It's impossible to predict which models will be collectible. Often it's references that weren't popular at the time that end up being sought after. However in this case I think it's the black dial. It was made for a shorter period of time, has the sword hands rather than the much more commonly seen skeleton hands, and overall looks much more similar to the late 60's Seamaster 300.
You can't wear a box so I don't think that will add an awful lot of interest in the case of the Speedmaster. Of the 2 SMPs, the sword hands black dial will likely remain more popular and valuable but neither will be anywhere near as desirable as the Auto equivalents. Both autos and quartz models are mass market watches made in large quantities though so lack of supply won't push demand up like it does with (some of) the limited release Speedmasters, they may increase from here but probably not massively so.
Interesting thing about the Blue wave dial quartz model it is THE omega used at the start of the current partnership - the auto was only used in later movies. Personally I think that makes it a little interesting. However overall neither the Auto or the Quartz have been appreciating in any meaningful way in past few years. As I own both, it would be nice if either took a bounce - who knows maybe 90s nostalgia will kick in soon good thing about the auto is as its based on the ETA movement will probably be able to get serviced with relative ease in years to come. At somepoint the quartz movements will next to impossible to find. As for the black sword hands - always wanted one of those and I always wanted to try one of these speedy style bracelets on a Seamaster.
I would not hold your breath too much choosing between two quartz Seamasters. They will not appreciate the way '60s SM300s have skyrocketed. For many, quartz Seamasters are the everyday beater watches to wear while their more collectible watches see more limited duties.
The 1538 quartz movement is AFAIK also ETA based by the way. I think the ETA 255.461. While I agree that quartz models do seem to become obselete quicker than autos, both are based on mass market ETA designs manufactured probably in the 100s of thousands.
yep, quartz also ETA based. and good point, probable that you will find an unused 255.461 into the distant future if you are willing to look. and more than likely a straight swap. as an aside I do think these SMPs are underrated - even for the bracelets alone.
Or in my case, the everyday beater watch that sits in the junk drawer. Bracelet is nice, but collectible? Come on.
Hope I made a good decision. I owned the 2264 and made the mistake of selling it Now I own the bond pictured but still miss the 2264 Just bought this one for 1.000 USD which seems like a good price for one lately