1016 Valuation

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Cass Mastern

·Oct 11, 2020

I'm hitting a bit of a wall here and thought I'd consult the wisdom of the forum. I have an acquaintance who has owned a 1016 Explorer since new, and I'm looking to buy it from him. He's worn it daily (or close to it) for over 50 years, and as such it's not exactly in collector grade condition, but it appears to be all original, apart from a later bracelet. Currently we're quite far apart on a price, as I explained to him that the price he had in mind would be more appropriate for a gilt glossy Explorer than a matte dial. But I'm beginning to second-guess myself. What do you all think a fair (non-retail) price would be for a well worn 1016?

 

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Dan S

·Oct 11, 2020

Very hard to give a price on a watch like this from a single blurry photo and it would be helpful for you to share a bit more. Why don't you tell us where the two of you are at price-wise, and post a lot more photos. And if you've done some pricing research (e.g. using auction sales), maybe you can provide some links and numbers.

 

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JwRosenthal

·Oct 11, 2020

Service parts (like the bracelet) are common on real-world-worn watches if they ever went back to Rolex for a service. If you are comfortable having a daily wearer and not a "collector" (with which I would have no problem), then this would be a nice watch. But I agree with Dan, we can speculate all day, but without knowing more details and having better pics to know the actually condition- assements are just guesses- which doesn't help you.
If the divide is that great, it may not be worth souring the relationship.

And just from that pic- the case has been pretty well polished soft and beaten again, and the bracelet is ready for a rebuild. Both can be repaired (laser welding of the case if you choose), but those costs needs to be accounted for in the price

 

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Cass Mastern

·Oct 11, 2020

Thanks Dan and JW. I only have a few blurry photos from the seller - with the pandemic I haven't been able to evaluate the watch in person or take my own photos. Here's another that shows the case profile, as you can see I think it safely qualifies as over-polished.

I have no problem with a well-worn watch, but obviously don't want to overpay. I've wanted a 1016 for years so I've tried to follow the market, but prices have risen so astronomically that I may not be up to pace. An example from the same year (with a better case but worse dial) sold this week on ebay for 9k. I had the value pegged slightly below that.

 

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JwRosenthal

·Oct 11, 2020

Yeah, case is a little soft

So you put the value at under $9k, where is he?
I wouldn't be happy with the case on this one and for condition assesment, I would rate it as fair at best. Sure, you could get it redone, but that's gonna add a few $$$$ to the "all-in" price, not to mention the cost of a service which will add a few more $$$. Then, the watch will lack originality, but it will look nice- how does that gel with the prices you are seeing out there for watches that have service parts or have been redone and not original examples?
I know it's easy to get sucked into the excitement of having a watch like this offered to you by someone you know, but is this the right one for you? We aren't taking about a $500 watch here- this is serious money and you don't want to throw good money after bad, or end up selling it at a loss in the future if you can't live with the flaws.
Most importantly, if you feel you can't have a frank discussion with the seller about the condition issues and negotiate the price to somewhere closer to reality- then just say thanks for the opportunity and move on. No good will come from ruffling feathers.

 

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Cass Mastern

·Oct 11, 2020

Thanks for the help and reassurance JW, I had all the same concerns you mentioned. His original asking price was north of 15k. I walked him through the condition issues I'd noted and sent some comparable examples currently for sale to show how I'd arrived at my price. He's invited me to make another offer, but as you mentioned I didn't want to get carried away by the excitement.

 

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JwRosenthal

·Oct 12, 2020

$15k- I doubt he would think $8k+/- would be even close and not an insult. Frankly it would need to be closer to $6-7k for me to even entertain all it would take to get it where I would want it- which would be probably $9-10k invested by the time you're done. With watches like this it's all about originality+condition, not originality or condition. This watch lost its collector value about 3 trips to the buffing wheel ago. Now it's worth the sum of the parts- which is how it should be evaluated.
But, somone may like it the way it is and think it's worth $15k- they are indeed out there- and if he wants to take the time to broker it off, he may find that person one day.

 

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Davidt

·Oct 12, 2020

To be clear - are you talking in US$? This is an international forum, based in Aus so it’s best to be clear on currency.

I agree with some of the comments above though. This will only ever be a daily wearer, not a collector piece and no amount of restoration will change that. I think the seller has an unrealistic view of their watch and the market.

 

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Cass Mastern

·Oct 12, 2020

Yes sorry this is USD.

 

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bazamu

·Oct 12, 2020

I'm going to disagree with a few of the other opinions here - the case has certainly been polished, but it's far from a lost cause and the lugs on 1016s were never as thick as Subs/GMTs to begin with, so I think the "dire" nature of the case is possibly being exaggerated here. The dial looks to be flawless and the original hands show perfectly matching lume as well. It reminds me a lot of my own (see link below), and for full context, I paid ~$8,500 all-in (including servicing/replacement crystal) in 2017 off eBay. I have never thought about having the case redone and have been offered low-teens for it with no questions asked. While the seller may be slightly high, I think you certainly have room to meet him in the middle. Would be a killer daily wearer and even better since you know the prior owner!

http://www.bazamu.com/rolex-explorer-ref-1016/

 

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t_swiss_t

·Oct 12, 2020

Agree with @bazamu - case looks slightly polished but the lugs don't seem far off how they came. The fact that most examples with replacement bracelets have the longer Sub/GMT spring bar pins make the people think the lugs are whittled down when they're not. I think this is easily above the $10k mark on the open market and think 12k USD is appropriate.

