, in particular, declined in 2019.” Hmmm:



The data released by FH to date does not allow one to break out mechanical from quartz steel units, and so differentiate whether steel products have declined only because steel quartz unit exports have declined, or instead because steel mechanical exports also declined in either number or value. But (whatever mechanical steel watches did year-over-year by value), there was an increase in units of total precious metal/bi-metal exports at the high end value (shown by the ratio of units to value) - showing the same trend of watches flourishing at higher values.

In all: people are buying more (and more expensive) mechanical Swiss watches, and meanwhile if smartwatches otherwise generally work to only replace low-end Invicta/Fossil and quartz wristwatches, then I think everyone’s wrists are better for it.

I’d be interested if anyone’s seen the VALUE of Apple Watch’s 31M units in 2019, so as to compare those $ to Swiss mechanicals $$ - after all, units-shmunits as far as business is concerned...

 

I had no idea you were that young, I would have taken you for a card carrying member of the Dick Tracy club. It was a two-way wrist TV. And it always had lightning bolts coming out of the top when he used it.

I see a 4Ocean bracelet there. If you see an UW shot of my SMPO, the orange string is a 4Ocean bracelet as well. We bought like $600 of them prior to our last dive trip and gave them out to each of the boat crew as well as several guests.

 

I didn’t realize that - interesting relationship. Who’s the parent company?

 

Fossil

 

Bedrock manufacturing in Texas. Not the same Bedrock than the Detroit Bedrock although they have a partnership.