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Vintage watch market bubbles?

  1. jsaen Jun 2, 2016

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    Hi all,
    I'm still new to watch collecting, and in the year I've been buying watches, I've definitely seen choice watches getting increasingly expensive, seemingly accelerated by the Phillips auction several weeks ago.

    Several members here have suggested bubble. I'd like to learn more about watch bubbles, since I've never lived through one. Is there a good place or pointer to lessons from a previous bubble? This growth in price feels like it's across the board and not just tied to one specific type or brand. Are there previous examples that are this broad?

    It would be cool if this was a bubble. I'd be sad about how much cheaper i could have gotten everything, but happy that I can now get more watches. On the other hand, if there is no popping, I'm going to be really sad if I wait at all for any watch I'll ever want. (okay, maybe I need to take a breath, it's only watches :) )

    so bubble? no bubble?

    Please teach me about watch market bubbles.

    thanks.
     
  2. Foo2rama Keeps his worms in a ball instead of a can. Jun 2, 2016

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    There have been some good articles recently posted on this forum. Vintage chrono are on the rise but how much of it is a market correction, and how much is a bubble.

    Some people think a lot of it has been due to manipulation by watch investment funds. I think some of it was the rise of new luxury watch sales a few years ago and now those people are transitioning to what feels like a more affordable hobby with vintage which raises the prices with more demand.

    I've not been at it long enough to comment on the broad market but I've seen a pattern in Rolexes. The 1655 Orange Hand Explorer II spiked then fell. Then the green glass Millgauss spiked and fell, now the Ceramic Daytona looks to be doing the same thing.
     
  3. al128 unsolicited co-moderation giverer Jun 2, 2016

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    never followed it too closely, but werent there Rolex bubblebacks also hotter some years ago than now?

    cheers
     
    Foo2rama likes this.
  4. ulackfocus Jun 2, 2016

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    That's the most important sentence of your entire post. ;)
     
    Baz9614, Mouse_at_Large and Larry S like this.
  5. Larry S Color Commentator for the Hyperbole. Jun 2, 2016

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    I've been in a bit of a beat the bubble UG/ Sport Chrono frenzy of late, I need to calm the ____ down. Breath...Its only watches....yessssss I feel calmer. ::book::
     
    littlesheep81 likes this.
  6. WatchVaultNYC Jun 2, 2016

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    Like most other investments, if you buy and hold you'll outlast bubbles and corrections.
     
  7. jsaen Jun 2, 2016

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    Of course you're right. On the other hand, watches that I was targeting seem to be 60-120% more expensive than 3-6 months ago. I have to figure out if I bite the bullet, wait, or give up.
     
    Larry S likes this.
  8. jsaen Jun 2, 2016

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    I had forgotten about that. I did read one thread about watch investment funds, but it was more anecdote than data. I couldn't tell if it was likely or just a possibility.
     
  9. Foo2rama Keeps his worms in a ball instead of a can. Jun 3, 2016

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    More then a few watch makers are buying up thier vintage watches ostensibly for thier museums, in reality it inflates thier prices.

    Thier are known watch funds and I bet they will do some market manipulation, it happens in automobiles all the time. You think the Hemi Cuda vert jumping into the millions was a market correction or just due to the rerelease of Hemi branding by Dodge? That was pure market manipulation. Some guys tried it a few years back on 21 window fans and failed.

    It's not hard to do it. Buy up an uncommon car or watch get a few examples that need some work and have a perfect one. Say 15-25k for the examples that are not perfect but can become perfect with a little work. Sell your perfect one at an high vis auction with 2-4 shill bidders your out auction fees. Make the perfect one go for 80k+ Presto your 15-25 k examples are now worth 40k and you made a nice chunk of change.
     
  10. Davidt Jun 3, 2016

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    Part of the problem is too many people viewing watches as investments in the first place.
     
  11. gop76 Jun 3, 2016

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    Watches in general, and vintage in particular, are now seen not as a luxury good but as a finacial asset and, as most of financial assets, their prices are reflecting the policies of the big money makers around the world.

    What should be expected when FED, ECB, BoJ, BoE and others spent the last years throwing money for the economy? This money will appear somewhere...

    This will end one day and in that day what will keep (or close) his value are the good watch examples (good quality assets), not the poor examples (frankens or in bad shape) that now are seeing their value also climbing just by following the trend
     
  12. Alex_TA Jun 3, 2016

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    Too much paper money.
     
  13. Larry S Color Commentator for the Hyperbole. Jun 3, 2016

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    It's an expensive proposition building a quality collection now especially for those that are new to the hobby. Then things like 321 bezels and other parts start getting bid up as well, it all starts to become crazy expensive. I'd say most folks on this forum are in this for the love of the watches and the hunt,
     
    RCAFBuster likes this.
  14. citizenrich Metal Mixer! Jun 3, 2016

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    Watches, jewelry and small collectibles have been used as de-facto currency for decades in places like South America, where governments have no respect for their currency.
     
    watchknut and Tony C. like this.
  15. jsaen Jun 6, 2016

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    These are all reasonable theories. Does anybody have pointers to data? Either from past watch bubbles or the current situation?
     
  16. Traveler Jun 7, 2016

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    History is pointless - 8 years of central bank distortion of markets, and debasing of paper currency puts us in uncharted waters.
     
    Edited Jun 7, 2016
    Jking, citizenrich, noelekal and 2 others like this.
  17. Optimizer13 Jun 7, 2016

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    Just buy what you like with no intention of making money from this hobby. Make money in other industries where the returns are much higher and don't lose sleep over watches :)
     
    Hijak, ahartfie, sliceoftime_ and 3 others like this.