what 2015 brought you (macroperspective)

Within the context of vintage watch collecting, I would say that 2015 proved to be a rare and interesting year in the following respect.

The market for vintage watches is, like other, similar markets (e.g. automobiles, fine art, etc.), heavily influenced by the broader economy. In most cases the connection is simple: when the economy is strong, people have money to spend on non-essentials, and collector markets rise; when it is weak, the opposite occurs. But 2015 was not typical, and neither were the results.

Without going off on too much of a tangent, as a result of terrible policy decisions by Central Banks, and in particular the Fed, enormous amounts of credit (aka "money") were created out of thin air, and largely injected into the banking system in order to save the major banks that were insolvent in the wake of the 2008 crisis. One of the effects of this policy was to inflate new stock market bubbles, further enriching those who were already well-off.

At the same time, those of the lower and middle classes (i.e. the vast majority of people) largely suffered for the past several years, struggling with layoffs, devaluations of home equity, pension instabilities, no returns on savings, higher taxes, etc.

What this meant in practical terms is that those in the former category had plenty of discretionary money to spend, while the majority had less, and the spending patterns of both reflected these realities.

Back to vintage watch collecting, the practical impact of this bifurcation was a market that experienced a rare bout of biflation. In other words, while the best and most coveted vintage watches rose sharply in value, the much larger group of ordinary watches, and/or those with condition issues, dropped in value.

Again, this is quite different from the far more typical up or down markets, but it is interesting that collector markets continue to accurately reflect the broader economy, even under such extraordinary circumstances.

So, as a collector, what should one make of this? Well, from my standpoint, this uncommon sort of market provides some great opportunities, and at the same time should be treated with caution.

Because values of certain models have risen so rapidly, I would be hesitant to buy at what may be close to the top of an overheated market. This is especially true if one believes, as I do, that the broader economy is going to fare poorly over the coming months and years, and that we will likely see some serious deflation in the value of most assets, including high-end cars and watches, etc.

On the other hand, I am quite happy to pick up interesting watches that are both under the radar, and dropping in price, and there are plenty from which to choose!

Cheers,

Tony C.

You may be aware of this, but those who are aren't may be amused to learn that you are paraphrasing A. A. Milne's famous children's book character, Winnie the Pooh (1926):

“Well," said Pooh, "what I like best," and then he had to stop and think. Because although Eating Honey was a very good thing to do, there was a moment just before you began to eat it which was better than when you were, but he didn't know what it was called.

1. I learned that I didn't know much until I bought and handled around 50 watches. I still don't know much😜

2. Don't buy a piece that needs any parts replaced whatsoever. It is always a headache and I already have too many saved Ebay searches going for parts. Time = $ and you can't get time back. I'd rather pay more for a good example that saves me time.

3. Train your eye for the examples with a solid original look and feel, a "rightness," research them to death, confirm.

4. Omegaforums is an invaluable resource and part of the joy of collecting is the forum interactions and personalities.

In previous years my MO was to accumulate and repair later and I'll stand by that strategy looking at what the market has done.
Time to sell a few though...😉

[alam's perspective] ...a year closer to retirement!

It's everything you've imagined it would be!

oh my! too much bling bling in retirement land!