Hello everyone,

I've been looking at Omega models for a couple of years but never really got to buy a Speedy. I understand the magic that the hesalite model has for some people, or even the newer sapphire sandwich, but I do like the Dark Side of The Moon a lot more visually and in a way, am attracted to the newer materials/movement.

I'm considering the 311.92.44.51.01.007, which is the newer version with the titanium and ceramic foldover clasp (I find this more comfortable and less likely to be dropped, even without almost infinite adjustment like in other brands implementations):
https://www.omegawatches.com/watche...ch/omega-co-axial-chronograph/31192445101007/

I only have two other watches (an Aquaracer and a cheap ceramic fashion watch, which is pretty bad in general but did show me how well the case and bracelet resist scratches). Definitely not a collector, so the DSOTM would be a watch for daily use, but costing a lot more.

I'm by no means a wealthy guy, but at this point am finally able to afford it without burning a lot of my savings. Still, despite being something to enjoy everyday and probably keep for many years, it is still around 9000 Euros/$10k, so I cannot help looking at it from an investment point of view.

Investment is not the right term, as I'm not looking to make money, but I'd like to lose as little as possible in this imaginary "investment" of part of my savings.

So I'm trying to predict how the price of this model will evolve in the next years (let's think 5-10-20 for example).

Do you guys think it will depreciate a lot, or that it might end up retaining good value, since in a few aspects it is a first of its kind in the Speedmaster range? Any input from people who know these markets and pricing models would be great.

I know this is guessing, but what would you bet on? (I did research data about value/trends of speedmasters/Omega but there isn't much yet about these newer versions).

I've read someone commenting that they could become a highly valued classic and someone saying they would just be a passing fad of those "ceramic marketing gymnics that aren't even real speedmasters".

My main idea is of course enjoying it and using it daily, that's also why ceramic is preferred, as I'd like it to be a bit more resistant to daily minor scratches, desk-rubbing, etc and don't worry much about major impacts. Knowing myself, I'd baby the thing, but it would be good if it could last many years without looking too used, something I'd expect with the sapphire/ceramic/titanium combo.

Both because we like or watches to look immaculate, but also because I'm sure I'd see it as an emergency piggy bank, a small stock portfolio, in case I sell it used.

So thinking about the DSOTM purely from that point of view, what would be your predictions regarding its depreciation?

Getting repetitive now, but I'm having trouble with the idea of carrying around a watch worth as much as some used cars unless I know it can be converted back to decent money, should an (unlikely) rainy day come.

Cheers,
Nuno

Edits: Non native English speaker. Fixed some engrish.

 

Future value is very hard to predict.

Regarding depreciation, dsotm's are available on the secondary market for $8K or less.. cheapest one I saw within the last few months was ~$6900.. so, if you buy new, like a car, it drops as soon as it leaves the lot. Where it will be in 5, 10, 20 years..? I dunno.

 

If you buy the DSoTM at a retail authorized dealer, then it will depreciate a lot, like most new watches. Check prices for the DSoTM on Ebay, here on Omegaforums.net, watchrecon.com, chrono24.com and all the usual places and you will see what the current prices are for like-new used pieces as well as grey market new pieces, and you will see they are substantially less than the suggested retail price. Buying from a non-authorized dealer, or used from a private party has its trade-offs of course, that only you can decide. As for the future price of the DSoTM, I think the market has spoken, and prices will stay flat on this piece for a very long time, so I would not plan on any price appreciation anytime soon. It's not like what we've seen with vintage Speedy's over the last couple years.

 

Thanks for the input so far guys. I should add that I'm looking at buying it from a reputable grey market seller in the UK.

The price is lower than retail at ADs, not hugely but around 18% off. This shop gets the watches from ADs, so they come stamped by them and international warranty is valid.

 

You are making a mistake. It drops immediately to $6750-$7000 USD as soon as the package is opened. And can buy new for $7000-7400 USD.

And as far as collectibility, wish we all knew the future. I see Omega continuing the lineup with new models randomly and continuing to make the original so that could be looked at two ways. It's popular enough that it's making them money so it is liked by the masses which is always good for the future value but at the same time there are a huge amount of them in the wild which can hurt the future value. But all that said this watch is different being made out of ceramic. It will look brand new for much much longer than many other watches. I don't know how that will play on the future prices but I would assume it to be a good thing.

 

Indeed, that's what I would hope for. I guess I would be happy enough if prices do not drop for a few years after buying it, as that might at least limit depreciation.

