Nobel Prize
·Can't say I agree with your analysis. Provenance can be important but the vast majority of collectible pieces have no known provenance. It
is relevant to only very few watches. Rarity, as mentioned by Tony C only has meaning for desirable or iconic watches. Popularity is not a factor for me at all, and if anything, is a negative. Also, I think trends affect price rather than collectability, while condition hugely affects collectability.
Finally, for me at least, aesthetic considerations trump everything. If the watch is not beautiful, nothing else matters.
I understand Provenance in tis context to be Historic value not only of the actual piece (let's say the "actual" Paul Newman Daytona, or Mcqueen 5512 or Astronaut X speedy) but the brand and model.
Aesthetics don't play as much of a factor to me because taste is a personal issue, and many things may be very very valuable even if they don't fit a particular Aesthetic.

