While I haven’t bought a pre owned ( vintage or otherwise ) watch recently. Todate mine have been 5-8% below asking price from jeweller or 10-12% from private dealer. Interestingly, some new watches have had a 2.5-5% discount for non credit card purchases

 

Well I can tell you what I think from Speedmaster values.

We are in a period where second rate watches are being offered for considerably more than they were last year, and not selling. I do not mean second rate as an insult. I am talking about a watch that is bought and can be enjoyed on the wrist regularly and not worried about. This is actually may favorite watch to wear and it rightly has a strong interest in the collector comunity.

Another kind of quality, lets call it third rate, is where the watch has lost appeal, has missmatched or non original parts, paperclips in the movement . These are now being seen for what they are, watches needing a lot of money to bring up to an attractive state, and frankly, why bother? People sometimes do not spot the difference between Second rate and third rate.

Recently there have been a lot of Rolex refugees looking at Speedmasters as an alternative, and the demand is widening for Speedmasters. The price has risen sharply in the last year, and now we are seeing very modest increases in values.

I do think the number of people interested in speedmasters is rising.

Will prices for Vintage Speedmasters fall?

Vintage Speedmasters now almost all come from collectors or dealers.

Gone are the days of Ebay listing 5 to 10 private speedmasters a month. So the source of stock in the maret has changed, and so has the pricing ethos. Everyone wants to sell for more than they bought, and dealers have to or else they starve. So a fall would require a lot of collectors to all turn around and sell. I think this is unlikely, and even if they did, there is a finite number of these watches. Far fewer than Rolex of any given model ( I use the term model to represent the name of the line, "Speedmaster" "Daytona" etc). So while it could happen that all the collectors dump thier collections, I dont think it is that many watches in the grand scheme, and also once the flood passes, demand, and price will rise.

Adidionally for the price of speedmasters to fall, it has to follow the Rolex market, and that is strong at the moment. It seems any fool who bought a Sub and a GMT two years ago made money. (Well this fool did).

We see every major Auction house running specialist watch departments, not to mention WOK which is entirely watch based.

I think the feeling that some of us have about the sluggishness on the sales forum is that prices asked have been optimistic, and that if those asking prices were reduced to those of 12 months ago then they would sell in a flash - so could be priced a little higher to sell at a more leisurly pace.

So I do not think (well I am pretty much certain) the Actual Transaction Price is falling. I think the asking prices went higher and trading values are the same or slightly higher than six months ago.

Whats Next

As I said, the speedmaster market has evolved, into, well that - a market. Many of us hovered up what we liked long ago when it was a game, a hobby, a diversion when speedmasters were not the price of a car. Now, with higher values, its all got a bit serious. There are some big money collectors buying expensive speedmasters. I think that prices for some Speedmasters are rising. I can tell you for a fact the racing dials, the blue dials and the oddities are rising. One owner watches are selling far above the price of a Chrono24 dealers standard - these watches are moving between collectors without coming to public view. So those prices are strong.

I think that future speedmaster sales will be strong, for attractive watches and attractive packages. There is a huge difference from a Chrono24 dealer selling a tarted up watch as opposed to a barn find from a family source. Or a collector selling a currated watch.

I see a further divergence between a watch bought for a grass roots collector to use, wear and enjoy, and a trophy watch (aqcured I imagine by a Singapore/NY Billionaire on his 55th floor), to be kept boxed in the safe next to its papers. However much you might object to the concept of a Safe Queen that is where the big money is.

Pricing watches between those two qualites (wearable and MIB+P) is tough. For example a 1978 mint in box with papers sold for $10,000. there is a 1978 on the forum for Euros 2700 and I would rather have the latter to enjoy and wear. But the former will be worth the same or more in the future, and therefore safer to put money into. Top quality always sells, and people who overpay for it rarely regret it.

Also it is a little like Bitcoin. It "CRASHED" from $19k to 8K and everyone paniced. Exept 12 months previous to the "crash" it was about $800. So have bitcoin prices fallen?

Same with speedasters. They are a little more than 12 months ago for market staples and about 30% up for specials.

Oh dear. A ramble

 

We must be at a buyer's market...

 

Certainly a confusing market

 

I assumed many are watching to get info on current market price for similar pieces they own.

