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Watch values increasing, are they seen as “good investments” in the current financial turmoil?

  1. wbfondren Mar 26, 2020

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    Fair point. You can lose big in watches just as people can and have through the market and unfortunately these past few weeks have served as an example of both.
     
  2. bgrisso Mar 26, 2020

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    Holy S, I was joking about C24 coming up with charts to track your P&L just like the stock market, but I just checked my account and they actually do it !
     
    C24-Chart-A.jpg C24-Chart-B.jpg
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  3. bazamu wincer, not a bidder Mar 26, 2020

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    Okay, I'll bite. I typed up a response over the weekend when discussing this question. Not that I have any more insight than others do, but it's already typed so easy to paste here!

    I think price declines (in the short-term) are inevitable given the equity market's recent volatility (which makes people reevaluate priorities), but I also think rare or excellent condition vintage pieces [read: desirable and truly rare, five-figure+ watches, not a BBGMT] in the hands of collectors aren't going to move much in price during this cycle. Nobody is buying watches with debt and most people spending $20K+ on multiple watches are fairly liquid and won't need to firesale their watches to make ends meet.

    What that ultimately means is lower volume of desirable stuff trading hands between collectors and a pronounced decline for average watches in average condition being marketed to new buyers (we have already seen this phase). Oh, and the people paying 2-3x MSRP for a brand new Nautilus / Rolex etc. on the grey market? Wouldn't be surprised to see that house of cards collapse quickly.

    Now, to the broader question - I think new entrants to the hobby need to re-frame their view of watches as investments - if you want to reduce watches to dollars and cents, the most they should present at any time is an arbitrage opportunity. Example: You find a straight lug Speedy in a dusty antique shop for $5K and you know the market is $10K+ at the low-end. If you're simply looking for a return, that's arbitrage and that is the way to not get burned on anything you purchase. If you're buying and simply putting it in a drawer for 20 years, then who the hell knows what's going to happen and I'd strongly suggest putting that money in the S&P 500.
     
  4. Archer Omega Qualified Watchmaker Mar 26, 2020

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    I buy watches because I want them to enjoy so I don't buy for investing purposes, and future value has little to do with my watch choices (it is way down the list of my considerations). I have no idea if my current collection overall has gained or lost - it's simply not important to me.

    If the vintage watch market drops in a big way, for me that is nothing more than a potential opportunity to buy watches that are currently out of my reach.
     
  5. wbfondren Mar 26, 2020

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    And I think this is the most important aspect of what I believe too. I don’t consider this when buying either. Earlier I wanted to defend the point that they can be seen as investments as some watches have proved themselves as “assets that do appreciate.” But trying to discern between those that do appreciate and don’t is becoming more difficult as the market becomes more saturated.

    In any case, I still urge people to prioritize passion over future value / investment, etc.
     
  6. wbfondren Mar 26, 2020

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    Their price tool usually seems to be in the right ballpark, but I wish that sold prices were reflected rather than every asking price. It’s fairly easy for a dealer with large inventory to pump up that tool for a specific watch and then use that tool as evidence to sell at higher prices.

    But as @bazamu said, the grey market hype watches will likely fall like a house of cards so hopefully this will give C24 and others time to improve their tools to reflect a more accurate market value of these watches.
     
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  7. bgrisso Mar 26, 2020

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    I have a spreadsheet where I keep track of what I paid and my current best guess on market value, just to give myself a ballpark sense of where I'm at, so I'm not trying to disparage the idea of tracking value in very basic terms, but there's something about turning it into those charts that crosses the line for me personally. I deleted my watches from their system so that I don't have to be bothered with it.

    Nice Tri in your avi by the way :thumbsup:
     
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  8. wbfondren Mar 26, 2020

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    Thanks! And I know countless collectors and dealers have these spreadsheets on their local systems, I’d love to get them together in some way for everyone to see.
     
  9. bazamu wincer, not a bidder Mar 26, 2020

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    I also keep a spreadsheet that's updated regularly based on what I'm seeing in the market. Once a collection reaches a certain point (financially or by count), it's the most responsible way to stay on top of everything (in my opinion).
     
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  10. pIoNeErOfThEnILe Mar 26, 2020

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    ^^^^^^^^^

    for the most part, it's all about the price. collections could easily become solid "investments" under this rule
     
  11. KingCrouchy Mar 27, 2020

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    I just saw this Advertisement of Patek Philippe and it's the first fime I see advertisements putting forward the notion of "Investment" in the Watch Industry, are there other examples out there?
     
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  12. STANDY schizophrenic pizza orderer and watch collector Mar 27, 2020

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    Haven’t lost any money on all my watches as I haven’t sold them.;)

    Buying for investment, flipping for profit is making my bought for fun and enjoyment watches worth more. Carry on people :thumbsup:

    And all were bought with @MSNWatch s very sage advice below.

    https://omegaforums.net/threads/condition-condition-condition-and-other-pieces-of-advice.1716/

    Squirrelled away overtime and On Call money as per @Archer s advice.


     
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  13. wbfondren Mar 27, 2020

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  14. JacksonPollock Mar 31, 2020

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    I enjoy buying interesting and undervalued pieces. Watching the prices rise is enjoyable and an affirmation to my tastes.
     
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  15. horseShu Apr 1, 2020

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    These companies are just trying to sell watches. They will use any angle: heritage, status or "your money is safe". And honestly, if I were working in their marketing department, I'll use any trick to entice people to buy.