Regarding the prices, I couldn't find anything even remotely close to $7000 USD here in Europe, if new and from a grey seller that guarantees an AD stamp for official warranty. That would be 6271 Euros, which is probably what the dealers pay for them. Add profit and 23% VAT tax and it gets a bit nastier. Still 18%-20% below Omega's recommended price in Europe, which for the 311.92.44.51.01.007 is 10.300 Eur (11.498 USD). The previous version without the new ceramic/titanium deployment clasp is a bit cheaper, but not much. Taxes don't make it easy to get good deals around here, unless you take big risks.

In any case, more that worrying about where to get it at the best price (work in progress) I'm more curious about how this model might retain its value over the years (compared to the current recommended retail price). I guess this is still uncertain.

But

 

I don't think it Wil do overly well as an 'investment'.

Then again, I assume not many thought 2998 Speedmasters were a good investment 20 years ago.

I generally say that if I can't afford to take up to a 50% hit on something, I cant afford it. If you break even or go into profit, well it just covers you for the times that you don't.

 

With the case being 44.25mm, and with the trend in watches getting smaller again, could this also further limit future values of this watch? I remember when 42 mm used to be BIG, and 40mm was still on the larger side of things.

 

The only modern luxury items that appreciate in price are those with lower production numbers than demand - it's simple economics. The DSOTM, while very cool, is not a limited-production model. Omega will produce as many as they can sell, keeping prices low on the secondary market. However, if you bought one at market level now, around US $7k, you might not lose much money going forward as I don't see these dropping much past maybe around $5k in a few years, after Omega has ceased production (or significantly updated the model). Still, after that, they won't go up in value unless suddenly the supply is cut short, or it becomes very difficult to source a good-condition example. With the scratch-resistant ceramic case, this may not be a situation that will come to pass!

 

That's a good way to look at it.

I might be wrong since I am not an Omega expert, but I got the impression that the DSoTM was somewhat different from the rest of the line when it appeared and being the first in that line could mean it would hold value better.

I'm very unlikely to sell it, but maybe due to my line of work, always tend to consider the worst-case-scenario even if not probable. Right now I can take the loss easily, but if for some reason in 1-5 years I'd have to convert it back to liquidity, it would be nice if it didn't lose as much value as a high end video card, cell phone or similar ;-)

I know TAG is very different from Omega in pricing policies, but I got an Aquaracer 500M Ceramic about 6 months ago and the price new already dropped a lot. At the moment I'd get perhaps 50% out of it. Still, I do like this watch, but no matter how nice, it feels a lot less special that a DSoTM.

 

Interest. And the ceramic aspect is curious. I've thought about it as a possible advantage if the watch remains in good shape for many years, but what would apply to my unit would probably apply to many others, indeed leaving used ones in good shape easier to find.

Also thought about the size trend, but it seems to be somewhat cyclical, plus I've heard these 44.25 wear a lot smaller than it sounds due to the short lugs (still have to try one live. Should be OK, but I don't have superhero wrists).

 

If I were you and wanted a daily wearer that could also be an investment (or at least hold its value) I would save some money off the DSOTM and find a nice example of a 145.022-69. Buy the Dark Side when you can afford a luxury that will lose value.

Or, spend the same amount of money on a top-condition 145.022-68 Transitional.

 

Hi there, here a very personal story:

When I was a young student, in 1990 (way before internet) I was shopping around for my first good watch. I lived on the countryside, so whenever I could go to the big city, I spend hours ohhhing and ahhhing with my nose flat against the AD shop windows.

I finally settled (after working 2 or 3 summers) for a nice Breitling Chronomat which after 26 years I still have.


But the "olymp" at this time was the IWC Da Vinci (PP/PA/VC didnt have as good marketing it seems). They even had a coffee-table book that I got ... the watch was more expensive than my parents car. IIRC U$7k, again, late 1980ies!

the watch was portrayed as the best there is on this planet and it surroundings and with a calendar that needs to be changed for the first time 96 years down the line (or so) .... and it came in YG,







or also - (topping!!!! even YG) - the best of the best version was in white and black engineering-ceramic:







If given the chance, I would probably have donated an incredible juvenile, late 1980s kidney for the white ceramic version


.... today ... not so much ...


