Repost courtesy of Jeff Stein at OnTheDash
http://www.chronocentric.com/forums/heuer/index.cgi?page=1;md=read;id=83406

Basically Swatch group sales are down 16% and as the represent such a large slice of the market and diverse brands it implies the industry is in a major down turn

Any thoughts on what will this will mean for prices and if it will influence the bullish vintage market? My wild guesses are more discounting so bargains to be had plus I think most vintage watches still represent good value compared to the modern ones and with other investment opportunities hard to find prices will continue to rise, or they could plummet

 

The good news is, no member here is in for the money - only for the passion!

Right, guys?!?

 

You ain't seen nothin' yet. The credit/debt-fueld growth that has spiraled out of control is now sputtering, and contraction is inevitable.

 

I think for the Speedmaster at least you are definitely right. Many of the vintage ones discussed here daily go for less than full retail on a modern standard Speedy. And you can still get some of the rarer ones for less than the price of some of the newer limited editions. The mid 70s models to me are a real sweet spot as they can be had with a service for less than the grey market discounted price of a modern Speedy most of the time. Vintage Speedmasters are kind of like land - there may be a lot of it (or them), but they aren't making any more.

 

My personal experience in recent months in looking for 2nd hand pieces, following some new items and selling some of my watches is that the effects are being felt in new and near-new 2nd hand and modern watches

Stalwarts like recent and not-so-old models of Speedies & Rolexes have stayed the same, so in reality have dropped slightly in real terms. This is only for the couple of models that I have been tracking as part of my "One day Plan" - as in One day, I'll lash and and get one.

New prices are being tumbled, in two ways.

There are new models with extra features at the same price points of similar models - Noms for example

Over-stocks through grey markets are seeing brands that traditionally never dealt with them, now having access to stock and offering discounts that are significant.

That is not to say that you might have been able to get a better deal at an AD , but advertised sticker price.

Nomos again springs to mind, and Rolex can be seen at 30% off instead of the typical 2-3%

For me trying to sell some items that were NOT in the universally longed-for category, seems like everytime I pick something to liquidate, one of the grey sellers goes and sticks it on sale for a new, low,low,low price.

Not sure about rare or truly vintage, but that is my $0.02 worth

 

No innovation = no growth.

 

Prices on accessories increased at the OB where I am. I did not ask about the watches, but I assume it is the same.

 

The main problem for the industry right now is the stock!

Almost every brand just made too much stock and some of them actually have to re-buy their own stock right now! In other words what was just a demand problem is turning into a structural problem.

In Geneva there's a place called Ports-Francs which is the major free economic zone in Switzerland. The stock of watches inthere is estimated to more than a billion USD!!

Most of the brands recently build up new factorys or updated their old one, bringing up to... over productivity. Right now the watchmaking production in Switzerland is half waht it could be...

This crisis is just beginning... winter is coming!

 

Factor in the down-tuen in the chinese economy and their recent changes to luxury goods taxes and the swiss watch glut will only get worse as far as I can see.

 

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful" - Warren Buffett

Starting to feel greedy..

 

I don't know what it will do to the vintage market but hopefully the watch manufacturers will change for the better as a result of all this. I'd seriously consider getting back into modern if the following happened:

- Greatly improve customer service especially turnaround times.
- Selling parts to material houses again so anyone can buy the parts.
- Release technical service documents.
- Not charge so much for the product but at the same time not discount the product. Charging a lot allows for discounting imo as it encourages discounting to make a sale as a means to make a sale.

 

There's tough times ahead for the entire planet. The way things are going, we'll be lucky to survive 3 more generations.

 

Watches to the 3 generations...
.

 

What is most concerning about this sobering assessment is that Patek Philippe may be forced to change its iconic marketing line:

“You never actually own a Patek Philippe, you merely look after it for the next generation (assuming that there will be one)”