 

Not to me. (Only after long thought and writing that interminable post above)

Good examples are selling well, strongly to knowledgable people.

Poor examples are being offered at prices beyond what people will pay.

Pleasant usable attractive examples are selling for the same price as last year, or a little more, BUT are often offered too high, so selling against an offer or not at all if the seller is stubborn.

 

Your assessment is excellent. To me, outside of Speedmasters (and vintage Rolex stainless sports), it’s a little wacky. Possibly because I don’t pay much attention to modern sales.

 

Frustrating

 

I must say I agree when looking at the wider picture.
One thing that has always made me wonder, who pays $1000+ for a ropey looking old watch I have never heard of?
Then I start to wonder who pays $500 for an even ropier one.

 

But a very good ramble

 

Hodinkeeites who think they've missed the boat on the mainstream names that have doubled in value over the last 2-3 years... so they are looking for the next FLATERNAE Incabloc 17 Rubis "poorman's Heuer"?

 

Regarding the vintage Moonwatch Speedmaster market, @Spacefruit asessment is correct. With ever expanding buyer knowledge this market has certainly matured. Gone are the days when a Moonwatch buyer looked only at the reference and price and made an, otherwise uninformed, decision. Now dozens of watch aspects are studied and compared with an ever growing database of Moonwatch knowledge. The same is true for the casual seller as well.

While prices have solidified for lesser Moonwatches, the same can not be said of the other Omega trilogy watches. Straight lug Seamaster 300s, Railmasters and even Rancheros are rising in price at all levels of watch condition. The reasons for his are not hard to accertain. Supply of these watches and knowledge are very limited. If Daytona supply far exceeds that of Moonwatches, the same can be said when comparing Moonwatches vs their less known straight lug cousins.

Here is a current eBay example as a bit of proof.

https://rover.ebay.com/rover/0/0/0?mpre=https://www.ebay.com/ulk/itm/282866484389

1st generation SM300 2913-5 with disclosed issues. Wrong hands, redone bezel (not very well), unattractive dial but big buyer interest. The seller wanted $8500 at the time of listing and probably would have accepted a bit less. I’m certain he is pleased that his initial price was not met. With over 3 days to go, the auction is at $6600.

 

If we have Rolex refuges migrating to Speedmasters, I think we're also seeing people switch from Speedmasters to other Omega models.

Personally, I don't think I've bought a Speedmaster for around 18 months. I enjoy the hunt and picking up single owner, 'barn finds'. Speedmasters in this condition are still out there and I'm still actively searching but it's much slimmer pickings. Buying from a dealer just takes all the fun out of it for me.

I still need my fix so I've started looking at other models which are a) still available occasionally on places like eBay, b) don't have a wealth of easily accessible information online, so more leg work is required on the part of the buyer, and c) don't have a famous name/event attached to them. As soon as "Seamaster 300 Only/101" are published or Christies holds a dedicated Seamaster themed sale, I would bet good money that prices of associated models will increase as vintage watches are so mainstream at the minute.

Anyway as a result, I've bought a gaggle if watches over the last 18 months that I wouldn't have considered 2 years ago. It's an evolving picture so I'm finding myself buying watches because I like the overall package - direct from original owner, original box/papers/bracelet, scratched crystal, poor pictures etc, only to find that although I can appreciate it, I don't actually end up wearing it so it's get sold and I move into the next. Nevertheless, it's opening me up too models that didn't used to interest me and some do end up staying in my collection.

I get the impression other collectors are broadening their horizons as well. Omega Seamaster 600's and unishell DeVilles for example have certainly seen increases over the last 12 months. New collectors are certainly having an effect as well as vintage watche collecting continues to rise in popularity.

As others have alluded to, the perceived rise in popularity does seem to have led to some sellers getting a little ahead of themselves and/or the curve with asking prices. However, with prices and desirability being so fluid at the minute it can be tough to set an asking price. I recently listed a watch for what I thought was a reasonably high but fair price, given the desirability and condition. I then received about 7 offers to buy within a couple of hours and one person offered to add almost 50% onto the price if I sold to them instead of the actual buyer.

Ramble #2!