So, there was a lesson I learned over the past 2-3 decades: Only pay ridiculous amounts for GOLD or PLATINUM, but not for some flavor-of-the-year engineering material (be it ceramics, carbonfibre, unobtainium or compressed unicorn dung )

The problem is that todays latest and greates might be tomorrow's made-in-china-craptastic material extensively used by Hublot, Invicta and Seagull

Along the same lines .... 20 years ago the visual that the phrase "SKELETON WATCH" triggered was:



today if you mention SKELETON WATCH ... I get this visual:



I would bite myself in the sack had I spent a fortune 30 years ago in a skeletonized Breguet, etc... just to find at least 2 gay hairdressers wearing skeletonized watches as well, let alone Dave down at the muffler shop who has one for weekends and "weddings with ties" ...



so, another example of one year's gold is next year's ...

If you can sink $10k into a watch, then for dog's sake pick up the best 321 you can get, and you might really do well in the next 20 years.

"Experiments" in watchlandia are a not-so-safe-bet in my opinion.

The DSOTM is def. an experiment

I do like its looks quite a lot ... but then again, I also liked the look of a white-bathroom-tile-ceramic DaVinci quite a lot ... and the uber-super-out-of-this-world movement is a souped up 7750!!!!

cheers, Al

 

OP, in my experience, it would be very unusual for a standard production run to retain as much value as I think you're aiming for. Generally, limited edition status helps this to become reality, but even then, certain models still manage to buck that trend.

I think I know the shop you're referring to and they're great. However, it's also common knowledge that they can supply the DSOTM for that price, so that just means the second hand prices are valued off the grey market prices pretty much.

So somebody paying full retail will lose more than you would if you flipped the watch a year down the line, but you will still lose if that makes sense.

If Omega stop production of the original DSOTM, it would help it to become a "classic", but as it's such a big seller, it's doubtful that this would happen. The fact they now have various colours so readily available is also another reason why values won't hold amazingly well IMO.

The way to think about the watch is to just buy it and enjoy it for what it is, not what value it will hold.

 

Guys !
I have to agree with al128. Timepieces are like Jewelleries. The higher the Gold content the better it holds its value followed by platinum , Pure Silver Sterling ...maybe with some exceptions though. A Patek Philip stainless steel Bracelet is more valuable then.. say an Omega or Rolex for the same weight. i believe if your watch has Gold content then wait till the Greenback drops & Watch
( No pun intended ! ) your Time piece value soar ! Ask NASA to send Matt Damon to Mars wearing an Omega Speedmaster Moonwatch Ceramic ..pitch black, sedna black, black black, vintage black ...whateverrrr.....
( Real Life This Time ok ? ...Yeah bring along a sack of potatoes too !!! ) or Matthew McCanoughey strapping a Globemaster Master Chronometer actually travelling to the Edge of Our Galaxy..We All know what Will Happen right... ? Like They say -The Rest is History !

 

A new watch is not an investment. Buy it to enjoy, but to assume this is an investment is a huge mistake.

 

I think Omega diluted this watch when they continued with all their releases on the various color schemes. I would love to own a GS or BS (even the titanium coaxial speedy) as these are all watches I really like.

On several occasions I wanted to pull the trigger on a titanium speedy. Instead I bought an Ed White.

I will ador the titanium speedy from a distance.

 

Holding its value has noting to do with gold content...for that matter the actual value of the gold in a typical watch is minimal.
Watches that have appreciated over time have several things in common...but just one of the key factors is scarcity. Some of the watches that are most valuable today, were just made in small numbers...and since most were used as tools, fewer survived in perfect condition. These are the watches that command top dollar today. The mint examples...and some of the most desirable have no gold or platinum.

 

The problem that pops up when a used item is offered for sale is that the prospective buyer knows you want to sell it, and sets out to find out how badly you want to sell it! Hence, low ball offers! And, in offering anything for sale, you are competing with every one else who is selling the same item! When there's more than one for sale, you are selling into a buyer's market! So, you buy one for $7,500.00 2016 dollars, and sell it in 2026 for $10,000.00 dollars. You've lost money! By 2026, your 2016 dollar is worth, say, $12,500.00! Selling it in depreciated dollars costs you money! The GOOD news is that, your 2016 car you paid $50,000.00 for, will be worth, say $2,500.00 in 2026. Buy watches!

 

If I had 10 k ... I would get a decent 105.003 for 7-8 k and get 145.022 69 or 7x ...for 2-3 k ...
Yow would have 2 pretty different looking watches 40 vs 42mm, straight vs curved lug, 2 different movements in a 321 and 861.... You know they are not going to make any more 1964 s or 1969 s ....who know how many dark side of moon...or variation on variation