What sort of production run in the 60s or 70s makes a watch “rare” today?

Neeb · Oct 19, 2022

Dan S
In that case, I probably have a dozen watches that are one-of-a-kind, based on finding identical dials on the internet. That doesn't necessarily make them particularly desirable, which seems more relevant and important.

I'm not particularly interested in desirability (other than whether I desire it) - that seems to be a very fickle and nonsensical thing in watches. I just wondered about the relationship between production numbers and online "findability".

But how does "desirability" relate to findability? If a watch is more desirable people might put stuff online about them more, but will they change hands more or less often? And how would that affect online presence anyway?

Obviously if less people desire a watch it's less likely to physically survive - and especially if it's gold I suppose.

eugeneandresson · Oct 19, 2022

40 known ‘x’s … that’s quite a ‘lot’. I’ve been following some watches where there are less than 10 known examples. If we use the 5% rule, that makes about 200 (at 10). I’d guess a run of around 5- 500 for the the mid 20th century should constitute a rare watch. Then there is condition. Some watches may have been produced for only 2 years (maybe 1000?) … but when there are only 3 known in original and beautiful condition (and the rest - not many found - are shagged and totally undesirable)…that also is something rare I think.

Typically these types of watches (unless they are the usual hype-brand … yes, ‘rare’ 1016s can be bought every day of the week) are not to be found, and surprisingly don’t command a premium, as the lemmings are usually looking elsewhere and following each other off a cliff (there is no market for them and no big cheese dealers have hyped the crap out of them as there is not much in it for them).

All IMH2cO. (Edit: all in the context of <1970)

Neeb · Oct 19, 2022

eugeneandresson
40 known ‘x’s … that’s quite a ‘lot’. I’ve been following some watches where there are
Typically these types of watches (unless they are the usual hype-brand … yes, ‘rare’ 1016s can be bought every day of the week) are not to be found, and surprisingly don’t command a premium, as the lemmings are usually looking elsewhere and following each other off a cliff (there is no market for them and no big cheese dealers have hyped the crap out of them as there is not much in it for them).
All IMH2cO.

That's my impression too. That there isn't really a relationship at all between rarity and value (except when dealing with rare versions of an overly hyped brand/model). Which makes rarity quite an easy and satisfying thing to pursue in collecting (IMO).

ghce · Oct 19, 2022

eugeneandresson
40 known ‘x’s … that’s quite a ‘lot’. I’ve been following some watches where there are less than 10 known examples. If we use the 5% rule, that makes about 200 (at 10). I’d guess a run of around 5- 500 for the the mid 20th century should constitute a rare watch. Then there is condition. Some watches may have been produced for only 2 years (maybe 1000?) … but when there are only 3 known in original and beautiful condition (and the rest - not many found - are shagged and totally undesirable)…that also is something rare I think.

Typically these types of watches (unless they are the usual hype-brand … yes, ‘rare’ 1016s can be bought every day of the week) are not to be found, and surprisingly don’t command a premium, as the lemmings are usually looking elsewhere and following each other off a cliff (there is no market for them and no big cheese dealers have hyped the crap out of them as there is not much in it for them).

All IMH2cO.

Sounds right to me.
Here is a great example.
My Invicta 1 out of a numbered production run of a 1000 beautifully made, huge attention to detail with Sapphire crystal front and back, great wrist presence and quite a few you tube videos and online hype but is it desirable?..........probably not, it's an Invicta.
I would contend however that the survivability of this model will be quite high due to all of the above but as an investment value proposition not so much.

Braindrain · Oct 19, 2022

MRC
I have a couple of 1960s Heuer Carreras that even one of the biggest collectors of these does not have.

Pics, please!

MRC · Oct 19, 2022

Braindrain
Pics, please!

OK, this the purest of the Carrera line IMO, a 3647S

and this 7753NS that I have owned and beaten up from new

The tachy versions of each are today the most valuable, and common, but the very plain style is what I like.

watchyouwant · Oct 19, 2022

Neeb
Pretty much as the title.. let’s say a particular case /dial combination had a production run of 100, 1000 or 10,000 in 1970. How rare would it be on the vintage market today?

Rolex Mil. Sub 5513 complete : government auction price versus Auctions these days = US$ 1800 / US$ 60.000. Ref. 5517 complete : more....

asrnj77 · Oct 22, 2022

M'Bob
You also have to consider “demand.” A low production run, but unwanted, may not equal “rare.”

I agree that the demand plays a big factor. Ask any Rolex person about a rare model

kaplan
For Omega's I think it's definitely <100

So not this one? 😀

pdxleaf · Oct 22, 2022

I think of rare as something not often seen and few in number, regardless of whether or not it is in demand. Some of the most rare items are cloth, leather and paper products. A box for a widely manufactured household product from 1890 might be rare today simply because few survived (I found some in the basement when we moved into our house.) It doesn't mean it's desirable, although there might be one person out there who wants it.

The term 'rare' seems to be used most often by sellers. It's a wierd word to use to sell something. You shouldn't need to tell someone it's rare. And how rare could something be if a person can find it on the internet for sale? Perhaps not often seen, but not really rare?

Rare could make for a good reason to collect something. Depends on how much frustration you want to endure. An autograph from Astronaut Bill Anders is worth more than Buzz Aldrin's because Anders did not like to sign autographs. Scarcity can be a reason to collect, can impact value, and may be a better term to use than true rarity, as collecting something that is truly rare could drive a person crazy.

Going back to your question, if I use scarce insteard of rare, a scarce watch is one in good condtition at a price I want to pay that's for sale at the time I want to buy, regardless if there are 100 or 10,000 ever made. DanS has a Gallet for sale now that I would describe as scare based on condition and numbers still existing. It's also very, very inexpensive relative to that reference. Unfortunately for me, it's not when I am buying.