- Posts
- 98
- Likes
- 119
dxholdren
·Say hello to a substantial rise of vintage Speedy prices. Sellers will have this one time auction to touch back on, saying their Speedy isn’t polished or relumed so it can sell for 500k. Sigh.
We’re not in a bubble. 330k CHF. plus commission. Omega 2915-1
- Posts
- 572
- Likes
- 419
E-diddy
·The result of this 2915-1 has been the most surprising to me. It is not in "unspoiled condition" as claimed. Fake bezel, relumed dial, newer pushers and minute hand is shorter. Nothing wrong with restoring a watch, but if the auction house had disclosed all these changes it would not have achieved such a high price.
- Posts
- 1,560
- Likes
- 4,419
MaiLollo
·How do you guys know that the dial was relumed?
- Posts
- 23,753
- Likes
- 52,762
- Posts
- 1,719
- Likes
- 5,199
Screwbacks
·im just guessing that the buyer of this auctioned piece may be a neophyte young other type of vintage watch collector who had no right at all to bid at such a high price for a restored 2951-1. 😁
Edited:
- Posts
- 572
- Likes
- 419
- Posts
- 2,444
- Likes
- 9,908
- Posts
- 7,132
- Likes
- 23,141
- Posts
- 2,444
- Likes
- 9,908
- Posts
- 8,039
- Likes
- 28,245
Tony C.
··Ωf Jury memberThe market wants perfect and the market gets perfect. Honest patina is just an expression in most cases. Look at the FAP SM300 last year and now many of the Daytonas. All put together or enhanced in one way or the other. We get exactly what we ask for and it is not the non-serious collectors fault imho.
"The market" that you refer to is contrived. It is ludicrous that non-original (in the important sense) watches should bring such ridiculously high prices.
The "We" you refer to in your last sentence are those willing to overpay, just as they do in other markets, and i certainly do consider a high percentage of them to be unsophisticated.
Of course the market is complex, as, for example, a wealthy Chinese person may be quite happy to buy a $500k watch even if its value is likely to drop to $200k (or less) in the future, as the purchase may allow him to export capital that would otherwise be stuck in China. But I am speaking about the market as it exists now, and where it is likely to go, and I have no doubt that it is in a bubble, and that most extremely high auction prices, like the one being discussed on this thread, will be seen in retrospect as having been inflated.
Edited:
- Posts
- 8,039
- Likes
- 28,245
Tony C.
··Ωf Jury member
Alfredo Paramico is an interesting man, but he manages an investment fund devoted exclusively to horology! Do you imagine that he is being objective when he asserts that "There's No Vintage Bubble"?
And yes, thanks for the softball! Suggesting that a career in investment banking insures good credentials for spotting a bubble is tantamount to recommending a fox for hen-house protection duties.
As for the time-only Patek that you referenced, I would need to see it to form an opinion. But I can virtually assure you that I would expect it to do better over time as an investment than a re-lumed Speedmaster.
- Posts
- 7,132
- Likes
- 23,141
- Posts
- 215
- Likes
- 923
roh123
·"The market" that you refer to is contrived. It is ludicrous that non-original (in the important sense) watches should bring such ridiculously high prices.
The "We" you refer to in your last sentence are those willing to overpay, just as they do in other markets, and i certainly do consider a high percentage of them to be unsophisticated.
Of course the market is complex, as, for example, a wealthy Chinese person may be quite happy to buy a $500k watch even if its value is likely to drop to $200k (or less) in the future, as the purchase may allow him to export capital that would otherwise be stuck in China. But I am speaking about the market as it exists now, and where it is likely to go, and I have no doubt that it is in a bubble, and that most extremely high auction prices, like the one being discussed on this thread, will be seen in retrospect as having been inflated.
- Posts
- 25,980
- Likes
- 27,698
ulackfocus
·I nominate this thread for best use of analogies / metaphors for 2018. 👍
Completely awesome use of an illustration! Dude, you are on your game. Much better than that Christie / bridge joke you quipped during the Son of Light / Boston Harbor Seamaster thread. 😉
@Tony C. - almost as bad as suggesting a group of FanBoys will admit there's a Speedmaster bubble! 😜
Completely awesome use of an illustration! Dude, you are on your game. Much better than that Christie / bridge joke you quipped during the Son of Light / Boston Harbor Seamaster thread. 😉
Suggesting that a career in investment banking insures good credentials for spotting a bubble is tantamount to recommending a fox for hen-house protection duties.
@Tony C. - almost as bad as suggesting a group of FanBoys will admit there's a Speedmaster bubble! 😜
- Posts
- 2,520
- Likes
- 17,831
airansun
·One watch auction does not the market make nor predict, for all the reason articulated here.
I once watched two bidders go crazy over a rare pen. By the time they were done, the hammer price was five times what the audience thought it was worth. It was two new collectors. Immediately afterwards, five dealers ran up to the loser, offering identical pens for what his highest bid was. The room was hysterical, shouting and stomping.
Within an hour, and with the consignor’s agreement, the auction was ‘redone’ and the pen went for a far more reasonable amount. Back then, it was a small enough community (and the auction was being run by a collective of community members), that the first high bidder was let off the hook.
I once watched two bidders go crazy over a rare pen. By the time they were done, the hammer price was five times what the audience thought it was worth. It was two new collectors. Immediately afterwards, five dealers ran up to the loser, offering identical pens for what his highest bid was. The room was hysterical, shouting and stomping.
Within an hour, and with the consignor’s agreement, the auction was ‘redone’ and the pen went for a far more reasonable amount. Back then, it was a small enough community (and the auction was being run by a collective of community members), that the first high bidder was let off the hook.
- Posts
- 2,444
- Likes
- 9,908
Rman
·... I can virtually assure you that I would expect it to do better over time as an investment than a re-lumed Speedmaster.
In time all lume will turn to dust. I have mixed feelings about this.
There is no doubt this market is in the speculative phase and this example is egregious, but those who have been sitting out have missed a lot of appreciation i reckon. Especially on the liquid references.
- Posts
- 25,980
- Likes
- 27,698
- Posts
- 2,444
- Likes
- 9,908
Rman
·
- Posts
- 499
- Likes
- 966
pmontoyap
·For what is worth, now and then the memories come back to me of that day in 2012 when I saw a 2915-1 (edited to show correct reference) listed for USD$11.000 BIN in mint condition, brown dial. I don’t recall all the details of the watch per se, all I know is the seller mentioned the dial having no step was a very rare and correct feature for the first batch but somehow I did not trust this info, plus the watch was a bit above my budget. But what really threw me off was the no step 
- Posts
- 358
- Likes
- 1,026
nixf6
·The result of this 2915-1 has been the most surprising to me. It is not in "unspoiled condition" as claimed. Fake bezel, relumed dial, newer pushers and minute hand is shorter. Nothing wrong with restoring a watch, but if the auction house had disclosed all these changes it would not have achieved such a high price.