 

If you haven't been watching, the Private Sales forum is pretty hot. A lot of nice watches are going quickly. So hot, in fact, I'm thinking of listing my wife to see what the market thinks she's worth.

 

Remember... 3 pics

 

Including the caseback and movement.

 

Yes... but a very informative and encouraging ramble.

 

This thread is kind of funny, a quick scan shows about 8 of the top 11 listing currently marked as SOLD or OHPF in the Private Sales area. Snapshot in time, but still doesn’t seem too alarming.

 

Does the way you 'do the deal' effect the way things move?

In the last year or so I can't count the number of posts I've read in which buyers are anxious to "pull the trigger on a deal" but hesitate for some reason. For those with limited experience and cash, buying (or selling) a watch worth thousands of dollars can be a risky business. Property or 'real estate' markets need to move from the bottom up, but I suppose that's not always the case with watches where some buyers are wealthy and can afford to buy more than one item at a time with out the need to sell first.

I've read one or two posts, recently, in which keen but inexperienced buyers are looking to buy a particular Speedmaster reference, but hesitate or back out because they don't have the experience to avoid getting 'stitched up'. They're worried that it may be a 'Franken', incorrect or a 'scamm'!

I was explaining this worry to my lovely new missus this evening. She was horrified at the connection between her native Peru and "Internet Scammers"!

She said " Amore mio!... I feenk yoo need tell yooz watch peoples deez 'scamma' are not Peruanas from dee Andes likeaah my family... daay are dee foriegn bandidos fromahh Lima!" I said "I'll give it go girl!... but they aint gonna give a 'fakk' who's on the end of it!... they're more concerned with avoiding all of you!"

Anyway!... All of these things are a a source of anxiety and concern to the keen, new buyer or 'family watch' seller, and may contribute, in a small way, to a sluggish market on some items such as the lower priced, post 1970's, Omega Speedmasters. 'Buyer beware' turns into 'buyer wants to buy... but doesn't buy... until buyer feels confident'. $3000 or $4000 is a lot of money to some people. Too much to risk on an uncertain deal.

That being the case, my question is this:
The private sales forum seems to work OK for you experienced chaps...but do you collectors ever get involved in a 'safe for both parties deal' that doesn't involve simply sending loads of dosh around the world on the strength of some fuzzy watch photographs? If not???... Why not?

Now I know this can't apply for most deals but here is my personal, favourite senario for selling and buying an Omega Speedmaster:

1) Collector likes my watch. and has a cheaper watch that I might like as a 'wear everyday watch'.

2) We work out a cash adjustment between the two watches.

3) Both watches go to a reputable service centre, such as STS or Simon Freese Watchmakers in the UK.

4) The cheaper watch is serviced as part of the deal.

5) Expensive watch is removed from bracelet and checked by watchmaker.

6) Collector deposits cash adjustment into my bank account. I instruct watchmaker to release or send expensive watch and paperwork to collector.

7) Serviced cheaper watch is fitted to bracelet and I collect my new watch and paperwork from watchmaker.

Both collector and myself are safe in the knowledge that the quality control and safe dispatch of the watches are in the hands the highly respected watchmaker... Watchmaker gets a nice little service job out of the deal... Risk free deal and everybody goes away happy.

 

I can't convince anyone else of this, but people who are part of this community are really invested in staying in this community and running off with one watch that is worth $10k when all their other watches amount to 50k+ just isn't a huge draw. For me and you "small timers" this does seem crazy but for some of the bigger players it isn't a big deal to send and receive money in such a casual fashion. If they have references and people know their name or they have been to get-togethers it isn't the craziest thing to give them a little trust.
If you really are this worried (and it is okay to be) try consigning the watch with a high falootin' dealer. A couple of thousand dollars may very well be worth your peace-of-mind. Another option is to do face-2-face deal.

All that said I don't think that has any tangible impact on the Speedmaster market, but it is a good cover to talk more about your situation and get some help. I think you should consider starting a general thread or even a WTT thread. You're a beloved member here and I'm sure someone from around these parts would be interested in doing some kind of a swap with you for your watch.

I do wonder if with rising prices Speedy's get priced off of eBay, where bank wire is required once prices hit a certain amount. That probably will scare off some from listing there and feed watches into the dealer network.