Vintage car prices are dropping. Is it a portent of things to come with watches?

destroid · Jan 17, 2018

Strange ... Porsche prices are through the roof. Non self driving, manual, naturally aspirated flat 6 engine - these cars will never be made again.

http://rennlist.com/forums/vehicle-...s-4-0-3600-miles-absolute-mint-condition.html

Edited: Jan 17, 2018

Rman · Jan 17, 2018

BlackTalon
Most of the electric and self-driving car projections for the US that I see tend to be from people in major metropolitan areas. Places where many are opting not to even have cars these days. Get out in the 'burbs of farmland and it is a different story. Face it, not everyone wants to live their life within a 2 mile radius.

So what’s happens to the burbs when the commute time is 20% of what it currently is? Due to the speed of automated driving...

ChrisN
5 year... And what will we all be driving? We don't all live in cities and use a company that says it's just an "app" enabling it to treat it's "non employees" any way it feels.

I don't know about US but there are best part of 30 million cars in UK and that means they'd need to sell 6 million cars a year to replace the existing ones. How will people with a £1000 car go oout And buy one 10 times....

Yes most of the world’s people do live in cities

And most people won’t own a car, the car will be running 24/7 as a fleet and u will be picked up when needed. Cars sit most of the time now. Do you really believe your version of the future of transportation? No change?

I understand you’re upset about Uber but I’m not advocating for them or for any outcome.

Just relaying what I hear. The next 5-10 years will change our idea of transportation fundamentally.

DitchGreen · Jan 17, 2018

ChrisN
I don't know about US but there are best part of 30 million cars in UK and that means they'd need to sell 6 million cars a year to replace the existing ones. How will people with a £1000 car go out and buy a new one at ten times that?Chris

Personally, I don’t think that’s the way it needs to go. I suspect the winning model will be firms buying self-drive electric cars in bulk and running them for 200,000+ miles a year for a couple of years, as working lifespans of electric cars become higher (few moving parts and battery lifespans are rapidly improving). The firm would have their own solar arrays on the warehouse buildings, and no drivers to pay, so the cost of transport per mile for the end user will plummet, to the point where ownership makes no financial sense. You just have the car pick you up and drop you off for a pittance.

Just my opinion. Who really knows? Even assuming all that happens, it need not necessarily reduce passion-ownership of classic cars, but I suspect it eventually would.

DitchGreen · Jan 17, 2018

Rman
So what’s happens to the burbs when the commute time is 20% of what it currently is? Due to the speed of automated driving...

Yes most of the world’s people do live in cities

And most people won’t own a car, the car will be running 24/7 as a fleet and u will be picked up when needed. Cars sit most of the time now. Do you really believe your version of the future of transportation? No change?

I understand you’re upset about Uber but I’m not advocating for them or for any outcome.

Just relaying what I hear. The next 5-10 years will change our idea of transportation fundamentally.

Sorry, I was writing my last comment while you were posting yours. I said basically the same thing!

Archer · Jan 17, 2018

Rman
And most people won’t own a car, the car will be running 24/7 as a fleet and u will be picked up when needed. Cars sit most of the time now.

This - it's a full on paradigm shift coming if things work out the way I believe they will. It will change how we think about a lot of things - imagine most of the parking spaces we have now being no longer needed for example - only one small example but big implications.

dodo44 · Jan 17, 2018

...and human-driven vehicles will become illegal on the road because they will represent a liability for those flawless self-driven vehicles

ChrisN · Jan 17, 2018

Rman
And most people won’t own a car, the car will be running 24/7 as a fleet and u will be picked up when needed. Cars sit most of the time now. Do you really believe your version of the future of transportation? No change?

Just relaying what I hear. The next 5-10 years will change our idea of transportation fundamentally.

I also believe things will change and never said my vision was "no change". It just won't be in 5 years - I am talking about UK as I said. Somewhere like California may be different but, we're a long way from shared ownership here. Most people won't even car share to go to work.

The reason most cars don't run 24/7 is because people use them to drive to and from work. The only way you can do what you're thinking is if everyone starts work at different times or works from home. If not, you have massive over capacity at certain times of the day. That's the same issue as we have now.

Anyway, we'll all be working from home three days a week and off enjoying ourselves for the other four. That's what they promised us in the seventies... still waiting.

Cheers, Chris

BlackTalon · Jan 17, 2018

Rman
So what’s happens to the burbs when the commute time is 20% of what it currently is? Due to the speed of automated driving...

