So, S&P up more than 7% and NASDAQ up more than 9% for July. Both still down significantly for the year, of course. So how do our OF stock gurus think that the second half of 2022 is going to fare? End of the carnage or sucker’s rally?
History shows that it not only can get much worse...the odds are that it will. A simple look at the political/economic decisions that got us into this mess will show you that we still are far from out of it. There are powerful forces inside and outside the US that have been working for years to destroy our manufacturing base, make us energy dependent, and pile on a load of debt that has historically crushed great nations and empires. Getting the nation/economy healthy again will take discipline and sacrifice. The bill always comes and it must be paid.
None of that necessarily translates into negative stock market returns. Historically, betting against the ingenuity and ability of American companies to make profits even in challenging economic times has been a very bad bet.
I believe the US and the rest of the world are going to be hit with tremendous turmoil, caused by many different factors, and this could turn into a multi-decade Depression.
Partially agree. I think the overall broad market (think DOW and S&P 500) coud see much more downside. Maybe DOW 25,000. That said, there will always be stocks that make money for someone in times like this. Foreclosures on houses means someone buys them cheap and makes a profit. Same with stocks...or businesses. Computer trading can manipulate profits out of a down market. (Like Buffet, I don't buy things I don't understand.) I believe the US and the rest of the world are going to be hit with tremendous turmoil, caused by many different factors, and this could turn into a multi-decade Depression.
I'm not sure that buying 24k watches when gold is near $1,800 oz is that great of a hedge...
Last thought...I wouldn't invest in SS Rolex sports models. I would "invest" (as in buy and enjoy) in any and all quality 18k watches...Omega, Vacheron Constantine, Patek, Rolex. In times of turmoil, these can be like a little Swiss bank on your wrist. They can buy us a camel and an AK47 or a bed or a wife or a meal. Muddle leaves a lot to be desired.
VERB
NOUN
- bring into a disordered or confusing state:
"I fear he may have muddled the message"
synonyms:
jumbled · in a jumble · in a muddle · in a mess · chaotic · in disorder ·
mix · blend · agitate · beat · whip · whisk · fold in
Gold, like everything, goes up and down. But the purchasing power, regardless of the transient dollar value of the gold, has remained stable for over a century...maybe even more. When you put a quality, name brand watch inside the gold, you add an extra layer of value. Even the most primitive bandit can't help but smile when you show him a gold watch.
Dead cat bounce during a recession is usually around 20%.
The interest rate changes haven't affected earnings yet, lag effect starts September.
Shares won't start a real recovery until Q3 next year, my best guess.
I am not investment savvy, I don’t have a large portfolio- I have my TSP maxed which is diversified for long term…like a large chunk of the middle class populous.
My cost of living in just the last year has become a hardship- utilities have doubled (not exaggerating- I look at my bills), food costs are up by 1/3 (we are pretty consistent in what we buy and it has been noticeable at the register), and I am saving less- far less than I was able to just last year.
So as a member of the working middle class in this country- I am not spending on any luxuries right now (including watches)…things are tight, and I don’t see things getting better any time soon.
So, if my experience as someone of comfortable (I think) but modest means is an indicator of how most middle class Americans feel right now- The outlook isn’t sunny.
I am not investment savvy, I don’t have a large portfolio- I have my TSP maxed which is diversified for long term…like a large chunk of the middle class populous.
My cost of living in just the last year has become a hardship- utilities have doubled (not exaggerating- I look at my bills), food costs are up by 1/3 (we are pretty consistent in what we buy and it has been noticeable at the register), and I am saving less- far less than I was able to just last year.
So as a member of the working middle class in this country- I am not spending on any luxuries right now (including watches)…things are tight, and I don’t see things getting better any time soon.
So, if my experience as someone of comfortable (I think) but modest means is an indicator of how most middle class Americans feel right now- The outlook isn’t sunny.
