@Tony C. Here is my friend’s response …not very exciting or esoteric🙁
“Yes, check eBay. Generally speaking, I’ve seen a decline in the value of model trains. I think there aren’t as many buyers as there once was.”
I think its due to attrition of those who once would buy as well, have noted the same thing with Vintage and Veteran cars with many of them hitting the market once the owner dies and not many buyers which is reflected in a dropping price to buy.
I dunno enough about the collector market for model trains to have any authority on the subject, but as a parallel has been drawn with the veteran/vintage/classic car market ( something I do know a bit about)
Demand is dependent upon relatability, quality, rarity, originality, use ability, desirability & history…… these are the boxes to be ticked off on the car in questions metaphorical bingo card.
Just being old is not really enough.
The car has to be relatable, so the buyer has to be able to relate to the car in some way they may have always aspired to one as a kid or in their younger years before they were in a financial position to buy one, Or either someone in their family or they knew someone who had one. The problem with ticking this box is the amount of people with a living memory dwindles with attrition over time.
Quality is always going to bring a premium, good original condition, and good sympathetic restoration work is desirable. A total shit box will be too much like hard work and too expensive to fix. Time can be a factor here too, with spares, knowledge and the skills required to work on these cars
Rarity plays a large part too. A car that was only made by the handful is going to be harder to find than something that was mass produced by the millions, mind you if you take a car like the MK1 Ford Escort where in the UK and Europe the values of these cars is off the scale these days, as even though they were stamped out in their millions they are still very relatable to many and a high attrition rate amongst the cars themselves has reduced the supply considerably, high spares demand has resulted in some new parts being made and the the knowledge base for their repair/.restoration grows due to demand. But as the relatability of these cars drops off as those who are in the age demographic to find them desirable drop off the perch, the values of these cars will become static and then decline with the passage of time. They will still retain sme value, but they won’t command the relative values they do today.
Amongst the Escort’s contemporary market competitors some such as the Morris Marina wee never considered desirable so even though they’re a rarity these days there is little demand for them and their value suffers accordingly. They are just old, and outside of a very small amount of marque enthusiasts they aren’t desirable.
Originality should go without saying… they’re only original once! Some changes that can be reversed, such as if the car can be easily put back into the original condition buy unbolting the “improvements” or modifications and simply replacing them w the original parts then little damage to the car’s value wil result, especially if the individual car’s parts were retained and put aside for a later date.
Some departures from originality are actually desirable if they correct known failures in the design and improve reliability and.use ability. A case for binning the 6 volt electrics on a VW Beatle in favour of a 12 volt system is. an example of this.
Use ability, how often you can use the car will play its part, something that is still relatively safe to use and can keep up with modern traffic conditions will help maintain values.
After all if the damned thing makes a concerted attempt to kill or maim you every time you use it, its appeal will quickly wear off. Similarly if it’s too slow or constantly overheats you will soon not bother to want to use it.
Desirability, what makes a car desirable is style and/or performance, take an early Ford Mustang as an example, the early Mustang were basically the same car under the skin as the Ford Falcon of the era, but the Mustang is much prettier and stylish than a Falcon sedan so that effects the values accordingly, at to that the difference between a base model Mustang with a 6cyl engine 3speed automatic transmission and drum brakes and a Shelby Mustang with it’s superior performance, history, rarity etc. The Shelby Mustang is always going to be the one everyone wants.
Other cars maybe more desirable because they have beautiful coach built roadster or coupe bodywork instead of boring staid sedan/saloon bodywork, the former is always going to bring a premium over the latter’s more practical format.
Which brings us to history, the car’s individual history can be a factor, it the car has a well documented history, this will always hold value over one that has little, now if that history has famous owners or a competition history…..all the better.
Even if the individual car has no competition hisTory but is the same model/ type and specification of one that is for instance a major race or championship winner then that association will rub off and can increase desirability, thereby boosting values, because people will want to have one just like the winner.
Now I would imagine only some of these factors woul directly apply to the model train market and in place of those not applicable will be other factors such as who was the craftsman that made it.
Factors such as usability won’t make all that much difference to a model train and they won’t really have much of a history, apart from the actual train they’re based upon.
I can however see a more parallel comparison between the collector watch market and veteran/vintage/classic car markets.