 

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airansun

·Oct 12, 2020

I agree with @bazamu .

From my following these on eBay, I’d say that it’s worth around $11k to $12k, maybe more, depending on better photos.

The dial looks good, the hands are right and I don’t think it’s a worn bar of soap yet. To me, it’s actually somewhat hard to judge degree of polishing on these, due to the lug shape.

 

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Cass Mastern

·Oct 12, 2020

Thanks for your responses everyone! I'm glad this has prompted such a productive discussion. Sounds like I may need to reconsider my offer, hopefully pending some further inspection in person.

I have one more photo of the back side of the case - don't know if that changes things one way or another. I was comparing it to my 1603, which is in quite good condition, and the lugs definitely seem a bit thinner and pointier on this one. But maybe I'm judging it too harshly.

 

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JwRosenthal

·Oct 12, 2020

Glad there has been some counterpoint on this one- it's why I love this place, multiple eyes on a watch makes for a far broader picture.
To clarify my earlier points- I'm not saying run away from this watch, but take the condition into assessment when arriving at a fair price- and gauge if the seller is also on the same page- it's not worth ruining a friendship over a watch. He may have an emotional investment in this watch as he's owned if for so long. You are looking at cold hard numbers and comps- there is no emotional investment on your side, so you may come off as cold and calculating to him.
If you find it attractive and the case condition isn't a detriment to you, then proceed accordingly.
If it's a collector grade watch with razor sharp case that you are after, then this one will never make you happy. But as a daily wear, it could be a nice watch.

 

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t_swiss_t

·Oct 12, 2020

The lugs do look worse from the back than from the front. Hence the need for more/better pictures. Need to revise my estimate down, or at least couch it to say I would pay closer to 10 if the lugs from the last picture are truer to life than the earlier pictures. Here’s a picture of a nice case from the back from HQM.

 

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larrylush

·Oct 12, 2020

bazamu

I'm going to disagree with a few of the other opinions here - the case has certainly been polished, but it's far from a lost cause and the lugs on 1016s were never as thick as Subs/GMTs to begin with, so I think the "dire" nature of the case is possibly being exaggerated here. The dial looks to be flawless and the original hands show perfectly matching lume as well. It reminds me a lot of my own (see link below), and for full context, I paid ~$8,500 all-in (including servicing/replacement crystal) in 2017 off eBay. I have never thought about having the case redone and have been offered low-teens for it with no questions asked. While the seller may be slightly high, I think you certainly have room to meet him in the middle. Would be a killer daily wearer and even better since you know the prior owner!

http://www.bazamu.com/rolex-explorer-ref-1016/

now that's how you take a picture

 

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Cass Mastern

·Oct 14, 2020

Thanks to everyone who shared their perspective, it's what makes OF so great! It looks like we may be able to work something out after all. I'll post updates if I do end up getting it.

 

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Cass Mastern

·Oct 19, 2020

Well gents after some more back and forth and a few hard swallows, we settled on 10k, which was a stretch for a regular guy like me, but seems like a fair deal for both parties. I picked up the watch over the weekend and am quite pleased with it, I don't think the case is too far gone and the dial and hands are just wonderful. Also keeping very good time, even though the non-hacking movement makes it difficult to get an exact reading. The dial seems to be fading from the center out too which is quite interesting - I'm eager to see if it changes in the coming years. I'll likely send the bracelet (a 78360 with 580 endlinks) off to Rolliworks in the next week or so.

The gentleman I bought it from bought the watch new at the Peninsula Hotel in Hong Kong in either 1966 or 67. For the next few years after he worked in Singapore, and wore it there (along with a GMT he owned but has long since sold) before bringing it back to the States after the Vietnam War.

Thanks to everyone for your help, and feel free to chime in with any more thoughts or advice!

PS: My cat seems to approve, so that's a nice plus as well 😀

Edited: Oct 19, 2020

 

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t_swiss_t

·Oct 19, 2020

I would make sure to ask him for a written and signed letter of provenance stating his name, the watch model and serial, and his history buying and wearing the watch. If possible, getting pictures of him wearing the watch over the years would be good too. As much to demonstrate traceable provenance as to see and hear cool stories.

Also, would recommend having a watchmaker look it over, I can’t tell if there is some oil/moisture damage around the center post or if that’s just the lighting.

 

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JwRosenthal

·Oct 19, 2020

Congrats! And it does look much better in your pics (direct sunlight) than the original pics- particularly the case. Glad you came to a sane price- it's a nice honest survivor and looks like it will be a pleasure to wear without fear of breathing on it the wrong way.