I doubt we will ever find out, as 20% is a pipe dream. Traffic flow is traffic flow. Streets cross other streets. So cars will still need to stop and wait, and traffic will still back up. Pedestrians will still walk out across city streets, forcing cars to stop, etc.

Couple this with potentially more ride-sharing, then you get fleets of automated cars criss-crossing the 'burbs to pick-up/ drop off the riders. Now they are not stuck on the highway, but are backing up more in the residential areas.

Automated driving -- especially getting poor drivers out from behind the wheel -- will definitely be a help up to a certain point. But I know I will not be surrendering my drivers license, or my driver-required cars -- anytime in the next 5, 10 or 15 years.

CajunTiger · Jan 17, 2018

Vintage cars carry an added monthly cost (insurance, storage and maintenance) that is not necessary with a watch. Regardless, I haven't seen a drop in prices in my region...but im not following the extreme end.

But looking forward to a correction so I can afford to buy again 😀

Thomas P. · Jan 17, 2018

CajunTiger
Vintage cars carry an added monthly cost (insurance, storage and maintenance) that is not necessary with a watch. Regardless, I haven't seen a drop in prices in my region...but im not following the extreme end.

But looking forward to a correction so I can afford to buy again 😀

Actually I think I have found the answer. Focus on modern classics that have not become hyped too much. You get a wearable watch with parts that are available from the manufacturer for much less than a vintage watch. The best of both worlds in my eyes.

Spacefruit · Jan 18, 2018

ICONO
Classic cars,… like vintage watches are an emotional purchase…triggered by childhood memories

.....

Those of us, who are more mature, in age still remember an earlier period……At the turn of the Century, I bought a series 1.5 E type… & I seem to remember that @Spacefruit has recently bought his Wife an MGB, to runround in
........

Not to be another pedant, but it was a C.

A much maligned beast, with a production of 8999 units, in 1968/9/70. Half went out of uk, and a large proportion crashed. Minor adjustments to the steering angles cure a chronic understeer, partly brought on by the larger 3 litre engine hanging over the front crossmember.

Very few left, and this one is even rarer, being an automatic - once the kiss of death for an MG, automtics often dismantled for parts.

Note the Minilites. So much better than wires, unless you really have nothing to do Sunday afternoons.

Dash1 · Jan 18, 2018

Perversely when non privately owned, autonomously driven, electric cars become a reality the price of classic cars will most likely sky rocket. Many people will use the driverless cars for commuting and other practical purposes but will want to fill their, now empty, parking space with a beautiful and noisy vintage car for fun.

Spacefruit · Jan 18, 2018

Dash1
Perversely when non privately owned, autonomously driven, electric cars become a reality the price of classic cars will most likely sky rocket. Many people will use the driverless cars for commuting and other practical purposes but will want to fill their, now empty, parking space with a beautiful and noisy vintage car for fun.

Makes sense

akshayluc420 · Jan 18, 2018

Dash1
Perversely when non privately owned, autonomously driven, electric cars become a reality the price of classic cars will most likely sky rocket. Many people will use the driverless cars for commuting and other practical purposes but will want to fill their, now empty, parking space with a beautiful and noisy vintage car for fun.

I completely agree, and it's a very similar conversation as to why one would spend a (relativity) lot of money for a mechanical watch (modern or vintage) when a quartz does the same and is waay cheaper.

Coming back to if vintage cars is like a harbinger for an economic state, I'm on the side of correlation doesn't indicate causation; atleast not as attitudes towards current and vintage cars are beginning to change.

ewand · Jan 18, 2018

Dash1
Perversely when non privately owned, autonomously driven, electric cars become a reality the price of classic cars will most likely sky rocket. Many people will use the driverless cars for commuting and other practical purposes but will want to fill their, now empty, parking space with a beautiful and noisy vintage car for fun.

Jay Leno has said that the automobile was the savior of the horse - instead of the towns and cities being choked with horse (and their inevitable effluent), the motor vehicle was used to greater effect instead, leaving horse riding as a mostly pleasure pursuit. Fewer horses needed, sure, but those which remained had a much better quality of life.

Imagine a world when autonomous pod fleets are used for mundane transport, so you won't need Toyota Corollas and Ford Focuses. All the more room on the road for the interesting stuff ...

As to the value of classic cars; an oft-spoken maxim is, don't buy anything but the very best you can afford, that's had everything that needs to be done taken care of. Maybe the same will happen with watches - instead of sweeping up shitheaps at auction with the hope that one day you'll swap the hands/bezel/dial etc for a better one, just wait until the really good ones come up for sale and buy them...