Watch Prices and Inflation

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Only because it touches on pricing bubbles of luxury assets like watches, I’m sharing this rather good (if alarming) long format from Politico about Thomas Hoenig, formerly of the US Federal Reserve:

The Fed’s Doomsday Prophet Has a Dire Warning About Where We’re Headed

“While Hoenig was concerned about inflation, that isn’t what solely what drove him to lodge his string of dissents. The historical record shows that Hoenig was worried primarily that the Fed was taking a risky path that would deepen income inequality, stoke dangerous asset bubbles and enrich the biggest banks over everyone else. He also warned that it would suck the Fed into a money-printing quagmire that the central bank would not be able to escape without destabilizing the entire financial system.

On all of these points, Hoenig was correct. And on all of these points, he was ignored. We are now living in a world that Hoenig warned about.”




Importantly, I didn’t share this to stoke a broader political/financial-policy discussion, which should probably be avoided

Instead, only to focus on the narrower topic of the increasing availability of cash, inflation, and asset bubbles, as it relates to skyrocketing watch prices.
 
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I don't think there is much argument that the flood of newly minted dollars in the many trillions, along with zero interest rates, is pushing up asset prices, including the watch business. When it ends, and how it ends, is unknown.
 
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It's only a bubble if some people keep paying higher and higher prices.
 
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Some luxury watches are an excellent hedge against inflation (such as Rolex SS sports models).

Others hold value relatively well, and can be used as a store of value. These typically do well in inflationary periods as well.

My Seamaster that I purchased a decade and a half ago is worth more money than I bought it. Is it a good investment? No, but definitely better than holding that exact same amount of cash over the years.