Hi All,

I have been keeping an eye on the private watch listing and have noticed that only one vintage speedmaster has been listed for sale so far in 2018.

I understand previous listings do not necessarily predict what future listing may be but a quick scan showed:

Private watch listings for 2915-1 through to 145.022-71 speedmasters (by listing date)

Feb 2018......7 (as of 26th Feb 2018)
Jan 2018.......3

Dec 2017......13
Nov 2017......11
Oct 2017.......16
Sept 2017.....10
Aug 2017......7
July 2017......5
June 2017.....7
May 2017......4
April 2017.....12
March 2017...7
Feb 2017......4
Jan 2017.......7

Dec 2016.......8
Nov 2016.......4


I would be interested see whether if any other forum members have noticed this?

 

I’ve been ‘umming and ahhing’ about listing one, may be two, but have just been too busy so far this year. That, and I keep thinking I’ll miss it/them ...

 

It would appear it's a good time to list. The demand is surely there, but little supply.

 

I think I might be listing one as I am onboarding a new one tomorrow! Pics to come!

JP

 

@omegaswisst
It will be interesting to see how the year pans out, and I hope you'll keep tracking it and post a year-end result!
My feeling is that the 2018 numbers won't differ wildly from 2016-2017, but what will be noticeable is the lack of high quality offerings. Very good condition, all original examples are becoming increasingly difficult to find.

 

Just confirm the listing rules. If you have less than 200 posts you need permission to list a watch for sale.

 

Nice! Job well done! Wondering if you have a price track list as well?

Thanks for the hard work!

 

Hi @Seacow , I was thinking of doing that for my own interest. As I have no experience in grading the watches for sale I was just going to average the price for each reference.

Speedmaster 101 website is a great and much used resource for pricing.

Although, I am starting to track monthly prices there to get a historical perspective.

 

My pet theory is as follows:
Stage 1: The item has a small limited following, with the objects trading often, and
at reasonable prices
Stage 2: The price of the item climbs significantly drawing lots of attention
from collectors who start to see the light on the item and want to participate.
Dealers are also buying in this stage. The items are still trading freely.
Also, at this stage, collectors who had acquired the item at lower prices see
a nice opportunity to take some profits and hold their core pieces.
Stage 3: The sellers from Stage 2 have finished. Interested buyers must now
bid the price up farther to entice profit taking from older and newer holders.
Or they must go to dealers and pay the significant markup dealers have added
to their merchandise. This is the 'hand to mouth' stage. The supply has
fallen well below demand. This is the stage where parabolic price increases
start.
Stage 4: Bubble phase. The average person on the street is aware of what's
going on in this market. Late comers still want into the market. Meteoric
price rise of the item. No sellers.

You know what comes next.
I think we have just entered Stage 3.

 

Hey guys - if I may add my commentary from what I see in the Speedmaster market:

@omegaswisst - It depends on what you define as vintage. I would just say that there is not much trouble at all finding more modern "vintage" Speedys from the 70s-80s , but that the general supply of Cal. 321 Speedmasters has seemingly dried up. To be fair and clear - Cal. 321 Speedmasters are far rarer than most people realize - but many collectors I have spoken with lately seem to be holding their Curved Lug Cal.321s for the upcoming anniversary of the moon landing in 2019.

@pitpro - Its all so cyclical. Though, I think Speedmasters are more undervalued than they are "bubble" watches. I would agree with the idea though that some people have gotten greedy when it comes to the value of their watches as well. But again - the PreMoon Speedmasters are really so much rarer than people understand.

Anyways, my two cents - and my first post. I think you will see activity pick up. We are only 16 days into 2018!

-GQ

 

I think it is just the time of year. I would guess there is more buying/selling near the end of the year, as folks try to get themselves some holiday presents, and/or liquidate in order to buy more for themselves.

Agree with some of the above, though, that there will be more buyers than sellers in next few months, as many businesses will start paying 2017 bonuses to employees.

 

Your model only works if demand remains steady or continues to rise. However, this is a luxury marketplace and interests wax and wane. If prices rise too high it is possible that buyers will change their desires and move elsewhere.

 

I think any conversation about prices and supply-and-demand have to include general economic sentiment. I really would be interested in how the price of luxury items like vintage watches track with the stock market. I imagine when people think times are good they are more willing to spend...

 

Thanks for your comments @GentlemanQ. With regards to vintage I was mainly looking at 321 Speedmasters and 145.022s up to 1971.

@pitpro , I would be interested to know your thoughts on whether we would reach stage 4 more quickly given the 50th anniversary of moon landing is coming up and if we did reach this stage whether it would be before, during or after 2019?
I realize we are just speculating here and no one has that crystal ball, at best an educated guess I suppose.

 

Welcome sir!
I said I thought we were in the beginning of Stage 3.
Not in a bubble phase.
Stage 3 could last for many years.
The fact that you're here as a new member saying that Speedmasters
are undervalued(I agree with you) makes me a little more confident
about the phase we are in.

 

I wouldn't say this is a luxury market. I would call
it a collector market. Collectors are diehards.
Money for collector purchases will wax and wane
with economics conditions certainly. But watch collectors
for example won't move to paintings because of boredom
or because prices are too high. They will move to watches that
are more affordable. Once you're bitten by the watch bug,
you're in for life. lol .

 

Always quiet this time of the year with Christmas breaks.

This time of the year is "got this from my grandpa,father,mother etc...." As many have been home for Christmas.

 

My thoughts are this-
I came here to OF from VRF. I bought some of the Rolexes I wanted
and thought was better value in Omega's and because I always had
loved the Speedmaster since I was a boy. I never went back. I enjoy
this forum much more than I did VRF because of the people here for one.
Pedantics generally don't get personal here. The interface is the best in the
watch world, and the people here are very willing to share their knowledge
and help other member's.
Now to answer your question. If the Rolex world is any example, Omega prices
have a long way to run and for many years. Lots of that Rolex collector money
is now Omega money looking for better value for those collector dollars.
Buy what you can afford and what floats your boat and you won't have any worries.

 

I might be posting mine in the next few weeks. we'll see.

 

This was my initial thought also and the most likely explanation.
I could see there were a few watches been listed so far this year and was surprised when I only found one new listing for vintage speedmaster.