Did vintage watch prices react on the stock market crash of 2000 or the subprime crash in 2007? I see stocks quite overpriced currently and im worrying a bit about 2018/2019. Will watch prices fall if people loose their savings? Or might the market shift into "saver", non return producing, assets (gold, watches)?

Are there any "older" members on this forum that can remember wether they bought or sold watches back then and if prices achieved where satisfying?

Are Berkshire shareholders on this forum?

 

Which country? U.S.?

The watches are international, so it takes more of a global issue to affect prices vs if something were isolated to the U.S.

 

Of course prices were impacted, sometimes dramatically. I am really glad I bought a lot during the down turn, but not as much as I would have had I not been adversely impacted like many others.

 

A very good point. If there would be a global crisis that it would affect global watch market. All you have to do is to adjust to current situation.

 

FWIW A lot of countries assets are made up of US securities (which are considered to be *relatively* "safe" investments, so a downturn in US stocks almost always means a large ripple to rest of world. But I'm only an armchair economist, so don't take it from me...

 

Watches (of the common variety) are not meant to be an investment. It is for fun and something to keep one occupied. Buying during downturn makes sense in that you can buy more (quantity) or better (quality) watches than when market is good. Unless you are flipping watches for a living.

 

From my own very casual observations there certainly might be short term price fluctuations, however during global finanacial downturns interest rates tend to be low so money saved in the bank makes little sense, alternative investments that you can enjoy then make far more sense and my feeling has always been that Omega prices have increased steadily during the last two global crisis.

 

I remember I made some money on the bubbleback bubble waaay back then, so look for the nearest bubble and don't be the last one out.... OR buy what appeals to you and gives you joy.

 

As someone with an Economics degree I...have no idea.

Typically you would expect vintage watch prices to fall during a recession.

However, the Chinese are adding tens of millions of people to the middle classes every month; and soon the Indians and Indonesians will be doing the same. That’s a huge number of people with money to burn. A tiny proportion will get into vintage watches. But that could well be enough to sustain price rises.

When vintage watches were produced, the population of people with money to buy them was a quarter of what it is now. Low, unchanging supply plus increasing demand = price rises.

The same goes for wine collecting, classic cars, art, etc. If you don’t buy now, even though prices seem ridiculous, you may never see them lower...

 

When the GFC was happening around the world Australia was in a mining boom so it was worth buying in US as dollar was at parity.

Last year it was worth buying in the UK as Brexit and Aus $ was downt to 75cents to the US $

It's a world game nowdays so opportunities change.

At the end of the day most watches have gained value if bought smart by the below advice

https://omegaforums.net/threads/condition-condition-condition-and-other-pieces-of-advice.1716/

 

I have no doubt that another severe economic crisis is on the horizon, and that vintage watch values will be affected.

There will likely be deflation in every asset class, with the exception of some "productive" assets and gold/silver.

 

If there is one thing I know for sure, it is that you cannot know for sure

But I agree, markets tend to be cyclical so my guess is that there will be a downturn. Whether that will be severe, I don’t know; and the extent to which it will affect vintage prices is also uncertain given the demand/supply balance I mentioned above. It may just slow the rate of growth rather than result in a fall in values.

And it may be next year, or in 5 years, or more...

 

I think there is a safe range to play in and that is under 10k ... beyond that, the prices of certain steel chrono and rare Roli feel frothy to me. Not sure on the real expensive stuff like PP chronographs (big ticket but will always be chased) .

 

Could one argue that as the stock market goes down, collectable watches goes up? People might view the price of a 321 to be less volatile than the market and choose to "keep" their money there.

 

I'd say complicated PPs would benefit from a crisis. I feel it's a bit absurd that a tropical 2998 or a SS Daytona B/P is worth more today than a Patek 3970 in gold... (I say this, but I'd rather have the 2998 than the 3970 )
I feel like there is much less of a premium on complex pateks versus steel sport watches (if you think in Today's value/ Retail price terms)

 

I think the more standard and very reasonable counter-argument to this is that as stock markets go down, economies go down, and people have less money to spend on luxury items.

 

Very very likely. I would tend to agree with this.

We are eventually due for an "adjustment" in the markets (things cannot continue like they have for the last 12 months), and when it happens i believe we will see watch prices drop as well as people have less disposable income.

 

I suspect prices on 'affordable' watches ($10k USD or less?) will drop -- as that is where grassroots collectors generally collect -- but the high-dollar watches likely will not. Those with real money always have real money.

 

I agree with this. For the people with the 321s locked away, they will be able to afford to keep them locked away. It is the later 861s/1861s that will drop as people with less income need to sell them off, and there are less people with disposable income to buy them.